The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System (+2.5 goals)

[Danny Cash]

One of my usual weekend highlights is to sit in front of the box on a Saturday with a few beers watching the goals go in with Jeff.

I usually do some sort of mini acca just to get through the afternoon and it's usually an over 2.5 treble or something similar so I thought I'd come up with a proper set of rules this season and opt for the over 2.5 five-fold for a bit of fun to brighten up the Saturday. I'm not really going to mind if it doesn't work but it'll fun trying.

I've not back-tested or proofed this but I am going live with it just for the hell of it with the theory that a winning bet will pay at least 16-1 so I 'only' need to land a couple of acca's throughout the year to break even.

I'm only going to concentrate on the English leagues and some bets may roll over to the Sunday.

I'm gonna keep the rules nice and simple and to be honest it's how I'd start to come up with a short list for any +2.5 bet really.

Football365 is a great site to use for stats and they provide average goals scored (last 5 home/away) and average goals conceded (last 5 home/away) for all leagues that I need.

Simply print off the list of fixtures for the week ahead and write down next to each team the sum of the AGS and AGC for each team.

eg. Barnsley play Plmouth next Saturday:

Barnsley lost their one and only home game 4-1 so they get a score of 5.
(AGS 4 + AGC 1)
Plymouth won their away game 3-2 and score 5 too. (AGS 3 AGC 2)
A total score of 10.

Obviously as the season has only just started this may not be a true reflection of the likelyhood of goals as results need to settle down and proper averages need to develop but ... I'm itching to start!!

Do this for all games in England and pick the top 5 total scores. Any ties, go for the away team that has the highest AGC (Thank you Top Savings). If you can't split them after this toss a coin. If you can't find a coin, you shouldn't be betting!!

I'll try and post all picks by Friday night so we all know who the five teams are come Saturday!

As always wish me luck!

DC

[munki]

Best of luck Danny

[kevsul]

Originally Posted by Danny Cash

One of my usual weekend highlights is to sit in front of the box on a Saturday with a few beers watching the goals go in with Jeff.

I usually do some sort of mini acca just to get through the afternoon and it's usually an over 2.5 treble or something similar so I thought I'd come up with a proper set of rules this season and opt for the over 2.5 five-fold for a bit of fun to brighten up the Saturday. I'm not really going to mind if it doesn't work but it'll fun trying.

I've not back-tested or proofed this but I am going live with it just for the hell of it with the theory that a winning bet will pay at least 16-1 so I 'only' need to land a couple of acca's throughout the year to break even.

I'm only going to concentrate on the English leagues and some bets may roll over to the Sunday.

I'm gonna keep the rules nice and simple and to be honest it's how I'd start to come up with a short list for any +2.5 bet really.

Football365 is a great site to use for stats and they provide average goals scored (last 5 home/away) and average goals conceded (last 5 home/away) for all leagues that I need.

Simply print off the list of fixtures for the week ahead and write down next to each team the sum of the AGS and AGC for each team.

eg. Barnsley play Plmouth next Saturday:

Barnsley lost their one and only home game 4-1 so they get a score of 5.
(AGS 4 + AGC 1)
Plymouth won their away game 3-2 and score 5 too. (AGS 3 AGC 2)
A total score of 10.

Obviously as the season has only just started this may not be a true reflection of the likelyhood of goals as results need to settle down and proper averages need to develop but ... I'm itching to start!!

Do this for all games in England and pick the top 5 total scores. Any ties, go for the highest odds on Bet365. If you can't split them after this toss a coin. If you can't find a coin, you shouldn't be betting!!

I'll try and post all picks by Friday night so we all know who the five teams are come Saturday!

As always wish me luck!

DC

I like it Dan.

And the pun with the coin.


All the best with this mate.

will be popping in of friday to see the slections.

Also what sites will take the bet.

[mcgin]

Sounds interesting. You been able to back test it at all?

[Danny Cash]

And...Blue Peter style...when you've done that you should end up with something like this....

