You never know in trading...

[friskyfitz]

Gonna start a thread which may not or may not have some posts in it..

Idea came last night when Chelsea went 3-0 up on Olympiakos. The draw odds jumped out to 780.0 at one stage with just 51 minutes played. I matched it for €50 there and then. It ended up as a €50 loss but had Olympiakos scored in the next 5-10 minutes the odds would have fallen greatly - Perhaps allowing a trading match at about 60.0-80.0. Using this principle - I would have had a clear €425 profit on Chelsea or Olympiakos win and €1,425 on the draw by laying €475 back at odds of 80. Obviously this could easily go wrong if Chelsea scored again but its a chance you take.

Gonna see if I can use this over the next few months and I will attach screenshots for all trades. Id only expect 1 or 2 trades every forthnight or so but sometimes much much less than that..

Lets see where it leads us....

EDIT - MOVED THIS THREAD INTO THE PUBLIC DOMAIN AS I DID NOT REALISE THAT IT WAS IN THE PRIVATE FORUMS UNTIL DATAPUNTER TOLD ME.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Ive done similiar once or twice but the other way round. Laying a team at really short odds while winning and then backing back when the other team scores. Not on any permenant basis, just one offs. Risky for sure but interested to see how you do.

[friskyfitz]

Im very familiar with the method you used W.F.T.E. However i feel there may be a bigger profit working this way due to the massive fluctuation of odds. Even at 0-3 behind, with 39 minutes left, I felt last night's true draw odds should have been about 200.0 and certainly not 780.0 which got matched. 1 goal would have sent the layers running with fear.... By laying the team that are 3-0 up @ 1.01, If they concede, they will most likely rest at about 1.10 or 1.12 so Im not too sure which is the better option to be honest. At 1.01 you could lay for a backing state of £5000 to risk your £50 and If they went as far as 1.12 then you can back for the original £5000 to allow you at best £500 win on the short priced team. I feel that with my method Id have £425 or both home and away plus £1425 on the draw but had I split it 3 ways I could have had £437.50 on all outcomes - I didnt have any software operating on this last night I feel that this is a better long term prospect as all options are covered this way and prevents a disaster on the impossible happening...

Of course - All this is theory with figures and odds and you'll need to find a very well backed side too. When Marseille went 3-0 up tonight the odds didnt come any way close to 300 for some time let alone close to 800.

[friskyfitz]

Exactly 2 weeks on and not one selection. Went close twice when over 3.5 goals went to 13.5 and 13.0 after just 25 and 22 minutes of 2 different games but both stayed roughly about those prices until half time and the chance was lost

Just not seen any good value bets to strike yet..

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Well if nothing else at least its showing a good display of discipline. It must have been tempting to place a bet that wasn't quite right after 2 weeks of nothing.

[friskyfitz]

Originally Posted by WorkingForTheEnemy

Well if nothing else at least its showing a good display of discipline. It must have been tempting to place a bet that wasn't quite right after 2 weeks of nothing.

It was. However, better chances will present themselves. Sometimes, close fought games lead to silly prices and one sided matches the same. All it takes then is a moment of genius or a crazy mistake and the layers are running for cover and thats when you make your kill. Only one game in that time has seen anything like a matchable bet but I was working at the time

[friskyfitz]

Finally got my first bet on tonight at Half Time in Fenerbache v Chelsea.


Fenerbache at 23.0 at home to Chelsea and only 0-1 down. Not playing very well but 23.0 is too big for me.

Screenshot to follow.

Hoping to trade out on this one if the price is right

Hope this one was worth the wait

[friskyfitz]

1-1.

Not gonna trade out though as I feel 7.0 is too big at the moment for Fenerbache still. Was hoping for 4.0 or 5.0 but 7.0 is simply too big and I'll take a chance in holding out

[friskyfitz]

Layed back my original €50 bet at 7.6 for a free bet of €820 on a fenerbache win. Kinda sorry I did but Chelsea are looking more likely to nick another

Green out with €0.00 on both Chelsea win and Draw

[friskyfitz]

2-1

Layed Fene at 1.21 for €21 so far

Fene - €780
Draw - €100
Chelsea - €100

[friskyfitz]

Layed Fene at 1.13 for €52 to clear at least €500 and guard against last minute disaster

Fene - €747
Draw - €500
Chelsea - €500

[friskyfitz]

Worth the wait.

Sorry that I traded out for the free bet but that was simply a safety measure and something that you HAVE to do sometimes

[friskyfitz]

[friskyfitz]

Number of Trades - 1
Winners - 1
Green Outs/Free bet - 0
Losers - 0

Profit - €709.65

[stewartd14]

Brilliant stuff mate.

[Tulenos]

[Tulenos]

BTW - never checked the prices, but Bolton v Arsenal at the weekend must have been near it, alhough the price on Arsenal @ HT was probably much lower

[friskyfitz]

Originally Posted by Tulenos

BTW - never checked the prices, but Bolton v Arsenal at the weekend must have been near it, alhough the price on Arsenal @ HT was probably much lower

Was working so missed it. Possibly an option if the price was right but I'll never know!

[friskyfitz]

Looking to get my second bet down tonight...

Roma or Schalke are the most likely opportunities but we'll see....

[staffy]

Nice one on the first bet mate. good luck tonight.