Tennis WTA Bias - The Punters Lounge

seepps · 10-08-2008, 11:55

Hello everybody,
After spending several months of reading threads, here's my first strategy!!!
I would first like to thanks all the contributors for their posts. It helped me trying to create winning systems.
So now, let's go direct to the point with the presentation of my first system.
I collect data from different bookmakers and when I find a bias, I simply bet (odds <= 1,4). I don't pretend to be very creative, I know there are other strategies like this but let's see.
This system is a real life (money) system. It might be crazy but the backtesting is really interesting (Yield 11,88% *** Strike Rate 86,25%) so no hesitation and I'll see. If someone is interested, I will post the backtest performed using tennis-data web site statistics.
The staking strategy is basic. 30 units per bet. I've tried several staking strategies, but nothing more performing than this one ??? Suggestions are welcome.
Starting bank 100 units.
OK, I hope I don't forget anything, so let's go for the first bet !!!

Mr Intensity · 10-08-2008, 12:02

Good luck mate

30 units seems a bit high starting with 100 units, even if you are betting heavy favs. What if say at a big tournament you want to have a few bets at the same time?

I think 20 units or even less would be a better way to go.

seepps · 10-08-2008, 12:17

Thank you for your advice Mr Intensity but unfortunately, the first bet has already been posted. And furthermore, regarding my backtesting, I never go under 0. Hope it will be the same ;-)
Concerning the big tournaments, it's right that it may be difficult but the system provides only 50 bet per year so ...

First bet :
Stake 30pts tomorrow on P. Schnyder vs J. Craybas at 1,269

Ok now wait and see ...

Datapunter · 10-08-2008, 12:23

and good luck,

Quote:

when I find a bias, I simply bet (odds <= 1,4)

So in other words, if the price you can get is well above the average of bookies it's a bet ?
Where do you draw the line, howmuch better above average before it's a bet ?

seepps · 10-08-2008, 12:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Datapunter

So in other words, if the price you can get is well above the average of bookies it's a bet ?

Exactly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Datapunter

Where do you draw the line, howmuch better above average before it's a bet ?

5%

Ok, now you know everything, no more secrets !!!
Just guess it will be a good start !!!

seepps · 11-08-2008, 17:58

P. Schnyder vs J. Craybas 6-3 6-2

Even if everybody knows that no conclusion can be made after one bet, it's better to start with a win than with a loss.

Starting bank 100
Current bank 108,06
Total staked 30
Number of bets 1
Winning bets 1
Losing bets 0
Strike rate 100%
Yield 26,9%
Profit (or Loss) 8,06

Doesn't seem to be any selection for Cincinnati, wait and see ...

seepps · 11-08-2008, 23:43

Here's one
2nd bet : Cincinnati */*/* S-W. Hsieh vs M. Kirilenko
30 units on M. Kirilenko at 1,274
Just just 5% more than the average of the other bookies. Hope I will not regret ...

seepps · 12-08-2008, 06:08

M Kirilenko (RUS) d [Q] S Hsieh (TPE) 62 75

Hope it will go on this way with the chance of the beginner

...

Starting bank 100
Current bank 116,29
Winning bets 2
Losing bets 0
Strike rate 100%
Number of bets 2
Total staked 60
Total returned 76,29
Yield 27,15%
Profit (or Loss) 16,29

seepps · 17-08-2008, 23:12

After several days of silence, here's another bet :
New Haven : Mauresmo vs Kanepi
30 units on Mauresmo at 1,4

seepps · 19-08-2008, 20:06

Mauresmo d Kanepi 62 67 62

The only problem is that I've been a little bit impatient when I took the odd at 1,4 at Pinnacle Sports because a couple of hours after it was 1,48 !!! But at this price it would not be a bet so ...
It's so good to be a beginner. If only it could be possible to be like that for the other strategies ;-)

