system spreadsheet - help

[shadowvkc]

Ok so there has been a little confussion on the odds part - myself included.

I have been in touch with my dad's friend and he said the "dont back the fav if odds are lower than 1" refers to to decimal odds on william hill.

BUT as someone pointed out, i think it was Kthom odds of lower than 1 do not exist. So i called him back with this and he then said "ohh i didnt mean that, i ment if the fractional odds are less than 1 which would make the decimal odds less than 2"

By now im slightly confused - as i see if from above it is only back horses with odds better than evens right?

Again sorry about all the confussion. And the other thing is I mean odds from the WilliamHill website.

@the man - for the evening races i have this:

newmark....lingfiel....catterick
1.30..........2.10...........2.20
2.00..........2.45...........2.55
2.35..........3.20...........3.30
3.10..........3.55...........4.05
3.45.........4.30............4.40

So Catterick 2.20
Lingfield 2.45
Lingfield 3.20
Newmarket 3.45

How did you get your results THE MAN?

[THE MAN]

My God.
Thankyou to shadow for clearing all that up...........................I'm now more confused than ever.
If you dont know the difference between evening & daytime racing(Your post above),your goose is surely cooked.

My interpretation of YOUR system would be thus.

3-5-8-13 in strict timed order(both nite & day)
If fav is odds on(on BF)then back 2nd fav.

Thats a simple idea,that is easly carried out(IF your bank is big enough).

THE MAN

[Furlong]

OK............

Have been following this thread with interest and find some of the content cofusing to say the least!!

Anyway i thought it might be interesting to 'paper trade' the selection method using a staking system i have used for many, many years using my own selecion method. Nothing complicated about it but one that generates a regular profit used in conjunction with a sensible betting bank.

For the selections i have followed the 3,5,8,13 pattern BUT have used race order times as per RP.(thats one part of this system that has me confused!)

Also, when using this staking method in my daily betting ALL odds are taken REGARDLESS of price - hence the need for an adequate betting bank.

I do not stop at a winner and the betting cycle last for one day only.

The results shown are for a six day period INCLUDING the weekend.

Should anyone want details on how the staking plan works i will gladly explain.

DATE	POINTS	RACE	MEETING	TIME	ODDS	ODDS	STAKE	R/Up	RES	RETURN	C/F	PROFIT	POINTS
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
02/07/09	10	3	Yarmouth	2.30	4	11	27.50	30.00	W	40.91			10
	10	5	Perth	2.50	13	8	6.15	10.00	L		20.00		30
	30	8	Perth	3.20	2	1	15.00	15.00	W	45.00			10
	10	13	Haydock	4.10	5	4	8.00	10.00	W	22.50			10
	10	3	Newbury	6.30	6	4	6.67	10.00	L		20.00		30
	30	5	Epsom	6.50	15	8	16.00	20.00	L		50.00		60
	60	8	Epsom	7.25	5	2	24.00	25.00	W	87.50			10
	10	13	Redcar	8.20	85	40	4.71	5.00	L
								£125.00		£195.91		£70.91
03/07/09	10	3	Sandown	2.20	9	2	2.22	5.00	L		15.00		25
	25	5	Warwick	2.40	4	11	68.75	70.00	W	95.45			10
	10	8	Warwick	3.10	1	1	10.00	10.00	L		20.00		30
	30	13	Doncaster	4.10	7	2	8.57	10.00	W	45.00			10
	10	3	Haydock	6.40	7	2	2.86	5.00	L		15.00		25
	25	5	Salisbury	7.00	13	8	15.38	20.00	W	52.50			10
	10	8	Salisbury	7.35	13	8	6.15	10.00	L		20.00		30
	30	13	Beverley	8.30	3	1	10.00	10.00	L
								£140.00		£192.95		£52.95
04/07/09	10	3	Beverley	2.15	7	2	2.86	5.00	L		15.00		25
	25	5	Leicester	2.30	1	1	25.00	25.00	W	50.00			10
	10	8	Haydock	2.55	11	8	7.27	10.00	L		20.00		30
	30	13	Leicester	3.35	9	2	6.67	10.00	L		40.00		50
	50	3	Carlisle	7.05	5	2	20.00	20.00	L		70.00		80
	80	5	Carlisle	7.35	5	2	32.00	35.00	L		115.00		125
	125	8	Nottingham	8.20	11	2	22.73	25.00	W	162.50			10
	10	13	Carlisle	9.35	2	1	5.00	5.00	L
								£135.00		£212.50		£77.50
05/07/09	10	3	Brighton	2.30	11	10	9.09	10.00	W	21.00			10
	10	5	M Rasen	2.50	7	4	5.71	10.00	W	27.50			10
	10	8	M Rasen	3.20	5	2	4.00	5.00	W	17.50			10
	10	13	Ayr	4.10	5	2	4.00	5.00	L
								£30.00		£66.00		£36.00
06/07/09	10	3	Mussleburgh	2.45	9	4	4.44	5.00	L		15.00		25
	25	5	Mussleburgh	3.15	8	13	40.63	45.00	L		70.00		80
	80	8	Brighton	4.00	3	1	26.67	30.00	L		110.00		120
	120	13	Mussleburgh	5.15	5	4	96.00	100.00	L		220.00		230
	230	3	Windsor	6.30	9	4	102.22	105.00	W	341.25			10
	10	5	Windsor	7.00	6	1	1.67	5.00	L		15.00		25
	25	8	Ripon	8.20	100	30	7.50	10.00	L		35.00		45
	45	13	Windsor	9.00	11	4	16.36	20.00	L
								£320.00		£341.25		£21.25
07/07/09	10	3	Pontefract	2.30	11	4	3.64	5.00	L		15.00		25
	25	5	Pontefract	3.00	6	5	20.83	25.00	L		50.00		60
	60	8	Wolverhampton	3.45	10	11	66.00	70.00	W`	133.64			10
	10	13	Pontefract	5.00	5	4	8.00	10.00	L		20.00		30
	30	3	Southwell	7.10	7	2	8.57	10.00	L		40.00		50
	50	5	Southwell	7.40	4	5	62.50	65.00	W	117.00			10
	10	8	Uttoxeter	8.20	Aband
								£185.00		£250.64		£65.64
								£935.00		£1,259.25		£324.25

