system spreadsheet - help

[shadowvkc]

In the result of a joint fav you would have the odds.

e.g

Horse 1 @ 6/1
Horse 2 @ 6/1

Both joint favs.

If you but £1.50 on each the odds would be the same as putting £3 on a single horse at odds of 3/1 so you would play them both.

As for today - it seems like a bit of a disaster day. But once the selections finish running i will put up the results.

Thanks. Adam

[shadowvkc]

Ok so the results are in:

DAY TIME -

Wolv 2.15 - lose - £3
Wolv 2.45 - lose - £5
Pont 4.00 - lose - £8
Wolv 4.45 - lose - £13

(please understand that I made a mistake with the betting today. I should have bet the fav at wolv 2.45 with odds @ 1.50 but instead I bet the 2nd fav. The fav won so I would have been up here and I would have stopped for the day time)

Starting bank £100
Ending bank £71

Lose of £21


EVENING RACES:

South 7.10 - lose £3
South 7.40 - profit £4

Starting bank £71
Ending bank £72

Profit of £1

This has been a disater of a day. BUT if i hadnt made the mistake then the result would have looked like this:

DAY TIME:

Starting bank £100
Ending bank £104.50

EVENING TIME:

Starting bank £104.50
Ending bank £105.50

[shadowvkc]

PS. The Uttox races was abandoned so no bets there

[KThom]

Ok, well I have extrapolated 1 months worth of meetings, including results, odds, times etc.

If you post clear and concise rules I should be able to run them through a tester tomorrow. From there the sample size can be increased.

[shadowvkc]

Ok rules:

First off I will write a little jargon buster:

Meeting = location of where the race will be held e.g Ripon
Selection = the horse which will be bet on e.g Ice Cold Lady
UK only raced = the races which appear in the Newspaper The Sun or Daily Mail (Probably more but I have not checked) - THIS IS IMPORTANT AS THE RACINGPOST.COM SHOWS MORE RACES WHICH ARE NOT INCLUDED.

Ok so every day is broken down into Day races and Evening races. You will know the difference as the day races start around 2pm and the evening races around 7pm.

From today examples in the SUN newspaper there were 2 meetings: Wolv and Pont.

You then write out the times in coloums, making sure that the meeting with the first race is in the first coloum.
So today Wolv's first race started at 1.45 and Pont started at 2.30

So you would then Do this:

Wolv's...........Pont
1.45............. 2.30
2.15............. 3.00
2.45............. 3.30
3.15............. 4.00
3.45............. 4.30
4.15............. 5.00
4.45............. 5.30
5.15


You would then go from left to right starting counting. when you hit number 3, 5, 8 and 13 then they are the selection for the day.

So:
1. wolvs 1.45
2. pont 2.30
3. wolvs 2.15
4. pont 3.00
5. wolvs 2.45

I then go to william hill and use the decimal setting so all race odds are shown in decimal.

If the decial odds is 1 or below on the fav then you back the 2nd fav horse to win. Otherwise always back the fav to win.

I use the staking system of:

1st bet = £3
2nd bet = £5
3rd bet = £8
4th bet = £13

(but i am open to chaning this to maxamise profits if possible.)

Once one horse has won then you stop for the day and bank the profits. The evening races is classed as a 'new day' in that even if you won in the afternoon races you start the whole sequance again in the evening starting with the first £3 bet.

If there are no winners in the afternoon races then you carry on with the evening races as normal with the begining bet of £3. If there are no winners in the evening races then the next day you start the afternoon races with the first £3 bet.

I do not bet saturday and sundays as on paper there seem to produce bad results.

I hope i have covered everything, and if you are unsure about anything please let me know and ill try to explain it differently..

@Kthom - I am very greatful for you taking the time to complile this. when you insert the results if possible you could do the above and then also do the above races but with different staking system. This 2nd staking system would just be to bet 10% of the bank on the first race. If it lost then the bank would have decreased by 10% e.g starting bank of £100. 10% = £10. new bank = £90 so the next bet would be £9 (or 10% of the new bank)

I really appreaciate your time.

Thanks. Adam

[KThom]

I can run any rules you want, personally I don not understand the selection process. In my eyes the Pontefract 2.30 selection would be the first qualifier in your example (I think as THE MAN also said) as this is the 3rd race of the day in chronological order. The left to right bit doesn't make sense to me.