Start bank 100
Current bank 128,29
Total staked 90
Total returned 118,29
Yield 31,43%
Profit/Loss 28,29
Winners 3
Loosers 0
Strike Rate 100,00%

seepps · 21-08-2008, 09:34

New Haven : C. Wozniacki vs M. Bartoli
30 units on C. Wozniacki at 1,366 @ Pinnacle Sports

Hope it will not be the first loss

seepps · 21-08-2008, 17:20

New Haven : A. Chakvetadze vs S. Cristea
30 units on A. Chakvetadze at 1,357 @ Pinnacle Sports

seepps · 21-08-2008, 20:59

A. Chakvetadze d S. Cristea 63 63
All the figures after the end of the pending wagger C. Wozniacki vs M. Bartoli

seepps · 21-08-2008, 21:17

C. Wozniacki d M. Bartoli 64 60

If only the luck could go on ...

Start bank	100
Current bank	149,98
Total staked	150
Total returned	199,98
Yield	33,32%
Profit/Loss	49,98
Winners	5
Loosers	0
Strike Rate	100,00%

Samba_SamPa · 22-08-2008, 19:41

Nice start mon ami (pillory for my poor French :p), hope you keep it up

seepps · 22-08-2008, 20:11

Thanks for your support, hope it will go on. The next step is the US Open with probably a lot of bets so we'll see ...
PS: it'a a good start for your french !!!

seepps · 24-08-2008, 21:27

1st round of US Open and 2 bets to start :
L. Davenport vs A. Wozniak 1,4 @Ladbrokes 30 units
F. Pennetta vs S. Vogele 1,232 @Pinnacle Sports 30 units

seepps · 25-08-2008, 06:10

Another bet for the 1st round of the US Open :
P. Schnyder vs A. Pivovarova 1,217 @Pinnacle Sports 30 units

seepps · 25-08-2008, 19:26

L. Davenport d. A. Wozniak 6-4 6-2

P. Schnyder d. A. Pivovarova 6-3 3-6 6-3

Start bank	100
Current bank	168,49
Total staked	210
Total returned	278,49
Yield	32,61%
Profit/Loss	68,49
Winners	7
Loosers	0
Strike Rate	100,00%

seepps · 25-08-2008, 22:12

Jie Zheng v Shenay Perry 1.316 @Pinnacle 30units

10-08-2008, 11:55	#1 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Tennis WTA Bias Hello everybody, After spending several months of reading threads, here's my first strategy!!! I would first like to thanks all the contributors for their posts. It helped me trying to create winning systems. So now, let's go direct to the point with the presentation of my first system. I collect data from different bookmakers and when I find a bias, I simply bet (odds <= 1,4). I don't pretend to be very creative, I know there are other strategies like this but let's see. This system is a real life (money) system. It might be crazy but the backtesting is really interesting (Yield 11,88% *** Strike Rate 86,25%) so no hesitation and I'll see. If someone is interested, I will post the backtest performed using tennis-data web site statistics. The staking strategy is basic. 30 units per bet. I've tried several staking strategies, but nothing more performing than this one ??? Suggestions are welcome. Starting bank 100 units. OK, I hope I don't forget anything, so let's go for the first bet !!! __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

10-08-2008, 12:02	#2 (permalink)
Mr Intensity Mens Doubles Punter Join Date: 21 Dec 2003 Location: Newcastle upon Tyne Age: 24 Posts: 9,978	Re: Tennis WTA Bias Good luck mate 30 units seems a bit high starting with 100 units, even if you are betting heavy favs. What if say at a big tournament you want to have a few bets at the same time? I think 20 units or even less would be a better way to go. __________________ I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - as support rather than illumination. (Andrew Lang) Everyone thought Einstein was crazy until he started kicking ass.

