Underpuppies, Underdogs and The Under-rated - The Punters Lounge

Hands Solo · 04-02-2007, 19:54

This thread is dedicated to betting on certain selections on a team whose match odds are so long that they aren't just underdogs but underpuppies! 4 Selections from each match, always on Match Odds, 2-0 and 3-0 wins and HT/FT bet of draw/underdog. I do have a selection criteria for the matches but don't wish to reveal this for the time being.

Match Odds bets are 30pts, 10pts on the rest. Stakes may be raised in future. Done some backtesting and am very confident that this will be a long term winning system.

Hands Solo · 04-02-2007, 19:55

First bet is now:

Osasuna v Barcelona

30pts Osasuna to win @ 4.8
10pts Draw/Osasuna HT/FT @ 11.5
10pts Osasuna 2-0 @ 40
10pts Osasuna 3-0 @ 146.84 average

All bets done with Betfair

Hands Solo · 04-02-2007, 22:04

FT Osasuna 0-0 Barcelona

Osasuna had their chances but didn't convert. Disappointing result given the way the game unfolded

Hands Solo · 07-02-2007, 17:45

To try and give the system better longevity an Asian Handicap bet will now be taken. The actual handicap will vary but in general will be the option which is priced nearest to evens.

Still quite confident that what I've worked on is going to be profitable, just need to find the right way to pursue it. Next games will be posted on the weekend.

Osesame · 07-02-2007, 17:55

I would guess that the type of matches you are looking at have a high chance of 0-0.

Hands Solo · 07-02-2007, 17:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osesame

I would guess that the type of matches you are looking at have a high chance of 0-0.

The perceived probability of a 0-0 isn't something that is considered in selecting the games. Perhaps due to other criteria this may be more likely, the number of 0-0s in backtesting doesn't appear to differ from the norm.

Hands Solo · 09-02-2007, 19:28

First bet for the weekend. A few games planned, some I am hopeful on and others not so. Will probably continue to adjust and change selection and staking strategy.

System: UPV1.0.1
Bet #: 1
League: English Premier League
Match: Newcastle v Liverpool

50pts Newcastle +0.5 @ 1.94
40pts Newcastle to win @ 4.4
25pts Newcastle to win 2-0 @ 30
25pts Newcastle to win 3-0 @ 100
10pts HT/FT Draw/Newcastle @ 9.6

All bets with Betfair

Hands Solo · 10-02-2007, 12:27

System: UPV1.0.1
Bet #: 2
League: English Premier League
Match: Chelsea v Middlesbrough

25pts Middlesbrough +1.5 @ 1.95
20pts Middlesbrough to win @ 15.5
12.5pts Middlesbroughto win 2-0 @ 100
12.5pts Middlesbrough to win 3-0 @ 700
10pts HT/FT Draw/Middlesbrough @ 32

All bets with Betfair

Hands Solo · 10-02-2007, 12:44

System: UPV1.0.1
Bet #: 3
League: German Bundesliga
Match: Stuttgart v Bremen

50pts Stuttgart +0.5 @ 1.55 (Centrebet)
40pts Stuttgart to win @ 3.25
25pts Stuttgart to win 2-0 @ 28
25pts Stuttgart to win 3-0 @ 60
10pts HT/FT Draw/Stuttgart @ 8.4

Other bets with Betfair

Hands Solo · 10-02-2007, 17:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

Match: Stuttgart v Bremen

50pts Stuttgart +0.5 @ 1.55 (Centrebet) WIN
40pts Stuttgart to win @ 3.25 WIN
25pts Stuttgart to win 2-0 @ 28 LOST
25pts Stuttgart to win 3-0 @ 60 LOST
10pts HT/FT Draw/Stuttgart @ 8.4 LOST

After commission the Stuttgart to win bet returns 85.95pts
The Stuttgart +0.5 bet returns 27.5pts
The 3 losing bets total -60pts

Total return +73.45

Hands Solo · 10-02-2007, 17:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

Match: Chelsea v Middlesbrough

25pts Middlesbrough +1.5 @ 1.95 LOST
20pts Middlesbrough to win @ 15.5 LOST
12.5pts Middlesbroughto win 2-0 @ 100 LOST
12.5pts Middlesbrough to win 3-0 @ 700 LOST
10pts HT/FT Draw/Middlesbrough @ 32 LOST

Well...embarrassing to think I bet on that match the way I did.

