Streakers - The Punters Lounge

davidc · 02-09-2007, 19:52

This system is untested - follow at your own peril!

Not sure if this really qualifies for Systems and Strategy or if it should be in Glory Hunters but if it needs to be moved thats ok.

This simple system is based on the premise that when a team is playing well (ie winning) they should be backed.

Rules:

A team which has a streak of 5 wins in a row should be backed for the next 2 games. I think 7 wins in a row is possible but 8 in a row would perhaps be exceptional, so only games 6 and 7 in the streak will be backed.

Back teams in 1st and 2nd leagues in major leagues worldwide.

Maximum odds 2.0

Home selections must have a minimum streak of 3 home wins and away selections must have a minimum streak of 3 away wins.

Starting bank will be 500 points and an agressive 10% (approximate) stake of a rolling bank will be used. That is if current bank is 600 points then stake will be 60, if bank is 400 points then stake wiil be 40.

I may add rules as we go, perhaps with an odds limit or home teams only.

davidc · 02-09-2007, 20:17

2 bets one for tonight (K.O.9:30

) and one for tomorrow 3rd Sept.

Deportes Tolima v Deportes Quindio

Deportes Tolima have a streak of only 4 wins but I'm going to include it as they have a streak of 3 home wins.

So bet 1: Deportes Tolima 1.45/£50 @ Expekt.

Hammarby v AIK Stockholm

AIK Stockholm have a streak of 5 but will be up against it at Hammarby - still it is a qualifier...

So bet 2: AIK Stockholm 2.35/£50 @ Expekt.

Sgt.Sunshine · 03-09-2007, 15:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by davidc

This simple system is based on the premise that when a team is playing well (ie winning) they should be backed.

The bookies will be licking their lips - have you ever wondered why bookies publish form guides?

A team playing well will in theory win more often than one out of form, but their odds will reflect this, and possbily over-reflect this, as most money still goes on form teams and the odds get biased. Very difficult to make a long term profit backing teams at the top of results-based form guides IMO.

davidc · 03-09-2007, 20:32

Results:

Deportes Tolima v Deportes Quindio

Deportes Tolima have a streak of only 4 wins but I'm going to include it as they have a streak of 3 home wins.

So bet 1: Deportes Tolima 1.45/£50 @ Expekt. LOST

Hammarby v AIK Stockholm

AIK Stockholm have a streak of 5 but will be up against it at Hammarby - still it is a qualifier...

So bet 2: AIK Stockholm 2.35/£50 @ Expekt. WON

Hi Sgt.Sunshine - thanks for the input.

You could well be right and the 'system' may well go tits up but I'm hopeful that it can produce at least some winners although the odds might mean that a profit is hard to achieve.
As I stated, the 'system' is untested, so at least by posting the qualifing bets we will find out if the bookies are right or if the 'system' is!

Sgt.Sunshine · 03-09-2007, 20:51

Good luck - make sure you get the best price you can

davidc · 06-09-2007, 19:02

2 Streakers for tomorrow:

CD Chivas v D.C. United

D.C United have a streak of 6 and have beaten CD Chivas in the last 5 games between the two teams:

Bet 3: D.C. United 2.81/£50 @ Betfair (Price quoted net of 5% commission)

Zwolle v Den Bosch

Den Bosch have a streak of 5 but I reckon Zwolle will give them a good game, but it is a qualifier so:

Bet 4: Den Bosch 2.3/£50 @ Expekt.

davidc · 10-09-2007, 19:26

Results:

CD Chivas v D.C. United

D.C United have a streak of 6 and have beaten CD Chivas in the last 5 games between the two teams:

Bet 3: D.C. United 2.81/£50 @ Betfair (Price quoted net of 5% commission) LOST

Zwolle v Den Bosch

Den Bosch have a streak of 5 but I reckon Zwolle will give them a good game, but it is a qualifier so:

Bet 4: Den Bosch 2.3/£50 @ Expekt. LOST

Both teams lost but they both had possibilities to win: DC United were 2-0 up but could only manage a 2-2 draw; Den Bosch had a man sent off in the 34th minute and then went 1-0 up, only to lose 4-1.

Back with more towards the weekend.

davidc · 12-09-2007, 21:01

Just been looking at the possibilities for the weekend and it looks like there could be quite a number of qualifying bets.

I'm going to add a couple of new rules to the first post (in bold italics) in an effort to avoid high odds bets, which obviously have less chance of winning!

