Under/Over 4.5 Strategy - The Punters Lounge

MHW · 30-01-2008, 12:27

I have been trying this strategy for in play matches on Betfair and would welcome any comments or ideas for improvements.

Lay under 4.5 at 1.10. This price is usually available just before kick off or,if not, within the first 15 minutes if no goals are scored. ( A lay of £25 producing a liabvility of £2.50).

Then review again at half time with action depending on number of goals scored in first half.

If no goals, swirch all bet to unders to recover a small amount of the stake reducing losses.

If 1 goal, again bet on unders to cut losses.

If 2 goals it is possible to bet some on unders and guarantee a small profit whatever happens in second half.

If 3 or 4 goals, allow the bet to run on unchanged to full time.

At these odds this should give a decent profit overall if at least one match in ten goes over.

By reviewimg at half time I hope to cut losses and improve the overall return.

Has anyone tried this before? Any comments gratefully received.

Many thanks.

staffy · 30-01-2008, 12:29

Good luck but not sure it will be profitable.

tommy_de1st · 05-02-2008, 22:29

What do you mean by saying "bet on unders" ?

MHW · 06-02-2008, 08:55

Tommy

Before kickoff lay 'under 4.5 goals'

At half time, if necessary, bet on 'under 4.5 goals ' to claw back some of the potential loss.

tommy_de1st · 06-02-2008, 19:06

OK thanx
so to play that system you have to choose high scoring leagues such as dutch, brazilian etc
when you lay unda 4.5 at 1.1 and if it`s 0:0 at HT odds drop to 1.03-1.05 and then it`s noe profitable to back that
What`d you think?

MHW · 06-02-2008, 20:37

Yes, the higher scoring leagues are best.

If its 0-0 at h/t and the price to bet on 'under 4.5' is only 1.02 then very little of the stake can be recovered at that stage. May be better to wait and see if there is a goal early in the second and the price would then go up a bit.

own3dripy · 15-02-2008, 13:08

This is a very good strategy especially in Turkish leagues

josha007 · 15-02-2008, 13:26

Good to see your trying a few things MHW.Yeah Tommy is right, the Dutch league is usually very good for high scoring games, although if Ajax or PSV are playing poor teams you wont get 1.10 to lay under 4.5 goals.Also will Betfair markets go as far as over/under 4.5 goals on those kinda games?

P.S:Hope you were on Benfica last night.Only just won, but was enough.

josha007 · 15-02-2008, 13:31

Just checked the market on Betfair for Ajax v Sparta and i stand corrected, they do over/under 4.5 goals.But to lay it, its only 1.46.Kinda what i thought when Ajax play at home versus someone average.

30-01-2008, 12:27	#1 (permalink)
MHW Bristol Manc Join Date: 23 Feb 2006 Location: Bristol Age: 57 Posts: 31	Under/Over 4.5 Strategy I have been trying this strategy for in play matches on Betfair and would welcome any comments or ideas for improvements. Lay under 4.5 at 1.10. This price is usually available just before kick off or,if not, within the first 15 minutes if no goals are scored. ( A lay of £25 producing a liabvility of £2.50). Then review again at half time with action depending on number of goals scored in first half. If no goals, swirch all bet to unders to recover a small amount of the stake reducing losses. If 1 goal, again bet on unders to cut losses. If 2 goals it is possible to bet some on unders and guarantee a small profit whatever happens in second half. If 3 or 4 goals, allow the bet to run on unchanged to full time. At these odds this should give a decent profit overall if at least one match in ten goes over. By reviewimg at half time I hope to cut losses and improve the overall return. Has anyone tried this before? Any comments gratefully received. Many thanks.

30-01-2008, 12:29	#2 (permalink)
staffy God Punter Join Date: 08 Aug 2004 Location: Birmingham Age: 31 Posts: 11,843	Re: Under/Over 4.5 Strategy Good luck but not sure it will be profitable. __________________ Total poker profit 2009 = $120

05-02-2008, 22:29	#3 (permalink)
tommy_de1st Junior Punter Join Date: 17 Dec 2007 Location: London, UK Posts: 59	Re: Under/Over 4.5 Strategy What do you mean by saying "bet on unders" ?

06-02-2008, 08:55	#4 (permalink)
MHW Bristol Manc Join Date: 23 Feb 2006 Location: Bristol Age: 57 Posts: 31	Re: Under/Over 4.5 Strategy Tommy Before kickoff lay 'under 4.5 goals' At half time, if necessary, bet on 'under 4.5 goals ' to claw back some of the potential loss.

06-02-2008, 19:06	#5 (permalink)
tommy_de1st Junior Punter Join Date: 17 Dec 2007 Location: London, UK Posts: 59	Re: Under/Over 4.5 Strategy OK thanx so to play that system you have to choose high scoring leagues such as dutch, brazilian etc when you lay unda 4.5 at 1.1 and if it`s 0:0 at HT odds drop to 1.03-1.05 and then it`s noe profitable to back that What`d you think?

06-02-2008, 20:37	#6 (permalink)
MHW Bristol Manc Join Date: 23 Feb 2006 Location: Bristol Age: 57 Posts: 31	Re: Under/Over 4.5 Strategy Yes, the higher scoring leagues are best. If its 0-0 at h/t and the price to bet on 'under 4.5' is only 1.02 then very little of the stake can be recovered at that stage. May be better to wait and see if there is a goal early in the second and the price would then go up a bit.

15-02-2008, 13:08	#7 (permalink)
own3dripy Newbie Punter Join Date: 26 Feb 2007 Posts: 5	Re: Under/Over 4.5 Strategy This is a very good strategy especially in Turkish leagues

15-02-2008, 13:26	#8 (permalink)
josha007 Newbie Punter Join Date: 03 Jul 2006 Posts: 32	Re: Under/Over 4.5 Strategy Good to see your trying a few things MHW.Yeah Tommy is right, the Dutch league is usually very good for high scoring games, although if Ajax or PSV are playing poor teams you wont get 1.10 to lay under 4.5 goals.Also will Betfair markets go as far as over/under 4.5 goals on those kinda games? P.S:Hope you were on Benfica last night.Only just won, but was enough. Last edited by josha007; 15-02-2008 at 13:26.

15-02-2008, 13:31	#9 (permalink)
josha007 Newbie Punter Join Date: 03 Jul 2006 Posts: 32	Re: Under/Over 4.5 Strategy Just checked the market on Betfair for Ajax v Sparta and i stand corrected, they do over/under 4.5 goals.But to lay it, its only 1.46.Kinda what i thought when Ajax play at home versus someone average.

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