Loss of -80pts

Hands Solo · 10-02-2007, 17:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

Match: Newcastle v Liverpool

50pts Newcastle +0.5 @ 1.94 WON
40pts Newcastle to win @ 4.4 WON
25pts Newcastle to win 2-0 @ 30 LOST
25pts Newcastle to win 3-0 @ 100 LOST
10pts HT/FT Draw/Newcastle @ 9.6 WON

After commission the Newcastle to win bet returns +129.88pts
After commission the Newcastle +0.5 bet returns +46.53pts
After commission the Draw/Newcastle bet returns +82.13pts
The 2 losing bets total -50pts

Profit on the game of +208.54

Hands Solo · 10-02-2007, 17:17

System: UPV1.0.1
Staked: 380pts
Returned: 581.99pts
Profit/Loss: +201.99pts
Yield: +53%

NB - Loss of 60pts on UPV1.0.0

Hands Solo · 10-02-2007, 18:17

System: UPV1.0.1
Bet #: 4
League: Spanish Primera Liga
Match: Real Sociedad v Real Madrid

50pts Real Sociedad +0.5 @ 2.02
40pts Real Sociedad to win @ 4.6
25pts Real Sociedadto win 2-0 @ 37
25pts Real Sociedad to win 3-0 @ 110
10pts HT/FT Draw/Real Sociedad @ 10.5

Hands Solo · 10-02-2007, 18:22

System: UPV1.0.1
Bet #: 5
League: French Ligue 1
Match: Lyon v Lorient

25pts Lorient +1.5 @ 1.84
20pts Lorient to win @ 13.5
12.5pts Lorient to win 2-0 @ 90
12.5pts Lorient to win 3-0 @ 300
10pts HT/FT Draw/Lorient @ 32

Hands Solo · 10-02-2007, 20:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

Match: Real Sociedad v Real Madrid

50pts Real Sociedad +0.5 @ 2.02
40pts Real Sociedad to win @ 4.6
25pts Real Sociedadto win 2-0 @ 37
25pts Real Sociedad to win 3-0 @ 110
10pts HT/FT Draw/Real Sociedad @ 10.5

ALL LOST

Despite taking an early lead Real Sociedad manage to let one of the most over-rated teams in the world steal a win. Even worse knowing that **** Beckham scored too.

Return of -150pts

staffy · 10-02-2007, 20:51

Not a bad start to the system CP. Hope you keep up the good work.

Hands Solo · 10-02-2007, 20:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

Match: Lyon v Lorient

25pts Lorient +1.5 @ 1.84 WIN
20pts Lorient to win @ 13.5 LOST
12.5pts Lorient to win 2-0 @ 90 LOST
12.5pts Lorient to win 3-0 @ 300 LOST
10pts HT/FT Draw/Lorient @ 32 LOST

Lyon led after 7mins and held on to claim a 1-0 win. All bets are losers except for the Handicap bet, which returned +20.79. Other bets on the game totaled -55pts, so -34.21 from the game.

Hands Solo · 10-02-2007, 20:59

System: UPV1.0.1
Staked: 610pts
Returned: 627.78pts
Profit/Loss: +17.78pts
Yield: +2.9%

NB - Loss of 60pts on UPV1.0.0

Not a great last couple of games with the yield almost turning non existant, but at least it beats a loss. Tomorrow will hopefully be better.

Hands Solo · 10-02-2007, 20:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by staffy

Not a bad start to the system CP. Hope you keep up the good work.

Thanks mate. Tailed off towards the end today but I'm hoping to find that establishing correct score win soon.

04-02-2007, 19:54	#1 (permalink)
Hands Solo 99.9% Intelligence Free Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Australia Age: 22 Posts: 3,049	Underpuppies, Underdogs and The Under-rated This thread is dedicated to betting on certain selections on a team whose match odds are so long that they aren't just underdogs but underpuppies! 4 Selections from each match, always on Match Odds, 2-0 and 3-0 wins and HT/FT bet of draw/underdog. I do have a selection criteria for the matches but don't wish to reveal this for the time being. Match Odds bets are 30pts, 10pts on the rest. Stakes may be raised in future. Done some backtesting and am very confident that this will be a long term winning system. Last edited by Hands Solo; 10-02-2007 at 17:15.

04-02-2007, 19:55	#2 (permalink)
Hands Solo 99.9% Intelligence Free Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Australia Age: 22 Posts: 3,049	Re: Underpuppies First bet is now: Osasuna v Barcelona 30pts Osasuna to win @ 4.8 10pts Draw/Osasuna HT/FT @ 11.5 10pts Osasuna 2-0 @ 40 10pts Osasuna 3-0 @ 146.84 average All bets done with Betfair

04-02-2007, 22:04	#3 (permalink)
Hands Solo 99.9% Intelligence Free Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Australia Age: 22 Posts: 3,049	Re: Underpuppies FT Osasuna 0-0 Barcelona Osasuna had their chances but didn't convert. Disappointing result given the way the game unfolded

07-02-2007, 17:45	#4 (permalink)
Hands Solo 99.9% Intelligence Free Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Australia Age: 22 Posts: 3,049	Re: Underpuppies To try and give the system better longevity an Asian Handicap bet will now be taken. The actual handicap will vary but in general will be the option which is priced nearest to evens. Still quite confident that what I've worked on is going to be profitable, just need to find the right way to pursue it. Next games will be posted on the weekend.