The weekends bets will follow...

davidc · 13-09-2007, 19:20

Two streakers for tomorrow (Friday) night:

Bristol Rovers v Leeds Utd

Leeds Utd have a streak of 5 and have started the season off very well:

Bet 4: Leeds Utd 2.44/£45 @ Betfair (Price quoted net of 5% commission).

Legia Warsaw v Widzew Lodz

Legia Warsaw have a streak of 6 and also have beaten Widzew the last 6 times the teams have played:

Bet 5: Legia Warsaw 1.21/£45 @ Betfair (Price quoted net of 5% commission).

NB: The Leeds price was matched earlier today and the price has since drifted a little.

davidc · 14-09-2007, 21:49

Results:

Bristol Rovers v Leeds Utd

Leeds Utd have a streak of 5 and have started the season off very well:

Bet 4: Leeds Utd 2.44/£45 @ Betfair (Price quoted net of 5% commission). WON

Legia Warsaw v Widzew Lodz

Legia Warsaw have a streak of 6 and also have beaten Widzew the last 6 times the teams have played:

Bet 5: Legia Warsaw 1.21/£45 @ Betfair (Price quoted net of 5% commission). WON

Updated stats to follow after this weekends bets:

1 bet for tomorrow (Saturday)

Celje NK v Domzale NK (Slovenia 1st Division)

Domzale NK have a streak of 5, including their last 3 aways and thay have beaten Celje on their last 3 visits and have beaten them 9 from their last 13 games overall, with only 2 defeats in that sequence...

Bet 6: Domzale NK 2.42/£50 @ Betfair. (Price quoted net of 5% commission).
(Price requested - will update odds in new post if I need to settle for a lower price)

davidc · 15-09-2007, 13:29

Not able to get the price matched at Betfair and although Sportingbet have 2.35 I couldn't get a big enough stake there to include this price, so...

Bet 6: Domzale NK 2.25/£50 @ Paddy Power.

davidc · 16-09-2007, 11:28

Result:

Bet 6: Domzale NK 2.25/£50 @ Paddy Power. LOST

2 selections for today:

Rovaniemi RoPS v TPV Tampere

Rovaniemi RoPS have a streak of 5 and have won 8 of their 11 home games this season with no defeats.

Bet 7: Rovaniemi RoPS 1.4/£45 @ Ladbrokes.

Halmstad BK v Stockholm AIK

Stockholm AIK have a streak of 6 while Halmstad BK have lost 3 from their last 4, including their last 2 home games.

Bet 8: Stockholm AIK 2.3/£45 @ Expekt

davidc · 18-09-2007, 18:56

Results:

Bet 7: Rovaniemi RoPS 1.4/£45 @ Ladbrokes. LOST

Bet 8: Stockholm AIK 2.3/£45 @ Expekt. LOST

Both the above games ended as draws which leaves the figures not looking very good.

Stats:

Bets: 9
Won: 3
Lost: 6
Staked: £430
Returned: £281.75
Loss: £148.25

Sgt.Sunshine · 19-09-2007, 12:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by davidc

I'm going to add a couple of new rules to the first post (in bold italics) in an effort to avoid high odds bets, which obviously have less chance of winning!

Don't be scared of the big dogs, that's where the money is

davidc · 21-09-2007, 21:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sgt.Sunshine

Don't be scared of the big dogs, that's where the money is

Just need to get some winners!

3 bets for tomorrow (Saturday):

Mladost Lucani v Partizan Belgrade

Partizan Belgrade have a streak of 5. Odds are poor but it is a qualifying bet.

Bet 9: Partizan Belgrade 1.3/£45 @ Expekt

Hamilton v Livingston

Hamilton have a streak of 6, Livingston have won only 1 from 6.

Bet 10: Hamilton 1.61/£45 @ Blue Square

Leeds United v Swansea City

Leeds have a streak of 6 and have already beaten 2 of the current top 3 this season - Swansea are joint 3rd.

Bet 11: Leeds Utd 1.9/£45 @ Betfair (Net of 5% commission)

davidc · 22-09-2007, 22:45

Some selections for Sunday:

Tokyo FC v Shimizi S-Pulse

Shimizi have a streak of 6 wins and have won 7 from their 12 aways. Tokyo have lost 8 from 12 homes.

Bet 12: Shimizi S-Pulse 2.35/£45 @ Betfair

Moss v Honefoss

Moss have a streak of 6 wins, Homefoss have lost 7 from their last 9 aways.

