How can LAYing pay?

[thunderfoot]

Obviously there are those that can make money by LAYing , but logically it doesn't make sense. Bookmakers make their money by LAYing bets AND they have a 20%'ish margin to work with; on Betfair that margin is down to 1%-2%, so if a Bookmaker (the undisputed experts!!!) need a 20% margin to make money how can a humble individual beat the system?? I've got 10 years (Yes, 10 years!!) of UK Horseracing data and if you placed a £1 LAY bet on every horse in every race £1, compared to placing a £1 BACK bet on every horse in every race, both end up losing money, but the loss's on LAY's far outweigh the loss's on BACK's.

Moral .... avoid LAYs!!!

[slapdash]

A big difference is that individuals can pick and choose which horses to lay,
and bookmakers can't.

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

Do more research..

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

A big difference is that individuals can pick and choose which horses to lay,
and bookmakers can't.

Exactly what I was going to post.

[thunderfoot]

Oh well ... I stand corrected!!!

[Shangamuzo]

Dont even think about it long-term you've got no chance mate.

[aliando]

same as backing mate - you look for value and make sure you're picking well!

[Hoprock]

Originally Posted by aliando

same as backing mate - you look for value and make sure you're picking well!

I'd second that Aliando, at the end of the day, if you can consistently lay 6/4 shots at Even Money, you will make money. I've got a place laying thread over on the Glory Hunters section, it's been a bit patchy lately but it's currently showing a +14% ROI.

I think as a previous poster mentioned, you can choose to lay certain horses in tricky handicaps for example rather than having to price up every horse in every race as the traditional bookies have to.

[happygooner]

I would just add to this that it's already documented in 2 very popular threads that you can win and that if doing it properly you can make a very nice profit.

The infamous maria laying thread of course and another I have recently found by a bloke called speedhorse.

Potential is there to lose huge if you don't know what you're doing but there is no denying imo that some do know what they are doing and are really maximising the potential out there!

[SteveO]

Laying does pay as long as you're very selective and disciplined. If you lay a horse at 2/1 (3.0)effectively you're backing the field to win at 1/2 and things can seem different from this perspective.

[Cassius Marcellus]

From a value point of view, if a horse starts at 2/1, you should be able to lay it at under 2/1 in running on Betfair. You now have the value, and just because it shortened in price does not mean it will win.

It works the same in reverse, backing a 2/1 shot at a larger price in running gives you the value, but you won't always win.

I like to back a favourite with Spencer up on it. Not a lot of people have time for Jamie and with his 'come late' style and odds drift quite quickly in running. I backed him about a month ago on an 11/8 chance, at 6/1. He was in last place of seven, and cruising, so I have no idea who starts the ball rolling with these daft odds. It won comfortably. Last year in September IIRC, I got 34.0 for his horse, the 7/2 favourite. All he was waiting for was a gap. It wasn't guaranteed to come, but at 33s with the horse on the bridle, you have to chance it, or lay those around it.

[lunatism]

for long term success, it's best to have a great deal of past data (let's call it pasta...i'm starving) to look over and spot trends with. once you can be sure (if there ever is such a word) of your strike rate, you can plan your staking plan from there, and should all go to plan - you will end up turning £3,000 into £100,000 in a year as Maria did....

i think you need to find the balance between laying at high odds with an amazing strike rate (that would get severly dented after a couple of losses), or laying at lower odds with not such a high strike rate (but with the bank being hit for less if you should suffer a loss).

once you have the balance (oh ye....you need a some kind of method or system first too i guess) sorted, you will find that laying pays extremely well.

i just think that until the Maria success, there weren't many publicised successes coming from that neck of the woods. so many would be led to believe it would be extremely hard to make consistent profit from it - making wads and wads of cash from gambling isn't meant to be easy though!!! And i'm of the belief that there are many people who have made fortunes from it though, and who knows - maybe one day you come across one while browsing this forum! (right Goon?!!!)

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by lunatism

And i'm of the belief that there are many people who have made fortunes from it though, and who knows - maybe one day you come across one while browsing this forum! (right Goon?!!!)

I'll let you know in a while mate haha!

[TheJoker]

You have to lay at very short prices (so you are effectively backing at decent prices). For me this usually involves place laying favourites. I don't do it blindly, I usually lay last time out handicap winners and/or horses with question marks regarding the going or distance, or preferably both!

[spartacus]

[edit]

Has anyone seen this bloke , he can make laying pay without a doubt.
Ive been following his grail thing for a while and its free to view with this link ,
fill ye boots
: nana

[Cassius Marcellus]

It's a pretty good bet that if you lay every odds on shot in a season, at the end you will be in front. What you have to avoid is a long run of winners.
It was said many years ago that if you were a 'high roller' and you only back horses with odds of worse than 1/2, you would win as a backer.

Logically, if you lay those between 8/15 (1.53) and 10/11 (1.91) you will be a winner.

Up to the end of racing today, there have been 50 odds on favourites this flat season. 7 of those were worse than 1/2 (1.5) leaving 43 that weren't.

Here they are, with what you would get if you layed every one to lose you £100.





In the following posts there will be the same races, but sorted by class of race, distance of race, and number of runners.

Filtering stops too many winners. I was going to do this at the end of the season, but with the amount of racing this year I'd be here until Xmas sorting it all out.

Obviously it's early days in the racing year, but patterns are already forming.

I hope all the figures are right on the first sheet, because they've all been copied and pasted to the other sheets.

The prices shown are the Starting Prices. If you aim to lay every horse at a lower price than it's S.P. in running, this will increase the profit margin.

Even when they shorten up a lot in running, and appear to going easier than their rivals, that should be the time to lay, as you are laying at less than S.P.

If none of this makes any sense, don't be surprised as I'm knackered.

[Cassius Marcellus]

Well that was clever, I can't get them all on one page

[Cassius Marcellus]

I'll try and shrink the feckers

[Cassius Marcellus]

[Cassius Marcellus]

I'm just going outside to kill next doors cat...