Top Flight Trouble "Big Mak" Style

[Punto Banco]

This will be the thread which I will co-ordinate my rejuvenated effort to contribute to this wonderful community that has given so much to us all. I feel I have disrespected it of late as my knowledge has grown and my results improved (I would say as a direct result of this forums existence) yet I have failed to give back in the way that most do.

I have found it difficult in the past to find the time to write up and organise my selections for public consumption (Although there are those here who seem to make the time and I applaud your efforts). As well as time I have never felt as confident as now in letting people know my opinion from a betting perspective as even though people are responsible for their own actions, if a selection of mine loses and it is a public selection someone could be affected (Up until about 6-12 months ago I was terribly uncomfortable giving my friends any tips/opinions for similar reasons).

So now with my confidence growing and my results really backing me up I feel it is time to set the wheels in motion. I intend to produce a SINGLE "best" selection for each round of the most popular top flight leagues ONLY. Presumably this would be my highest staked bet however occasionally that may not be the case due to odds, the most common form of this would be "anytime goalscorer" bets which I have enjoyed some success in. All bets in this thread will contain explanation for the wager and the thread will contain many statistics that will enable all to gauge how I rate the strength of a proposed bet as well as results for previous ones.

While wagers will be compiled here they will also be posted in the relevant thread so please direct comments on them there. If I feel as time goes by that I have the ability to contribute a greater volume of selections I am all but happy to do so. By all means follow along see how my good/bad my results are and make your own judgment on whether to wager your hard earned. One final thing i always encourage people to bet within themselves my bets will NEVER exceed 2% of my total betting bank and my average bets are somewhere between 1-1.5% at no point do I encourage all in bets even with my absolute strongest selections.

Wow that was longer than I expected. Enjoy the read and also thank you to those here at PL that put in so much effort in the spirit of good will so that we can all beat the bookies. May we all succeed so that there is plenty of funds to be social on the weekends (or any day really. Carl ).

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[Punto Banco]

France Ligue 1 - (18/10/08)

Caen v Grenoble


These two teams have had great starts to the season with everyone giving massive wraps to Caen for their go forward attitude and so far they have been justly rewarded for their positive attacking play. However recently Grenoble has gone the other way a little particularly noted the match against Nantes (Some of us still don't know what happened) where they were all over the match with multiple genuine chances on goal however managed to concede to what was a rare chance on goal for Nantes. However with a goal disallowed (offside) and the Nantes stopper in top touch some count them unlucky.

I am sure that everyone feels this will be an open game with Caen very confident pushing forward (Perhaps vulnerable on the counter particularly with the return of starting striker Moriera: G:2, A:1). I feel like on their day Grenoble here could make Caen pay on the counter, however with a touch of inconsistency creeping in and a poor result against Nantes despite their domination I feel like they will need a lot to get a result here (2 goals may be necessary to get any result).

Caen

In 4 home games this season Caen hold a 3-0-1 record scoring 2 or more in 3/4 (Including a very impressive 2-0 win over St Etienne). I feel like the 0-1 loss to PSG can be written off as a once off and in mid table position every home game is important to win to keep in a comfortable league position and crucial in maintaining pressure on those above (including Grenoble).

Grenoble

As I said earlier if not for the Nantes game I may be backing Grenoble here however with home form dropping it is hard to see them maintain a high enough level motivation to take something from this match. With only 1 win in last 4 matches overall (That win coming away to PSG I tend to ignore results teams have against PSG, one of the more inconsistent teams I have seen) you just get the feeling they wont have enough.

Betting

The predicted open nature of the match tempted me into a "Both teams to score" bet however Caen have recoded some quality clean sheets I simply cannot ignore. Caen win.

7 units Caen (-0.5) @ 1.91 (Bet365)

Top Price: 1.97 (Exchanges)

[Punto Banco]

England Premier league - (18/10/08)


Aston Villa v Portsmouth


I had planned on putting up a bet on Blackburn (+0) which I took earlier on in the week at a tasty 2.34, It is now much shorter however I certainly wouldn't disagree if someone placed a bet on at the 2.13 that is available. There is obviously going to be a lot less value though which those who are confident about the bet itself as I am should be careful not to get too excited as those odds offer perhaps a little value at best.

Anyway on to the above match Aston Villa v Portsmouth, this match as expected has been pegged for goals and no body is surprised. I will certainly admit that I have had an amount on the over including I high total at good odds. There is still a little 1.9 about the over 2.5 and that is fine however personally I wouldn't touch too much under that price (perhaps a smaller stake on a higher total is the way to go if you can't get a good price on this line).

I would just like to bring attention briefly to the Anytime goalscorer market as there are some nice prices out there on some proven strikers that certainly may prosper here if this is to be as open a game as most believe it will. After sustaining minor injury during midweek internationals G. Agbonlahor (2.75 Will Hill, 2.8 Centrebet) is a somewhat risky bet here but is always a threat. J. Carew (2.75 Will Hill, Centrebet) has scored 4 goals in 7 games so far this season (Keeping in mind that two matches in which he did not score were vs Liverpool and Chelsea). Last but not least J. Defoe (3.25) offers arguably the best value here after scoring 5 times in 7 appearances only not getting on the score sheet against top end teams (While Aston Villa are certainly a good team and could be considered top end their defence has proven again and again not to be of the same standard)

I couldn't have a bet here as I have the totals already covered and i am not confident enough in this result to put all of my eggs in one basket but if you have not yet placed a bet and have similar thoughts about the game then I feel considering these options may be a bit safer if the game does not turn into a goal frenzy as many believe. The main argument against the overs is all of the changes to teams and generally just the interruption caused by internationals. Hopefully we see an entertaining match here (with plenty of goals ).