Bet 13: Moss 1.5/£45 @ Gamebookers

Hibernian v Celtic

Celtic have a streak of 5 wins and although Hibs recent record against Celtic is ok I think Celtic will win.

Bet 14: Celtic 1.7/£45 @ Expekt

There may be some more, which will be posted later.

davidc · 29-09-2007, 14:04

Tried to post this last night, but the site was down.

Results (not good!!)

Bet 9: Partizan Belgrade 1.3/£45 @ Expekt WON

Bet 10: Hamilton 1.61/£45 @ Blue Square LOST

Bet 11: Leeds Utd 1.9/£45 @ Betfair (Net of 5% commission) WON

Bet 12: Shimizi S-Pulse 2.35/£45 @ Betfair LOST

Bet 13: Moss 1.5/£45 @ Gamebookers LOST

Bet 14: Celtic 1.7/£45 @ Expekt LOST

A couple of bets for today: (EDIT)

Zenit Petersburg - CSKA Moscow

Zenit Petersburg have a streak of 5 and are top of the league but have a tough game (which is reflected in the odds) against CSKA, who are unbeaten in 8 games.

Bet 15: Zenit Petersburg 2.35/£35 @ Expekt

Jef United Chiba - Tokyo FC

Jef Utd have a streak of 5 wins but will find Tokyo FC a tough game as Tokyo have a streak of 4 wins, but it is a qualifying bet.

Bet 16: Jef United Chiba 2.25/£35 @ Sportingbet

davidc · 30-09-2007, 11:58

Two more bets for today:

Marila Pribram v Hradec Kralove

Marila Pribram have a streak of 6 wins but this will be a difficult game.

Bet 17: Marila Pribram 1.75/£35 @ Expekt

Cucuta Deportivo v Boyaca Chico 1.8/£35 @ Expekt

Cucuta Deportivo have a streak of 5 wins.

Bet 18: Cucuta Deportivo 1.8/£35 @ Expekt

Updated results tomorrow.

Bedlam · 30-09-2007, 17:09

Unlucky so far David, there is obiously no future in this system, but often we can learn & take positives out of a failed venture. maybe you should looking at laying teams that have won 6 on the trot, on the basis that their odds are extra short & they're due a defeat!?

davidc · 07-10-2007, 10:29

HI Bedlam. The results have been bad so far and I had considered laying teams with a streak of more than 7 wins but being the stubborn punter that I am, I'm going to continue as is for another few weeks and hope that things improve.

Academica v Porto

Porto have a streak of 6 and have not lost to Academia in the 10 fixtures that they have played, winning 7 of these.

Bet 19: Porto 1.45/£40 @ Betinternet

Arsenal v Sunderland

Arsenal have a streak of 5 and qualify for the system.

Bet 20: Arsenal 1.24/£40 @ Betfair (Net of 5% commission)

02-09-2007, 19:52	#1 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Streakers This system is untested - follow at your own peril! Not sure if this really qualifies for Systems and Strategy or if it should be in Glory Hunters but if it needs to be moved thats ok. This simple system is based on the premise that when a team is playing well (ie winning) they should be backed. Rules: A team which has a streak of 5 wins in a row should be backed for the next 2 games. I think 7 wins in a row is possible but 8 in a row would perhaps be exceptional, so only games 6 and 7 in the streak will be backed. Back teams in 1st and 2nd leagues in major leagues worldwide. Maximum odds 2.0 Home selections must have a minimum streak of 3 home wins and away selections must have a minimum streak of 3 away wins. Starting bank will be 500 points and an agressive 10% (approximate) stake of a rolling bank will be used. That is if current bank is 600 points then stake will be 60, if bank is 400 points then stake wiil be 40. I may add rules as we go, perhaps with an odds limit or home teams only. Last edited by davidc; 24-04-2008 at 20:36. Reason: Changed to maximum odds 2.0.

02-09-2007, 20:17	#2 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers 2 bets one for tonight (K.O.9:30) and one for tomorrow 3rd Sept. Deportes Tolima v Deportes Quindio Deportes Tolima have a streak of only 4 wins but I'm going to include it as they have a streak of 3 home wins. So bet 1: Deportes Tolima 1.45/£50 @ Expekt. Hammarby v AIK Stockholm AIK Stockholm have a streak of 5 but will be up against it at Hammarby - still it is a qualifier... So bet 2: AIK Stockholm 2.35/£50 @ Expekt.

