World Cup Lay Group Draws System

[davidc]

I've been lookling to develop a system for the World Cup and thought that there may be some potential in this.

The average number of draws in the (1st) group stage over the last 5 World Cups is 26.95% with a high in 1998 of 33.33% and a low in 1990 of 19.45%.

The average price for the draw for all group games (as shown @ www.betbase.info) is currently 3.99 which on the face of it could mean (if the bookies have got their sums right) that there may be some value in backing draws @ less than 4.0 but you would need a strike rate of better than 26.95% to acheive a profit.

With this in mind the system will do the reverse and will be to lay all group draws with lay odds @ Betfair of 4.0 or more.

I haven't done any back testing for previous World Cups and perhaps my logic is flawed but I will be placing bets (and keeping my fingers crossed ) using this system.

Simple system really - now lets hope that it works!

Starting bank will be 100 points and all lays will be with 2 points liability.

[davidmphill]

Good luck David.

[davidc]

Thanks for the reply, David.

Bets for matches this weekend:

Germany v Costa Rica: Lay Draw @ 6.4 for liability 2 points.

Trinadad & Tobago v Sweden: Lay Draw @ 6.6 for liability 2 points.

Angola v Portugal Lay: Draw @ 5.1 for liability 2 points.

It is possible that there may be other games (e.g England v Paraguay is currently trading @ 3.95) and these will be added in if and when they reach the 4.0 threshold.

Fingers crossed

[Aliaspat]

Hi David

I was just looking around on the net for some info about laying draws and saw your post.

I've been looking into this and I think that especially in the world cup you could be on to something, the stats over the last few would definitely indicate that.

However I've been looking into ways of capping the large liability on these bets, because a couple that did not come in would make you suffer - betting after a goal, backing a 0-0, etc. Nothing new I know, but I still think there could be some money in it.

Time of goal, if the underdog scores first etc, are all considerations for me.

Anyway I'll be keeping a close eye on your thread through the games and wish you all the best with it!

Aliaspat

[davidc]

Hi Aliaspat and welcome to The Punters Lounge

This system is just about a bit of fun for the World Cup and although I hope to make a profit I'm not risking very much on each match @ £10 per point.

Given the odds it looks like a strike rate of 80% or better will be required to be successful so if there are 16 qualifying matches (i.e. matches where the price to lay the draw is 4.0 or more) then we would need to have 13 winners to produce a profit.

There is definitely money to be made using strategies such as the ones which you suggest, it is just a matter of finding the right one!

Good luck with your bets.

[davidc]

As expected another selection for tomorrow:

England v Paraguay: Lay Draw @ 4.0 for 2 points liability.

Good luck!

[davidc]

Results so far:

Germany v Costa Rica: Lay Draw @ 6.4 for liability 2 points. WON

Trinadad & Tobago v Sweden: Lay Draw @ 6.6 for liability 2 points. LOST

Angola v Portugal Lay: Draw @ 5.1 for liability 2 points. WON

England v Paraguay: Lay Draw @ 4.0 for 2 points liability. WON

Total staked 8
Total returned 7.44
Number of bets 4
Winning bets 3
Losing bets 1
Strike rate 75%
Profit/Loss -0.56
Yield -7%

No bets on Monday.

[davidc]

One bet for Tuesday and one for Wednesday:

Brazil v Crotia: Lay Draw @ 4.9 for 2 points liability.

Germany v Poland: Lay Draw @ 4.1 for 2 points liability.

Good luck!!

[davidc]

Updated results and stats.

Brazil v Crotia: Lay Draw @ 4.9 for 2 points liability. WON

Germany v Poland: Lay Draw @ 4.1 for 2 points liability. WON

Total staked 12
Total returned 12.54
Number of bets 6
Winning bets 5
Losing bets 1
Strike rate 83.33%
Profit/Loss + 0.54
Yield 4.5%

One bet for Thursday and one for Friday:

England v Paraguay: Lay Draw @ 8.8 for 2 points liability.

Mexico v Angola: Lay Draw @ 4.2 for 2 points liability.

[davidc]

Updated results and stats:

England v Paraguay: Lay Draw @ 8.8 for 2 points liability. WON

Mexico v Angola: Lay Draw @ 4.2 for 2 points liability. LOST

Total staked 16
Total returned 14.78
Number of bets 8
Winning bets 6
Losing bets 2
Strike rate 75%
Profit/Loss - 1.22
Yield -7.62%

Bets for Saturday and Sunday:

Portugal v Iran: Lay Draw @ 5.3 for 2 points liability.

Italy v USA: Lay Draw @ 4.8 for 2 points liability.

Brazil v Australia: Lay Draw @ 7.2 for 2 points liability.

France v South Korea: Lay draw @ 4.8 for 2 points liability.

[davidc]

Results and updated stats:

Portugal v Iran: Lay Draw @ 5.3 for 2 points liability. WON

Italy v USA: Lay Draw @ 4.8 for 2 points liability. LOST

Brazil v Australia: Lay Draw @ 7.2 for 2 points liability. WON

France v South Korea: Lay draw @ 4.8 for 2 points liability. LOST

A bit of a setback for the system with 3 out of the last 5 losing.

Total staked 24
Total returned 19.52
Number of bets 12
Winning bets 8
Losing bets 4
Strike rate 66.67%
Profit/Loss - 4.48
Yield -18.67%

Three bets for tomorrow

Togo v Switzerland: Lay Draw @ 4.6 for 2 points liability.

Saudi Arabia v Ukraine: Lay Draw @ 4.6 gor 2 points liability.

Spain v Tunisia: Lay Draw @ 5.3 for 2 points liability.

[davidc]

Results and updated stats:

Togo v Switzerland: Lay Draw @ 4.6 for 2 points liability. WON

Saudi Arabia v Ukraine: Lay Draw @ 4.6 gor 2 points liability. WON

Spain v Tunisia: Lay Draw @ 5.3 for 2 points liability. WON

Total staked 30
Total returned 27.04
Number of bets 15
Winning bets 11
Losing bets 4
Strike rate 73.3%
Profit/Loss - 2.96
Yield -9.87%

One bet for tomorrow:

Germany v Equador: Lay Draw @ 4.3 for 2 points liability.

[davidc]

Results and updated stats:

Germany v Equador: Lay Draw @ 4.3 for 2 points liability. WON

Total staked 32
Total returned 29.62
Number of bets 16
Winning bets 12
Losing bets 4
Strike rate 75%
Profit/Loss - 2.38
Yield -7.44%

One bet for tomorrow:

Japan v Brazil: Lay Draw @ 6.4 for 2 points liability.

[davidc]

Results and updated stats:

Japan v Brazil: Lay Draw @ 6.4 for 2 points liability. WON

Total staked 34
Total returned 21.98
Number of bets 17
Winning bets 13
Losing bets 4
Strike rate 76.5%
Profit/Loss - 2.02
Yield -5.94%

Two final bets for tomorrow:

Saudi Arabia v Spain: Lay Draw @ 7.8 for 2 points liability.

Togo v France: Lay Draw @ 8.8 for 2 points liability.

[AJ]

I think these take you into profit and yield of around 8%

Well done

[davidc]

Final results and stats:

Saudi Arabia v Spain: Lay Draw @ 7.8 for 2 points liability. WON

Togo v France: Lay Draw @ 8.8 for 2 points liability. WON

Total staked 38
Total returned 36.50
Number of bets 19
Winning bets 15
Losing bets 4
Strike rate 78.9%
Profit/Loss - 1.50
Yield -3.95%

Looks like it would have been better to have backed all draws @ 4.0 or over, although it would probably have been a very small profit.