[KThom]

Please do enlighten us with your staking plan furlong as I see no way for this system yo work without a correlation between the odds and staking level

[Furlong]

As pointed out in my previous post, this is a staking plan that i use on a regular basis - it is a simple recovery system with a few 'tweaks'. Here is an explanation on how it operates taking a sample from previous sheet using the header numbers to help with the instructions for use.

You begin by deciding on how much PROFIT you want to make on each bet and give this figure a point value. In my case it is £10. This will be the MINIMUM returned on each successful bet. Put this value (10) into column 1 for the FIRST bet of the day.

Inputs the odds into col's 5&6 and this gives you the stake amount in col 7.(col 1 divided by col 5 * col 6)

Now round-up the figure in col 7 to the nearest £5 above that figure. (never round-down) You now have the stake for that bet.

If your selection wins enter the full return into col 10 and the number 10 into col 13. The figure in col 13 is always carried forward to col 1 for the next bet.

You now repeat as above, but should your bet lose you add together the values of col's 1 & 8 and enter this value into col 11. You now ADD 10 to this value and enter that figure into col 13 - and carry forward to col 1.

Simply repeat for the next bet - resetting the figure in col 13 to 10 with a winning bet. The example below should be self-explanitory.

Hope this helps

Mike

DATE	POINTS	RACE	MEETING	TIME	ODDS	ODDS	STAKE	R/Up	RES	RETURN	C/F	PROFIT	POINTS
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
02/07/09	10	3	Yarmouth	2.30	4	11	27.50	30.00	W	40.91			10
	10	5	Perth	2.50	13	8	6.15	10.00	L		20.00		30
	30	8	Perth	3.20	2	1	15.00	15.00	W	45.00			10
	10	13	Haydock	4.10	5	4	8.00	10.00	W	22.50			10
	10	3	Newbury	6.30	6	4	6.67	10.00	L		20.00		30
	30	5	Epsom	6.50	15	8	16.00	20.00	L		50.00		60
	60	8	Epsom	7.25	5	2	24.00	25.00	W	87.50			10
	10	13	Redcar	8.20	85	40	4.71	5.00	L

[shadowvkc]

Well that looks pretty good. Is there any chance you can send me over a copy of the spread sheet mike? (adamsmith@dream-creators.com)

Also you said that you use this staking system on your own selections. How do your selections compare to the ones above for profits? aka is this system any good?

Adam

[KThom]

What are the two odds columns 5&6 representing?

[Furlong]

Originally Posted by shadowvkc

Well that looks pretty good. Is there any chance you can send me over a copy of the spread sheet mike? (adamsmith@dream-creators.com)

Also you said that you use this staking system on your own selections. How do your selections compare to the ones above for profits? aka is this system any good?

Adam

Hi Adam

Will send a copy asap.

Have to say that my selection system does not rely on 'random number selection' for want of a better phrase but results so far look promising and compares favourably with my own system. I aim to make around £350 - £400 per week and your 'system' at the moment has 'paper traded' with that target within reach - today will be day 7 so we shall see!!

To be realistic i would have to 'paper-trade' this for several weeks before drawing any solid conclusions.

Just for your info here are the results from the day meetings - again i have used RP for race time order so these might differ from your own. Showing a profit of £33.75.