07-02-2007, 17:55	#5 (permalink)
Osesame S Citizen Punter Join Date: 01 Nov 2001 Age: 64 Posts: 11,094 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1	Re: Underpuppies I would guess that the type of matches you are looking at have a high chance of 0-0.

09-02-2007, 19:28	#7 (permalink)
Hands Solo 99.9% Intelligence Free Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Australia Age: 22 Posts: 3,049	Re: Underpuppies First bet for the weekend. A few games planned, some I am hopeful on and others not so. Will probably continue to adjust and change selection and staking strategy. System: UPV1.0.1 Bet #: 1 League: English Premier League Match: Newcastle v Liverpool 50pts Newcastle +0.5 @ 1.94 40pts Newcastle to win @ 4.4 25pts Newcastle to win 2-0 @ 30 25pts Newcastle to win 3-0 @ 100 10pts HT/FT Draw/Newcastle @ 9.6 All bets with Betfair Last edited by Hands Solo; 10-02-2007 at 12:15.

10-02-2007, 12:27	#8 (permalink)
Hands Solo 99.9% Intelligence Free Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Australia Age: 22 Posts: 3,049	Re: Underpuppies System: UPV1.0.1 Bet #: 2 League: English Premier League Match: Chelsea v Middlesbrough 25pts Middlesbrough +1.5 @ 1.95 20pts Middlesbrough to win @ 15.5 12.5pts Middlesbroughto win 2-0 @ 100 12.5pts Middlesbrough to win 3-0 @ 700 10pts HT/FT Draw/Middlesbrough @ 32 All bets with Betfair Last edited by Hands Solo; 10-02-2007 at 12:27.

10-02-2007, 12:44	#9 (permalink)
Hands Solo 99.9% Intelligence Free Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Australia Age: 22 Posts: 3,049	Re: Underpuppies System: UPV1.0.1 Bet #: 3 League: German Bundesliga Match: Stuttgart v Bremen 50pts Stuttgart +0.5 @ 1.55 (Centrebet) 40pts Stuttgart to win @ 3.25 25pts Stuttgart to win 2-0 @ 28 25pts Stuttgart to win 3-0 @ 60 10pts HT/FT Draw/Stuttgart @ 8.4 Other bets with Betfair

10-02-2007, 17:17	#13 (permalink)
Hands Solo 99.9% Intelligence Free Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Australia Age: 22 Posts: 3,049	Re: Underpuppies System: UPV1.0.1 Staked: 380pts Returned: 581.99pts Profit/Loss: +201.99pts Yield: +53% NB - Loss of 60pts on UPV1.0.0

10-02-2007, 18:17	#14 (permalink)
Hands Solo 99.9% Intelligence Free Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Australia Age: 22 Posts: 3,049	Re: Underpuppies System: UPV1.0.1 Bet #: 4 League: Spanish Primera Liga Match: Real Sociedad v Real Madrid 50pts Real Sociedad +0.5 @ 2.02 40pts Real Sociedad to win @ 4.6 25pts Real Sociedadto win 2-0 @ 37 25pts Real Sociedad to win 3-0 @ 110 10pts HT/FT Draw/Real Sociedad @ 10.5 Last edited by Hands Solo; 10-02-2007 at 18:59.

10-02-2007, 18:22	#15 (permalink)
Hands Solo 99.9% Intelligence Free Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Australia Age: 22 Posts: 3,049	Re: Underpuppies System: UPV1.0.1 Bet #: 5 League: French Ligue 1 Match: Lyon v Lorient 25pts Lorient +1.5 @ 1.84 20pts Lorient to win @ 13.5 12.5pts Lorient to win 2-0 @ 90 12.5pts Lorient to win 3-0 @ 300 10pts HT/FT Draw/Lorient @ 32

10-02-2007, 20:51	#17 (permalink)
staffy God Punter Join Date: 08 Aug 2004 Location: Birmingham Age: 31 Posts: 11,508	Re: Underpuppies Not a bad start to the system CP. Hope you keep up the good work. __________________ €12 profit after 100 coolers games.

10-02-2007, 20:59	#19 (permalink)
Hands Solo 99.9% Intelligence Free Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Australia Age: 22 Posts: 3,049	Re: Underpuppies System: UPV1.0.1 Staked: 610pts Returned: 627.78pts Profit/Loss: +17.78pts Yield: +2.9% NB - Loss of 60pts on UPV1.0.0 Not a great last couple of games with the yield almost turning non existant, but at least it beats a loss. Tomorrow will hopefully be better.

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