10-08-2008, 12:17	#3 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias Thank you for your advice Mr Intensity but unfortunately, the first bet has already been posted. And furthermore, regarding my backtesting, I never go under 0. Hope it will be the same ;-) Concerning the big tournaments, it's right that it may be difficult but the system provides only 50 bet per year so ... First bet : Stake 30pts tomorrow on P. Schnyder vs J. Craybas at 1,269 Ok now wait and see ... __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

11-08-2008, 17:58	#6 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias P. Schnyder vs J. Craybas 6-3 6-2 Even if everybody knows that no conclusion can be made after one bet, it's better to start with a win than with a loss. Starting bank 100 Current bank 108,06 Total staked 30 Number of bets 1 Winning bets 1 Losing bets 0 Strike rate 100% Yield 26,9% Profit (or Loss) 8,06 Doesn't seem to be any selection for Cincinnati, wait and see ... __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

11-08-2008, 23:43	#7 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias Here's one 2nd bet : Cincinnati //* S-W. Hsieh vs M. Kirilenko 30 units on M. Kirilenko at 1,274 Just just 5% more than the average of the other bookies. Hope I will not regret ... __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

12-08-2008, 06:08	#8 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias M Kirilenko (RUS) d [Q] S Hsieh (TPE) 62 75 Hope it will go on this way with the chance of the beginner ... Starting bank 100 Current bank 116,29 Winning bets 2 Losing bets 0 Strike rate 100% Number of bets 2 Total staked 60 Total returned 76,29 Yield 27,15% Profit (or Loss) 16,29 __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

17-08-2008, 23:12	#9 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias After several days of silence, here's another bet : New Haven : Mauresmo vs Kanepi 30 units on Mauresmo at 1,4 __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

19-08-2008, 20:06	#10 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias Mauresmo d Kanepi 62 67 62 The only problem is that I've been a little bit impatient when I took the odd at 1,4 at Pinnacle Sports because a couple of hours after it was 1,48 !!! But at this price it would not be a bet so ... It's so good to be a beginner. If only it could be possible to be like that for the other strategies ;-) Start bank 100 Current bank 128,29 Total staked 90 Total returned 118,29 Yield 31,43% Profit/Loss 28,29 Winners 3 Loosers 0 Strike Rate 100,00% __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

21-08-2008, 09:34	#11 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias New Haven : C. Wozniacki vs M. Bartoli 30 units on C. Wozniacki at 1,366 @ Pinnacle Sports Hope it will not be the first loss __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

21-08-2008, 17:20	#12 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias New Haven : A. Chakvetadze vs S. Cristea 30 units on A. Chakvetadze at 1,357 @ Pinnacle Sports __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

21-08-2008, 20:59	#13 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias A. Chakvetadze d S. Cristea 63 63 All the figures after the end of the pending wagger C. Wozniacki vs M. Bartoli __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

22-08-2008, 19:41	#15 (permalink)
Samba_SamPa Legendary Punter Join Date: 10 Mar 2008 Posts: 1,772 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1	Re: Tennis WTA Bias Nice start mon ami (pillory for my poor French :p), hope you keep it up

22-08-2008, 20:11	#16 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias Thanks for your support, hope it will go on. The next step is the US Open with probably a lot of bets so we'll see ... PS: it'a a good start for your french !!! __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

24-08-2008, 21:27	#17 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias 1st round of US Open and 2 bets to start : L. Davenport vs A. Wozniak 1,4 @Ladbrokes 30 units F. Pennetta vs S. Vogele 1,232 @Pinnacle Sports 30 units __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

25-08-2008, 06:10	#18 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias Another bet for the 1st round of the US Open : P. Schnyder vs A. Pivovarova 1,217 @Pinnacle Sports 30 units __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

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25-08-2008, 22:12	#20 (permalink)
seepps Never been Punter Join Date: 09 Aug 2008 Location: France Posts: 186	Re: Tennis WTA Bias Jie Zheng v Shenay Perry 1.316 @Pinnacle 30units __________________ Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself. (Winston Churchill) :-)

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