03-09-2007, 20:32	#4 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers Results: Deportes Tolima v Deportes Quindio Deportes Tolima have a streak of only 4 wins but I'm going to include it as they have a streak of 3 home wins. So bet 1: Deportes Tolima 1.45/£50 @ Expekt. LOST Hammarby v AIK Stockholm AIK Stockholm have a streak of 5 but will be up against it at Hammarby - still it is a qualifier... So bet 2: AIK Stockholm 2.35/£50 @ Expekt. WON Hi Sgt.Sunshine - thanks for the input. You could well be right and the 'system' may well go tits up but I'm hopeful that it can produce at least some winners although the odds might mean that a profit is hard to achieve. As I stated, the 'system' is untested, so at least by posting the qualifing bets we will find out if the bookies are right or if the 'system' is!

03-09-2007, 20:51	#5 (permalink)
Sgt.Sunshine Wycombe Punter Join Date: 04 Aug 2005 Posts: 897	Re: Streakers Good luck - make sure you get the best price you can

06-09-2007, 19:02	#6 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers 2 Streakers for tomorrow: CD Chivas v D.C. United D.C United have a streak of 6 and have beaten CD Chivas in the last 5 games between the two teams: Bet 3: D.C. United 2.81/£50 @ Betfair (Price quoted net of 5% commission) Zwolle v Den Bosch Den Bosch have a streak of 5 but I reckon Zwolle will give them a good game, but it is a qualifier so: Bet 4: Den Bosch 2.3/£50 @ Expekt.

10-09-2007, 19:26	#7 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers Results: CD Chivas v D.C. United D.C United have a streak of 6 and have beaten CD Chivas in the last 5 games between the two teams: Bet 3: D.C. United 2.81/£50 @ Betfair (Price quoted net of 5% commission) LOST Zwolle v Den Bosch Den Bosch have a streak of 5 but I reckon Zwolle will give them a good game, but it is a qualifier so: Bet 4: Den Bosch 2.3/£50 @ Expekt. LOST Both teams lost but they both had possibilities to win: DC United were 2-0 up but could only manage a 2-2 draw; Den Bosch had a man sent off in the 34th minute and then went 1-0 up, only to lose 4-1. Back with more towards the weekend.

12-09-2007, 21:01	#8 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers Just been looking at the possibilities for the weekend and it looks like there could be quite a number of qualifying bets. I'm going to add a couple of new rules to the first post (in bold italics) in an effort to avoid high odds bets, which obviously have less chance of winning! The weekends bets will follow...

13-09-2007, 19:20	#9 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers Two streakers for tomorrow (Friday) night: Bristol Rovers v Leeds Utd Leeds Utd have a streak of 5 and have started the season off very well: Bet 4: Leeds Utd 2.44/£45 @ Betfair (Price quoted net of 5% commission). Legia Warsaw v Widzew Lodz Legia Warsaw have a streak of 6 and also have beaten Widzew the last 6 times the teams have played: Bet 5: Legia Warsaw 1.21/£45 @ Betfair (Price quoted net of 5% commission). NB: The Leeds price was matched earlier today and the price has since drifted a little.

14-09-2007, 21:49	#10 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers Results: Bristol Rovers v Leeds Utd Leeds Utd have a streak of 5 and have started the season off very well: Bet 4: Leeds Utd 2.44/£45 @ Betfair (Price quoted net of 5% commission). WON Legia Warsaw v Widzew Lodz Legia Warsaw have a streak of 6 and also have beaten Widzew the last 6 times the teams have played: Bet 5: Legia Warsaw 1.21/£45 @ Betfair (Price quoted net of 5% commission). WON Updated stats to follow after this weekends bets: 1 bet for tomorrow (Saturday) Celje NK v Domzale NK (Slovenia 1st Division) Domzale NK have a streak of 5, including their last 3 aways and thay have beaten Celje on their last 3 visits and have beaten them 9 from their last 13 games overall, with only 2 defeats in that sequence... Bet 6: Domzale NK 2.42/£50 @ Betfair. (Price quoted net of 5% commission). (Price requested - will update odds in new post if I need to settle for a lower price)

15-09-2007, 13:29	#11 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers Not able to get the price matched at Betfair and although Sportingbet have 2.35 I couldn't get a big enough stake there to include this price, so... Bet 6: Domzale NK 2.25/£50 @ Paddy Power.

