UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results

[rich46]

Playing with the enemies money now,so no real damage

[Subzero]

Originally Posted by jtw1

Apologies for the late update but i've been lying in a darkened room for 24 hrs after yesterdays result

5-1 , yes 5 feckin 1

What made it that harder to bear was the other results of the games i had flagged up.
JABLONEC 2-0
ZIZKOV 2-0
IRAKLIS 1-1

With good old hindsight maybe the IRAKLIS game was the better choice as they had 9/12 UNDERS in league games [ same as LARISA ] but they had played 3 previous fixtures.

1st Time i've felt the need to apologise , hope minimum damage was done if you followed

That's ok mate, you made a decision based on your research, and its always hard to find out that your other selections would have been winners. Happens all the time, remember the Monaco-Bordeaux match?
0-0 at halftime not a single scoring chance for both teams but in finished 0-6...... but i'm sure you pick some winners next couple of weeks.

Now personally i didn't follow this bet because it involved OFI Crete, 1 of the few teams in Greece which is not a team to bet in my opinion, because they seem to have more surprising results than any other team. But on the other hand you have picked so many winners which i followed in recent months that you really don't have to apologize for picking 1 loser.

Keep up the good work

[jtw1]

Cheers guys support appreciated .

No chance of selecting the wrong 'un tomorrow as only one game stands out

TOULOUSE v LE MANS has ended UNDER in 4 out of the last 4 fixtures.

TOULOUSE have had 5/6 homes end UNDER [ 12/14 at home this season]
LE MANS have had 3/6 aways end UNDER.

STAKE 20PTS @ 1.57

[jtw1]

1-1 Returns = 31.40pts



Sunday
--------
PLZEN v TEPLICE has ended UNDER in the last 3 out of 4 fixtures

PLZEN have had 5/6 homes end UNDER
TEPICE have had 5/6 aways end UNDER

STAKE 31.40PTS @ 1.5

[barrhead73]

0-2

[jtw1]

Cheers mate

0-2 f-r RETURNS = 47.10PTS

[ozangumus]

Hi again Jtw,

Your system goes well for long time, congratulations.

I want to ask a new question both to you and subzero and all of your readers who are interested about over/under.

I see you only care about last 6 home matches of home team and last 6 away matches of away team. Your system is successfull so being blind about away matches of home team and home matches of away team did not effected your system negatively till now.

What happens if we add also last 6 away matches of home team and last 6 home matches of away team to our formula with a smaller multiplier constant.

Lets assume
our constant be 0.5, so last 6 away matches of home team will added like they are 3 matches to total sum.

Lets examine Kalamaria

5 of 6 matches ended under at home
2 of 6 matches ended under at away

this will mean 5 + 2 * 0.5 / 6 + 6 * 0.5 = 6 / 9 under for Kalamaria

What do you think will happen if you modify your system like this. Because I do not think effect of away matches of home team should be 0 or effect of home matches of away team are 0.

So what should constant be if we modify the formula? What are your opinions about this?

Is 0.5 good or should it be about 0.7? Or lower than 0.5?

Thanks all.

[gonxalo2000]

sorry to ask, but there's a couple of things i don't understand...
How do you pic the games? I ask, cause of the last post..."Isee you only care about last 6 home matches of home team and last 6 away matches of away team. Your system is successfull so being blind about away matches of home team and home matches of away team did not effected your system negatively till now." do you???
I also don't understand how do you choose stakes....

can you tell?

tks.

sorry by my english

[Dices]

Originally Posted by jtw1

1st CRITERIA - The league in which the game is being played MUST have 60% or more of all games played so far finish UNDER 2.5.


2nd CRITERIA - H2H meetings .Ideally there should be a current history between teams of at least 3 matches.
Less than 3 can be looked at if the % is very high.
Ideally 5 or 6 previous fixtures is what we're looking for ,and there should be only 1 or 2 previous meetings that have ended OVER


3rd CRITERIA - previous league results.
Here we're looking for the home and away sides to have an above average ratio of UNDERS when looking at their current form.
Ideally only 1 or 2 OVERS at the most , again depending on how many games played and as the season goes on.

I always put more emphasis on the home teams form as a matter of course.

At least i TRY [lol] to stick to these rules !!

Also

Odds are in the region of 1.5 to 1.7 and progressive staking is used until 100 pts has been reached.

Insurance SHOULD be taken on the 2-1 home win

Staking Plan

BET 1- 20PT WIN

If that comes in then ALL RETURNS on BET 2 .

If that is sucessful then a small portion of the returns [ usually around 2 - 2.5 pts] is placed on a home score of 2-1 with the rest going onto BET 3 .

If the main bet comes in then we BANK the winnings and return to 20pt win
If 'insurance' bet of 2-1 comes in then we're back to placing returns from that on BET 1 .

If both fail then we've lost 20pts from starting bank and start at BET 1 [20PTS] again.

[gonxalo2000]

tks a lot !!!

one other thing.... wich site do you prefer for statistics?

tks again!