Also, you say if the decimal odds is less than 1 you back 2nd fav. Do you mean less than 2.0 as 1.0 isn't a valid odd?

I think if the system is profitable (generates a high enough win rate) then your staking plan can be much improved by actually taking the odds into account rather than using a modified Martingale (I have something in line with Ansell staking that may work). However, I fail to see anything other than chance that has provided your winnings to date (no form, conditions, trainers, jockeys etc taken into account) - but am willing to test it.

[shadowvkc]

Ahh i see what you mean about Ponterfract being first but this is not the system.

With regards to the odd lets say anything less than evens would mean backing the 2nd fav.

Thanks very much. Adam

[Smokin Joe]

I am sorry, but this just can't work.

There is no system that will allow you to win long term by blindly betting favourites (or second favorites) in random races.

shadowkvc, how on earth can you justify omitting Saturdays and Sundays because the results don't look good. Any filtering has to have a logical reason for inclusion / exclusion.

If you have been lucky enough to be in front from this system, then bank it and thank your lucky stars.

[shadowvkc]

We will see when Kthom runs it in the spreadsheet. As i said I have been following it losely on paper since the middle of may and it looks to be working. Would be nice to see what it looks like on a spreadsheet with a different staking system

[Smokin Joe]

Originally Posted by shadowvkc

We will see when Kthom runs it in the spreadsheet. As i said I have been following it losely on paper since the middle of may and it looks to be working. Would be nice to see what it looks like on a spreadsheet with a different staking system

But can you provide a logical explanation for why it does work (because I don't see one)?

I mean that if instead of races 3, 5, 8 and 13 you used races 1, 2, 3 and 4 why would this not work? You are just picking random races.

[shadowvkc]

Just for the reason that a friend of my fathers has been using this pattern and he recons he is winning. But obvioulsy as you, we are a little skepiticle!

Since the middle of may we have been following it on paper, just jotting down if the day had a winner with odds of above 1 and for some reason most did leading us to believe that it could be profitable.

Thanks. Adam

[shadowvkc]

Ok so here are todays selections:

DAYTIME-

Catterick 2.20
Lingfield 2.45
Lingfield 3.20
Newmarket 3.45

EVENING -

Worcester 6.40
Worcester 7.10
Kempton 7.50
Worcester 9.10

[THE MAN]

Well,that was a bucket of doo doo wasnt it.
Above,in one of your posts you said that you should have backed the fav in the 2.45 & that that would have meant stopping in profit???????????

In your rules you state that if the fav is odds on,back the 2nd fav............Well that horse was 1/2 so how in Gods name would it have qualified.
Sorry,but it looks like the goalposts are starting to move about a bit?

THE MAN

[Trilobite]

i wont give my opinion on this system, however, why not go to Adrian Massey Favs stats Custom Report.

Tick Clear Favourite
Set the Year to 2009
Set the Month to June
Set the odds to evens and above
Tick Include List of Selections
Set the Max Number in Selections List to 1000


Paste the results into a spreadsheet and easily work out your system for last month.

[shadowvkc]

As you can probably tell im a little new to betting. But what i origianally said was if the odds are lower than 1 then do not back them and as this shows the odds were now lower than one

[THE MAN]

Lol.
Just make your mind up.
Is it going to be ................ odds on then back 2nd favourite or what?
THE MAN

[KThom]

there does appear to be several flaws at the moment. The rules need clear definition and more importantly reasoning behind them

if there are two meets at the same time how do you decide which is the 2nd and which is the 3rd for instance?

[THE MAN]

KThom.
By eliminating the Oirish races,there will not be any races that clash.

I think yesterday I would have been a quarter point up on the days racing and the same result as shadow at nite.

Today I have the same as shadow for nite races,but I differ during the day with.
2.10 Ling.
2.35 newm.
3.10 Newm.
4.05 catt.

cheers.
THE MAN

[KThom]

Ahhh yes fair one. And no horse below evens should be backed correct?

[THE MAN]

KThom.
As I understand(or should that be "understood")it.
If the favourite is odds on,then back the 2nd favourite to win,but I'm not sure now.
Thats the way I am looking at it anyway.

One other thing,does shadow mean odds from the market or from Betfair(there could be discrepancies there too).

THE MAN