16-09-2007, 11:28	#12 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers Result: Bet 6: Domzale NK 2.25/£50 @ Paddy Power. LOST 2 selections for today: Rovaniemi RoPS v TPV Tampere Rovaniemi RoPS have a streak of 5 and have won 8 of their 11 home games this season with no defeats. Bet 7: Rovaniemi RoPS 1.4/£45 @ Ladbrokes. Halmstad BK v Stockholm AIK Stockholm AIK have a streak of 6 while Halmstad BK have lost 3 from their last 4, including their last 2 home games. Bet 8: Stockholm AIK 2.3/£45 @ Expekt

18-09-2007, 18:56	#13 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers Results: Bet 7: Rovaniemi RoPS 1.4/£45 @ Ladbrokes. LOST Bet 8: Stockholm AIK 2.3/£45 @ Expekt. LOST Both the above games ended as draws which leaves the figures not looking very good. Stats: Bets: 9 Won: 3 Lost: 6 Staked: £430 Returned: £281.75 Loss: £148.25

22-09-2007, 22:45	#16 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers Some selections for Sunday: Tokyo FC v Shimizi S-Pulse Shimizi have a streak of 6 wins and have won 7 from their 12 aways. Tokyo have lost 8 from 12 homes. Bet 12: Shimizi S-Pulse 2.35/£45 @ Betfair Moss v Honefoss Moss have a streak of 6 wins, Homefoss have lost 7 from their last 9 aways. Bet 13: Moss 1.5/£45 @ Gamebookers Hibernian v Celtic Celtic have a streak of 5 wins and although Hibs recent record against Celtic is ok I think Celtic will win. Bet 14: Celtic 1.7/£45 @ Expekt There may be some more, which will be posted later.

29-09-2007, 14:04	#17 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers Tried to post this last night, but the site was down. Results (not good!!) Bet 9: Partizan Belgrade 1.3/£45 @ Expekt WON Bet 10: Hamilton 1.61/£45 @ Blue Square LOST Bet 11: Leeds Utd 1.9/£45 @ Betfair (Net of 5% commission) WON Bet 12: Shimizi S-Pulse 2.35/£45 @ Betfair LOST Bet 13: Moss 1.5/£45 @ Gamebookers LOST Bet 14: Celtic 1.7/£45 @ Expekt LOST A couple of bets for today: (EDIT) Zenit Petersburg - CSKA Moscow Zenit Petersburg have a streak of 5 and are top of the league but have a tough game (which is reflected in the odds) against CSKA, who are unbeaten in 8 games. Bet 15: Zenit Petersburg 2.35/£35 @ Expekt Jef United Chiba - Tokyo FC Jef Utd have a streak of 5 wins but will find Tokyo FC a tough game as Tokyo have a streak of 4 wins, but it is a qualifying bet. Bet 16: Jef United Chiba 2.25/£35 @ Sportingbet

30-09-2007, 11:58	#18 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers Two more bets for today: Marila Pribram v Hradec Kralove Marila Pribram have a streak of 6 wins but this will be a difficult game. Bet 17: Marila Pribram 1.75/£35 @ Expekt Cucuta Deportivo v Boyaca Chico 1.8/£35 @ Expekt Cucuta Deportivo have a streak of 5 wins. Bet 18: Cucuta Deportivo 1.8/£35 @ Expekt Updated results tomorrow.

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30-09-2007, 17:09	#19 (permalink)
Bedlam Enigmatic Punter Join Date: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 849 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: Streakers Unlucky so far David, there is obiously no future in this system, but often we can learn & take positives out of a failed venture. maybe you should looking at laying teams that have won 6 on the trot, on the basis that their odds are extra short & they're due a defeat!?

07-10-2007, 10:29	#20 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 597	Re: Streakers HI Bedlam. The results have been bad so far and I had considered laying teams with a streak of more than 7 wins but being the stubborn punter that I am, I'm going to continue as is for another few weeks and hope that things improve. Academica v Porto Porto have a streak of 6 and have not lost to Academia in the 10 fixtures that they have played, winning 7 of these. Bet 19: Porto 1.45/£40 @ Betinternet Arsenal v Sunderland Arsenal have a streak of 5 and qualify for the system. Bet 20: Arsenal 1.24/£40 @ Betfair (Net of 5% commission)

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