08/07/09	10	3	Lincoln	2.10	7	4	5.71	10.00	W	27.50			10
	10	5	Newmarket	2.35	9	4	4.44	5.00	L		15.00		25
	25	8	Newmarket	3.10	7	4	14.29	15.00	W	41.25			10
	10	13	Catterick	4.05	2	1	5.00	5.00	L		15.00		25

[Furlong]

Originally Posted by KThom

What are the two odds columns 5&6 representing?

These are fraction odds. I just enter them into 2 cols and use a simple function to get the stake amount in col 7

[KThom]

Ok need time to properly look at your staking - surely using decimals makes calculating easier though? As for the backtesting it's v hard using shadows published methods but by using furlongs proposal this will be relatively easy

[shadowvkc]

Thanks Furlong. I only have a starting bank of £100 so I would need to scale down the stakes by reducing the initial points.

Just out of curiosity, to make 350-400 a week what kind of bank do you have?

Also I agree that the system propsed above seems to be much better than mine, and the staking system shows good hope - so maybe kthom could run a spreadsheet using the above system.

Thanks. Adam

[tafflizgreg]

can i hae a copy of spreashett please (taffcity@googlemail.com)
cheers

[Furlong]

Hi,

Here are the results for day 7 and also the profit figure for my 'paper-trade' over the 7 day period. The Racing Post has been used throughout for race time selection so may differ from those if using Adams(shadow's) rules for selection. Would be interesting to compare though..afraid i haven't had time to do both!

Interesting result............

Will get a copy of the s/sheet to those who have asked later tonight.

08/07/09	10	3	Lincoln	2.10	7	4	5.71	10.00	W	27.50			10
	10	5	Newmarket	2.35	9	4	4.44	5.00	L		15.00		25
	25	8	Newmarket	3.10	7	4	14.29	15.00	W	41.25			10
	10	13	Catterick	4.05	2	1	5.00	5.00	L		15.00		25
	25	3	Worcester	6.40	9	2	5.56	10.00	L		35.00		45
	45	5	Worcester	7.10	11	4	16.36	20.00	L		65.00		75
	75	8	Kempton	7.50	4	1	18.75	20.00	L		95.00		105
	105	13	Worcester	9.10	2	1	52.50	55.00	W	165.00			10
								£1,075.00		£1,493.00		£418.00

[shadowvkc]

Thanks for the email containing the s/sheet.

Am i correct with tomorrows selections:

DAY TIME:
New - 2.00
War - 2.20
War - 2.55
Folk - 3.55

EVENING:
Epsom - 6.50
Epsom - 7.25
Don - 8.15

Adam

[KThom]

Hi mike, please email your sheet to thomaskevin1@hotmail.co.uk. I need to fully understand your staking. I can probably self automate your sheet for you too

thanks.

[Furlong]

Originally Posted by shadowvkc

Thanks for the email containing the s/sheet.

Am i correct with tomorrows selections:

DAY TIME:
New - 2.00
War - 2.20
War - 2.55
Folk - 3.55

EVENING:
Epsom - 6.50
Epsom - 7.25
Don - 8.15

Adam

Hi Adam

Yes, your race times are as per the RP.

I am going to follow this with interest - lets see how it works out over the course of a few weeks.

Hope the s/sheet helps.

Mike

[KThom]

I have managed to run 6 months worth of data with the following criteria:

Favourite only - regardless of odds
the first 3,5,8,13 races of the day in chronological order
Only these meetings (no evening races)
and used what I think is Furlongs staking plan vs Shadowvkc's (3,5,8,13) and the results show below

Furlong	Bets	Wins	Win %	Stake	Profit	Yield
Jan	111	40	36.04%	£1,289.76	-£116.96	-9.07%
Feb	100	33	33.00%	£1,185.61	-£255.86	-21.58%
Mar	123	48	39.02%	£1,600.17	£65.70	4.11%
Apr	115	30	26.09%	£1,188.80	-£78.57	-6.61%
May	123	45	36.59%	£1,238.11	£208.44	16.84%
Jun	119	39	32.77%	£1,277.70	-£258.18	-20.21%
	691	235	34.01%	£7,780.16	-£435.42	-5.60%
Shadowvkc	Bets	Wins	Win %	Stake	Profit	Yield
Jan	111	40	36.04%	£758.00	£57.36	7.57%
Feb	100	33	33.00%	£702.00	-£15.91	-2.27%
Mar	123	48	39.02%	£899.00	-£36.60	-4.07%
Apr	115	30	26.09%	£841.00	-£106.14	-12.62%
May	123	45	36.59%	£899.00	£262.06	29.15%
Jun	119	39	32.77%	£870.00	-£56.28	-6.47%
	691	235	34.01%	£4,969.00	£104.49	2.10%

[shadowvkc]

do you think the evening races added would make much difference?

Clearly we can see that my staking plan does not work lol

[KThom]

Ummm your staking plan produced the positive yield

[shadowvkc]

ahhh yes lol