UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results

[Yomica]

I played last couple years almost only under/over but without your discipline and I like your way and your selection. Excellent work!

[jtw1]

CHEERS yomica



MONDAY
------

Our good friends in SERIE B have provided us with the next selection.
BARI v NAPOLI
Previous meetings - 1-1,2-0,0-1,0-1,0-1,0-0 since 1995.

BARI have had 5 out of 5 homes end UNDER [8 /10 h/a].

NAPOLI have had 4 out of 5 aways end UNDER [8/10 HA/]

STAKE 46.16PTS @ 1.53

[squelch]

Agree with this one. Hopefully wont put the kiss of death on it!

[jtw1]

BARI 0-1

STARTING BANK = 100 pts
CURRENT BANK = 321.18 pts

BANK TREBLED

[Richard the Courier]

Well Done JTW. Great work. I like your discipline,its so easy to get carried away and greedy as i know to my cost. Will follow with interest. All the best.
Good luck

[Kanga]

Excellent

Just a quick question have you ever calculated the results using different staking plans ?

[jtw1]

No ,to be honest mate.
With the odds being so short and trying to get a decent return i just stuck with the progressive staking method.
If you can see a way to improve the returns please feel free to post

[Kanga]

Thanks - Something interesting I've noticed :-

(>1.50) 40 selections = 25 winners & 15 losers 62.5%
(1.50) 16 selections = 11 winners & 5 losers 68.75%
(<1.50) 26 selections = 21 winners & 5 losers 80.77%

Total 82 selections = 57 winners & 25 losers 69.51%

[Kanga]

I've run 3 staking methods over all the 82 posted selections.

1) Flat £20 stake = profit of £ 92.20
2) Comparible Fixed return = £ 107.70
3) Rolling 5% percentile of 1000 point bank = £ 87.64

Whereas your rolling treble/quad has doubled even these returns

I'm just trying to get my head around an equation to run similar through excel.

[Kanga]

Following on with this rolling stake

Doubles = £ 80.73
Trebles = £ 122.45
Quads = £ 38.17

I was stumped by the difference in banks but a superb 2-1 cover allowed for a nice banking that isn't included in these.

8 of the 25 losers were 2-1 home victories.
4 of the 25 were 2-2 draws
3 were 1-2 away wins.

[jtw1]

Nice work KANGA

[jtw1]

Had two games in SERIE B to choose from and have eventually decided to go for RIMINI v VERONA.

They have faced each other only once in the past and that was a 0-0 draw.

RIMINI have had 4 out of 5 homes end UNDER [7/11 H/A]
VERONA have had 5 out of 5 aways end UNDER [11/11 H/A]

Stake 20pts @ 1.55


The other game i considered was AREZZO v BRESCIA , there has been no previous recent meetings but AREZZO have had 6/ UNDERS at home and 10/11 h/a.
While BRESCIA have had 5 /5 aways and 11/11 h/a end UNDER.

However the deciding factor was the odds of only 1.44 for this game.
SERIE B league games are sitting at 70% UNDER 2.5 goals.

[jtw1]

3 goals in 5 mins

3-0 it finished . [arezzo finished 0-2 ]

SUNDAY
------

PANIONIOS v XANTHI to get us back in winning groove
0-0,2-0,0-3,1-0,0-0,0-2 in previous seasons.

PANIONIOS have had 2/4 homes end UNDER [6/10 h/a]
XANTHI have had 4/5 aways end UNDER [9/10 h/a]

STAKE 20PTS @ 1.53

[merlin]

.... was here a while back JTW liked what I saw then, forgot all about

it, and after remembering your page, I like what I see again.Started to

follow your selections Saturday (lost) but was on again today to

recover my lost cash of yesterday.Been looking through sites, where do

you look at your stats, is there a special site? Will be continuing to look

in and your site is firmly placed in my memory banks.Keep up the good

work.

[jtw1]

The main site i use for previous results is www.h2hstats.com , very useful simply log in click on previous results and there they are from approx 10 years ago until now.
I also use www.betexplorer.co to find out which leagues are favorable for UNDERS betting.
Before this weekend the best were -

SERIE B 70%
GREEK 1ST 64%
ENG PREM 62%
FRENCH 2 61%
CZECH GAMB 60%
BUNDESLIGA 2 60%


Todays bet came in 0-2 the final score.

RETURN = 30.60PTS

[merlin]

.... yeah, another fine win for the pot JWT and I was on with you.

I intend to continue in this vein due to the potential in this system.

I was already registered with the first site you mentioned, but slipped my

memory banks,always good to know a little bit behind the stats.Onwards

and upwards!

[merlin]

.... so where are we now then JWT ? When is the next bet due for the

system, is it Friday?

[jtw1]

Hopefully mate , will post on Thursday .
If you want to check out youself heres the criteria i use , all info is on h2hstats site.

1st CRITERIA - The league in which the game is being played MUST have 60% or more of all games played so far finish UNDER 2.5.


2nd CRITERIA - H2H meetings .Ideally there should be a current history between teams of at least 3 matches.
Less than 3 can be looked at if , as in the case of SERIE B the % of UNDER'S is very high ; 70% going into Saturdays games.
Again there should be only 1 or 2 previous meetings that have ended OVER , depending on how many have been played.


3rd CRITERIA - previous league results.
Here we're looking for the home and away sides to have an above average ratio of UNDERS when looking at their current form.
Ideally only 1 or 2 OVERS at the most , again depending on how many games played and as the season goes on.

I always put more emphasis on the home teams form as a matter of course.

At least i TRY [lol] to stick to these rules !!

[Yomica]

Excellent work. I use your 3rd criteria and maybe 1st, and this is better, in-depth. I like to play under in leagues with more overs (Swiss, Holland) and opposite, over in Franch 2, Portugal... Odds are higher, much more, but disappoitments are often.

[jtw1]

Good luck YOMICA

Nothing doing for us on Friday.