UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results

[jtw1]

SOCHAUX 1-0


RETURNS = 28.35PTS

[jtw1]

2 for MONDAY

The PRAGUE derby , SLAVIA v SPARTA , had ended UNDER 6 times from the previous 7.
This is also a top of the table clash so hopefully both defences will be as mean as possible

SLAVIA have had 5/6 homes end UNDER
SPARTA have had 3/6 aways end UNDER.

STAKE 28.35PTS @ 1.61

If that one comes in then STAKE 43pts @ 1.65 on SETUBAL v BOAVISTA finishing UNDER 2.5 goals .
This has done exactly that in 5 of the last 6 meetings
Also have 2.35pts on 2-1 home win.

SETUBAL have had 5/6 homes end UNDER
BOAVISTA have had 5/6 aways end UNDER


If the CZECH game has finished OVER then the stake will be the starting bet of 20pts

[mpendle]

FYI; Partybets have the Czech game unders at 1.7.

[jtw1]

SLAVIA 1-1

RETURNS = 45.64PTS

So thats 43pts @ 1.65 on UNDER 2.5 in the SETUBAL V BOAVISTA game

2.64pts on 2-1 home win

[arvanitis]

Good choice for Prague! Setubal 2-1 in first half already though!!!

[jtw1]

3-1 so far Trouble getting that 3rd winner !!

[Subzero]

Originally Posted by jtw1

Now i don't know whats happened but the bookies seem to have shortened the odds for UNDERS in most of the leagues we look at.
For example : S.OLOMOUC v ZLIN 4/5 previous fixtures have ended UNDER .
OLOMOUC have had 6/6 homes end UNDER
ZLIN have had 3/6 aways end UNDER.

This would have been the selection and usually we would be looking for 1.5 at least , however even STAN JAMES , who have been pretty good so far , are only offering 1.44 !!!!
In fact not one of the few other 'big' bookies are over 1.5 .
If ZLIN had been on 5/6 or 6/6 aways UNDER i might have considered it but not with those stats.
Unfortunately theres no other game near the criteria on Saturday.

You're right jtw, the czech league has 64% unders, so 2 out of 3 matches have finished under. In fact if you had bet all the games at odds of 1.55 or higher you should have a profit this season. And until now, these odds were available.

But the bookies don't want you to win so they offer 1.40 or 1.45 now

And this is not only in the Czech league, also in Greece and some other "under" leagues the odds are shortened.

But on the other hand, the under % in Portugal and France had dropped under 60% so i think you find some matches with good stats for your system

[jtw1]

Hello all

To the regular followers of the thread you'll be aware that we are approaching the start of the league run-ins and at this point , as has been proved in the past 2 seasons , the games start to go against us [ think they may have started earlie than usual ]

Heres my post regarding this from 21 April last year -

I now beleive that with only a handful of games left in all the leagues that we follow , we have reached the same point that caused us problems at the START of the season .
I know from past experience that this is not a good time to keep trying to get results and have decided to end this season on a high.

Last season [2006] i quit the thread on the 7th May when the BANK stood at 205.96pts [see page 8] , this represented a drop from 285.96 only 4 weeks previously [9th April , see page 7]
This season we've dropped from 555.18pts [31st March , page 25 ] to a final 475.18pts [today]
To me ,and others, this change in results pattern at the season's end is a regular occurence and affects PROFIT.
The trick i've not found yet is the correct time to STOP !!

STARTING BANK = 100PTS
CURRENT + FINAL BANK [2007] = 475.18PTS
PROFIT 2007 = 375.18PTS
PROFIT 2006 = 205.96PTS.

Profit for 2007/8 stands at 204.41pts after a starting bank of 100pts.
This has dropped from 264.41 in the past few weeks .

Now don't panic yet i think we have one more weekend in us but after that i'm thinking about calling a halt to procedings.
Usually i stop until around SEP but this year i'm giving consideration to trying out the 'summer leagues ' but that will not happen until those leagues have played around 8 games.

In the meantime i want to thank all of who read and contribute to the thread , newbies and oldies , who have made this quite a successful and profitable system for the PL.