[jtw1]

Cheers dices

www.h2hstats.com thats where most of my info comes from , gonxalo

ozangumus , appreciate your interest mate but to be honest i'm quite happy with the way the system runs .
2 previous season's in profit and barring a disaster i'ts looking like a profitable one this season too .
If it ain't broke don't fix it !!

[ozangumus]

I know that small changes can effect your ROI negatively and I am not offering fixing of course. It works well so do not touch it. I am only asking what do you think about effect of away matches of home team and home matches of away team. I am working on a computer program for long time and trying to calculate OU probs of all matches so I am asking only opinions about that question to everyone who are interested in Over/Under betting.

Thanks for answer.

[Dices]

Originally Posted by ozangumus

I know that small changes can effect your ROI negatively and I am not offering fixing of course. It works well so do not touch it. I am only asking what do you think about effect of away matches of home team and home matches of away team. I am working on a computer program for long time and trying to calculate OU probs of all matches so I am asking only opinions about that question to everyone who are interested in Over/Under betting.

Thanks for answer.

I dont have stats to support this but i think it will affect it negativly.
Basically i believe it wil decrease ROI but it will increace No of bets, so why dont you back test it creating something in excel?
Tell us your findings

[ozangumus]

I have already backtested it in more than 200.000 matches and I saw that they(away matches of home team and home matches of away team) have a very heavy effect on probs too like (45%, nearly same with home-home, away-away)

But this does not mean adding other matches will make this system better. Jtw found something special, we can say away matches of home team effects OU probs positively/linear but this does not mean ''if we add away matches of home team to this system, success of this system will be better.'' We can easily get out of special situation by modifying used formula.

Anyway if there is different ideas about this topic I will be very glad of hearing them. Maybe it can help developing my program or used systems for OU betting.

[gonxalo2000]

Originally Posted by ozangumus

I have already backtested it in more than 200.000 matches and I saw that they(away matches of home team and home matches of away team) have a very heavy effect on probs too like (45%, nearly same with home-home, away-away)

But this does not mean adding other matches will make this system better. Jtw found something special, we can say away matches of home team effects OU probs positively/linear but this does not mean ''if we add away matches of home team to this system, success of this system will be better.'' We can easily get out of special situation by modifying used formula.

Anyway if there is different ideas about this topic I will be very glad of hearing them. Maybe it can help developing my program or used systems for OU betting.

don't you have a thread like this one!? that was close because you make it paid!? why bother if you have a profitable method!?

[ozangumus]

You can only develop yourself/system anything by talking and discussing with other people and examining their ideas. Bookies are developing themselves everyday. Dont you think they do not see this topic. They will take prevention to this special situation. You see odds of bets accepted by this system decreases day by day. This shows bookies are developing themselves. If you stop and do not develop yourself and your system your ROI decreases below 100 one day.

I am only trying to make a discussion. I made using my system paid because you cannot imagine how much I worked on that. And after two years posting in forums I made it paid. That is not something unfair I think. If you want to beat bookies this will not be easy, both for users like you and system owners like us.

Anyway I think jtw is doing good work and found something valueable I hope bookies will not prevent themselves from this situation.

[Raulaco]

Hello. I'm new to the forums but i've been followin this system for a few months right now with success so i wanted to thank jtw1 for his pics and say hi to rest of the members who read this

[jtw1]

Raulaco , hope we have a good weekend



Now i don't know whats happened but the bookies seem to have shortened the odds for UNDERS in most of the leagues we look at.
For example : S.OLOMOUC v ZLIN 4/5 previous fixtures have ended UNDER .
OLOMOUC have had 6/6 homes end UNDER
ZLIN have had 3/6 aways end UNDER.

This would have been the selection and usually we would be looking for 1.5 at least , however even STAN JAMES , who have been pretty good so far , are only offering 1.44 !!!!
In fact not one of the few other 'big' bookies are over 1.5 .
If ZLIN had been on 5/6 or 6/6 aways UNDER i might have considered it but not with those stats.
Unfortunately theres no other game near the criteria on Saturday.

EXCEPT if your willing to take a chance and consider a league which is only on 55% UNDERS [ not too bad !! ]
Theres a game which has ended UNDER 7 times from the last 7 .
The home side have had 5/6 homes end UNDER.
The away team have had 4/6 aways end UNDER.

The league is the ENGLISH PREMIER and the game is SUNDERLAND v WEST HAM

SUNDERLAND have a goal record at home of 17-15 in 15 homes
WEST HAM are 16-19 for/against after 16 aways

STAKE 45 pts @ 1.62 [stan james]
STAKE 2.10 PTS @ 9.0

[gonxalo2000]

Sochaux - Nice? 6/6 5/6

[jtw1]

SUNDERLAND 2-1 They got the 3rd goal 6 minutes
into injury time

Got the insurance bet back so stake 18.90pts SOCHAUX v NICE ending UNDER as it has in 5/5 previous fixtures.

SOCHAUX have had 6/6 homes end UNDER
NICE have had 5/6 aways end UNDER.

1.5 - BLUE SQUARE