Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008

[Rushian]

A small loss for the day so far, but the system is still on the plus side having passed the 100-picks mark

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
82	E0	30/8/2008	Arsenal	Newcastle	H	10	1.45	Gamebookers	W	4.50
83	E0	30/8/2008	Bolton	West Brom	H	10	1.91	William Hill	L	-10.00
84	E0	30/8/2008	Everton	Portsmouth	H	10	2.10	Bet365	L	-10.00
85	E0	30/8/2008	West Ham	Blackburn	A	10	3.00	Ladbrokes	L	-10.00
86	E1	30/8/2008	Barnsley	Derby	H	10	2.55	Bwin	W	15.50
87	E1	30/8/2008	Burnley	Plymouth	D	10	3.40	Bet365	W	24.00
88	E1	30/8/2008	Doncaster	Coventry	H	10	2.38	Blue Square	W	13.80
89	E1	30/8/2008	Preston	Charlton	A	10	3.25	Bet365	L	-10.00
90	E1	30/8/2008	Sheffield United	Cardiff	A	10	4.33	Bet365	L	-10.00
91	E1	30/8/2008	Southampton	Blackpool	H	10	1.91	William Hill	L	-10.00
92	E1	30/8/2008	Watford	Ipswich	H	10	2.38	William Hill	W	13.80
93	E1	30/8/2008	Wolves	Nott'm Forest	A	10	4.75	Bwin	L	-10.00
94	E2	30/8/2008	Carlisle	Yeovil	A	10	5.50	Bet365	L	-10.00
95	E2	30/8/2008	Cheltenham	Leicester	D	10	3.40	Bet365	L	-10.00
96	E2	30/8/2008	Hereford	Crewe	H	10	2.40	Blue Square	W	14.00
97	E2	30/8/2008	Leeds	Bristol Rvs	H	10	1.61	Gamebookers	L	-10.00
98	E2	30/8/2008	Millwall	Huddersfield	H	10	2.40	Blue Square	W	14.00
99	E3	30/8/2008	Brentford	Rotherham	H	10	2.30	Blue Square	L	-10.00
100	E3	30/8/2008	Chester	Barnet	H	10	2.70	Bet365	W	17.00
101	E3	30/8/2008	Chesterfield	Wycombe	H	10	2.20	Sportingbet	L	-10.00
102	E3	30/8/2008	Gillingham	Accrington	H	10	1.83	Bet365	W	8.30
103	E3	30/8/2008	Lincoln	Grimsby	H	10	2.10	Bwin	L	-10.00
104	E3	30/8/2008	Macclesfield	Darlington	H	10	3.00	Bet365	L	-10.00
105	E3	30/8/2008	Notts County	Shrewsbury	H	10	3.25	Bet365	L	-10.00
106	E0	31/8/2008	Aston Villa	Liverpool	A	10	2.55	VC Bet	P	0.00
107	E0	31/8/2008	Chelsea	Tottenham	H	10	1.40	Bet365	P	0.00
108	E0	31/8/2008	Sunderland	Man City	A	10	3.40	Bet365	P	0.00

Summary Results
Starting bank:		1000.0
Current bank:		1070.7
Total amount staked:		1080
	Pending stake:	30
Total number of bets:		108
	Winning bets:	41
	Losing bets:	64
	Pending bets:	3
Strike rate:		39.0%
Average bet odds:		3.21
Average strike odds:		2.73
Profit (or Loss):		70.7
Yield:		6.7%

Three pending picks for tomorrow.

[Matthew]

Hi Rushian,

I've just read through your old thread and this one. I like what you have done.

I'd be interested to know what you explanatory variables are, do you have a definitive list you would care to share?

What range of scores do you predict, do you have a %age chane for 5-4 to the home team for instance or do you get to a point and do 1-(probs of all scores up to 4-4).

Good luck with the system, I hope you get beyond Oct this time. I reckon you might get 3 out of 3 today.

[Rushian]

Originally Posted by Matthew

Hi Rushian,

I've just read through your old thread and this one. I like what you have done.

I'd be interested to know what you explanatory variables are, do you have a definitive list you would care to share?

What range of scores do you predict, do you have a %age chane for 5-4 to the home team for instance or do you get to a point and do 1-(probs of all scores up to 4-4).

Good luck with the system, I hope you get beyond Oct this time. I reckon you might get 3 out of 3 today.

Matthew,

Glad that some people are following the thread. Sometimes, the (forum) silence can be deafening! Regarding your questions, the few explanatory variables used (definitely not as many as you had on the premiership model!) cover the general strength of each team, based on past results, and the form of the teams, calculated by some statistics from recent matches. Nothing which cannot be found in, or calculated from, the football-data files. Please allow me not to divulge more specific information on the actual variables used, although what I can say is that they are not too dissimilar with the ones that you had used in your attempt As I had written in The Yet-To-Be-Named (YTBN) System thread, the work was probably done simultaneously, yet independently, to yours!

Regarding the scorelines, the whole estimation procedure is written in a script so I predict up to something ridiculous as 9-9 and add everything up to get the probabilities of HW/D/AW. The sum of the three probabilities is then something like 0.99999 and the remaining is assigned proportionately.

Thanks for the kind words. For better or for worse, I plan to follow it all the way to May this time, and see where it takes me

[Rushian]

Three matches today, only one correct pick, but nevertheless small profit for the day

No

Div

Date

Home Team

Away Team