Home	AGS	AGC	Score	Away	AGS	AGC	Score	Total Points
BARNSLEY	1.00	4.00	5.00	PLYMOUTH	3.00	2.00	5.00	10.00
IPSWICH	4.00	1.00	5.00	CRYSTAL PALACE	4.00	1.00	5.00	10.00
CHELSEA	3.00	2.00	5.00	PORTSMOUTH	2.00	2.00	4.00	9.00
DERBY	2.00	2.00	4.00	BIRMINGHAM	2.00	3.00	5.00	9.00
MIDDLESBROUGH	1.00	2.00	3.00	NEWCASTLE	3.00	1.00	4.00	7.00
BURNLEY	2.00	1.00	3.00	QPR	2.00	2.00	4.00	7.00
CHARLTON	1.00	1.00	2.00	SHEFFIELD WEDS	1.00	4.00	5.00	7.00
SHEFFIELD UTD	2.00	2.00	4.00	WEST BROM	1.00	2.00	3.00	7.00
MKD	1.00	2.00	3.00	SHREWSBURY	4.00	0.00	4.00	7.00
ASTON VILLA	1.00	2.00	3.00	FULHAM	1.00	2.00	3.00	6.00
EVERTON	2.00	1.00	3.00	BLACKBURN	2.00	1.00	3.00	6.00
BRISTOL CITY	2.00	2.00	4.00	SCUNTHORPE	1.00	1.00	2.00	6.00
CARDIFF	0.00	1.00	1.00	COVENTRY	4.00	1.00	5.00	6.00
SOUTHAMPTON	1.00	4.00	5.00	STOKE	1.00	0.00	1.00	6.00
CREWE	2.00	1.00	3.00	LEYTON ORIENT	2.00	1.00	3.00	6.00
TRANMERE	1.00	2.00	3.00	BRIGHTON	1.00	2.00	3.00	6.00
ARSENAL	2.00	1.00	3.00	MAN CITY	2.00	0.00	2.00	5.00
WEST HAM	0.00	2.00	2.00	WIGAN	1.00	2.00	3.00	5.00
HULL	2.00	3.00	5.00	NORWICH	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00
OLDHAM	2.00	1.00	3.00	BRISTOL ROVERS	1.00	1.00	2.00	5.00
PORT VALE	1.00	1.00	2.00	HARTLEPOOL	1.00	2.00	3.00	5.00
WALSALL	1.00	1.00	2.00	SWANSEA	1.00	2.00	3.00	5.00
LINCOLN	0.00	4.00	4.00	ACCRINGTON	1.00	0.00	1.00	5.00
BOTON	1.00	3.00	4.00	READING	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00
SUNDERLAND	1.00	0.00	1.00	LIVERPOOL	2.00	1.00	3.00	4.00
LEICESTER	0.00	1.00	1.00	WATFORD	2.00	1.00	3.00	4.00
PRESTON	0.00	0.00	0.00	COLCHESTER	2.00	2.00	4.00	4.00
WOLVES	1.00	2.00	3.00	BLACKPOOL	1.00	0.00	1.00	4.00
LUTON	2.00	1.00	3.00	GILLINGHAM	0.00	1.00	1.00	4.00
BRADFORD	1.00	1.00	2.00	WREXHAM	0.00	2.00	2.00	4.00
DARLINGTON	2.00	0.00	2.00	NOTTS CO	1.00	1.00	2.00	4.00
GRIMSBY	1.00	1.00	2.00	MACCLESFIELD	1.00	1.00	2.00	4.00
WYCOMBE	0.00	1.00	1.00	BURY	2.00	1.00	3.00	4.00
CHELTENHAM	1.00	0.00	1.00	SWINDON	1.00	1.00	2.00	3.00
HUDDERSFIELD	1.00	0.00	1.00	CARLISLE	1.00	1.00	2.00	3.00
NORTHAMPTON	1.00	1.00	2.00	YEOVIL	0.00	1.00	1.00	3.00
NOTTINGHAM FOREST	0.00	0.00	0.00	LEEDS	2.00	1.00	3.00	3.00
SOUTHEND	1.00	2.00	3.00	MILLWALL	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.00
HEREFORD	0.00	0.00	0.00	ROCHDALE	0.00	3.00	3.00	3.00
PETERBOROUGH	3.00	0.00	3.00	CHESTERFIELD	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.00
BRENTFORD	1.00	1.00	2.00	BARNET	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.00
MORECAMBE	0.00	0.00	0.00	MANSFIELD	1.00	1.00	2.00	2.00
MAN UTD	0.00	0.00	0.00	TOTTENHAM	0.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
CHESTER	0.00	0.00	0.00	DAG & RED	0.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
STOCKPORT	1.00	0.00	1.00	ROTHERHAM	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
DONCASTER	0.00