[Grex]

Originally Posted by jtw1

In the meantime i want to thank all of who read and contribute to the thread , newbies and oldies , who have made this quite a successful and profitable system for the PL.

I have never actually contributed to your thread, jtw1, but I have followed it with interest.... unfortunately (for me), I have never put hard cash on your selections

Your system has demonstrated consistent success over at last 3(?) seasons..... and there´s not many authors can claim that level of success

I think you are correct to draw a line under it at this unpredictable stage of the season...... I look forward to your selections on the summer leagues and, of course, the 2008/09 season for the "elite" leagues..... I might even have the balls to put some REAL money on it this time

[rich46]

Thanks for all your tips jtw1, really good thread and money in the bank!!

[barrhead73]

Another good season JTW, lets hope theres one more good weekend left.

Looking forward to the summer leagues already. It might save me wasting my money on Euro 2008.

[jtw1]

Here goes

SP GIJON v GIMNASTICA has ended UNDER in 2/3 previous fixtures.
Spains 2nd Div have had 62.2% of games end UNDER

GIJON have had 6/6 homes finish UNDER
GIMNASTICA have had 5/6 aways end UNDER

STAKE 20PTS @ 1.57

[wrightyoh]

Hi Punting God

odds 1.62 on betfair

Good luck, Andrew

[jtw1]

3-3 f-t

Disappointing finish to the season , especially with only 1 of last nights French Div 1 games finishing UNDER !!

However 184.41pts profit in a season is pretty good going .

Definately going to give the summer leagues a try once they've bedded in and if anyone's looking for a bet today then you could do no worse than take APPOLON K v XANTHI , 2/3 between the 2 in previous fixtures and current home / away unders stats of 6/6 + 4/6


1.57 available

Please feel free to keep posting any UNDERS selections you consider worth posting in this thread

[jtw1]

An interesting game in the FRENCH 1ST DIV ,which is still on 60% UNDERS , on Saturday and thats the match between SOCHAUX v LORIENT which has finished UNDER in 6/7 fixtures.
SOCHAUX have had 6/6 UNDERS in their last 6 homes
LORIENT have had 4/6 aways end UNDER.

What appeals is the 1.6 on offer with BET365 .

* This is not a restart of the system , just pointing out a game that seems to be on offer at reasonable odds .

[jtw1]

1-1 Only 3 UNDERS in the top French league .

[jtw1]

Here's something to keep us going for the rest of the summer leagues
There won't be a lot of selections but if we can double the bank i'll be a happy chappy.

Starting Bank = 100pts

WEDS - RUBIN v SATURN [Russian Premier ] 0-1, 0-0, 0-3 ,0-1.

RUBIN have had 3/5 homes end UNDER with 5[goals] for and 5 against.
SATURN have had 5/5 aways end UNDER with 2 for and 5 against .

Stake any returns from game below @ 1.61 - Stan James

Russian premier have had 57.1% of games end UNDER.

[jtw1]

STOP PRESS !!!!!

Here's one for tomorrow [Tuesday ] in the FINNISH YKKONEN [2nd Div]

PK-35 v HAMEENLINNA 1-0 , 0-0 , 0-0 . [6/6 h/a ]

PK-35 have had 5/5 homes end UNDER , 6 [goals] for 0 against at home
HAMEENLINNA have had 3/4 aways end UNDER , 2 for 5 against away.

STAKE 20pts @ 1.72 with Stan James.

FINNISH YKKONEN have had 58% of games end UNDER this season.

Any returns from this should be put on the RUBIN v SATURN game -Weds.

[davidc]

Hi JTW1 - good to see this thread back again and good luck for the coming season.

For those with accounts you can get:

RUBIN v SATURN @ 1.73 with Sportingbet

PK-35 v HAMEENLINNA @ 1.84 with Pinnacle

Good luck!!

[jtw1]

Cheers davidc and we are back with a winner


PK-45 0-0

So now it's 34.40pts on tomorrows RUBIN v SATURN game @ 1.61