Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 - The Punters Lounge

Rushian · 06-08-2008, 19:34

Following last year's attempt The Yet-To-Be-Named (YTBN) System at creating a football prediction model and having made some necessary adjustments, I am prepared to give it another go. Information about the model itself is given in the link above, but to summarize it's based on modelling the actual scorelines of matches in the English Premiership, Championship, League 1 and 2 using some explanatory variables which deal with the standard of the competing teams, their current form, etc. The model produces estimated probabilities which are then translated into "fair" odds. The suggested picks represent value according to the model when compared to the available bookmaker prices.

Let me repeat that the model is still under development so this is a paper trail. Level stakes will be used and to make things a bit easier to follow, I'll use only prices available from bookmakers rather than betting exchanges. The bookmakers considered will be the ones available through the football-data website.

One last thing: the system attempts to find "value" bets. This means that the strike rate will be low (around 30%-35%) and I am expecting around 1000 bets over the whole season. Wish me luck!

Rushian

P.S: Oh, and I've thought of a highly imaginative name for the system ...

aliando · 06-08-2008, 19:38

good luck rushian!

shouldnt the thread be called "the now named system"?

Rushian · 07-08-2008, 03:57

Thanks for the wishes aliando

Good call on the name!!

For the weekend mtches, I am currently waiting for the football-data website to be updated with the available odds, before posting the model's picks. Otherwise I'll do a scan for the odds and post the selections, sometime tomorrow.

Rushian · 08-08-2008, 13:46

Well , the football-data website does not seem to carry the latest odds, so I've manually put them in my spreadsheets, turned the virtual handle, and Excel spouted out the results. Hopefully, they data entry went ok but if you notice anyting outrageous let me know.

A nice round 20 bets for the weekend:

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
1	E1	9/8/2008	Birmingham	Sheffield United	A	10	4.20	Bet365	P	0.00
2	E1	9/8/2008	Blackpool	Bristol City	H	10	2.50	Bet365	P	0.00
3	E1	9/8/2008	Cardiff	Southampton	A	10	4.00	Stan James	P	0.00
4	E1	9/8/2008	Charlton	Swansea	H	10	1.95	Gamebookers	P	0.00
5	E1	9/8/2008	Coventry	Norwich	H	10	2.37	Bet365	P	0.00
6	E1	9/8/2008	Crystal Palace	Watford	H	10	2.10	Bwin	P	0.00
7	E1	9/8/2008	Plymouth	Wolves	D	10	3.30	Bet365	P	0.00
8	E1	9/8/2008	Sheffield Weds	Burnley	H	10	2.30	Bet365	P	0.00
9	E2	9/8/2008	Hartlepool	Colchester	A	10	2.90	VC Bet	P	0.00
10	E2	9/8/2008	Huddersfield	Stockport	H	10	1.80	Blue Square	P	0.00
11	E2	9/8/2008	Northampton	Cheltenham	H	10	1.90	VC Bet	P	0.00
12	E2	9/8/2008	Oldham	Millwall	A	10	3.75	Stan James	P	0.00
13	E2	9/8/2008	Scunthorpe	Leeds	H	10	3.00	William Hill	P	0.00
14	E3	9/8/2008	Bournemouth	Gillingham	H	10	2.20	Bet365	P	0.00
15	E3	9/8/2008	Bradford	Notts County	H	10	1.85	VC Bet	P	0.00
16	E3	9/8/2008	Bury	Brentford	A	10	2.87	Stan James	P	0.00
17	E3	9/8/2008	Grimsby	Rochdale	A	10	2.85	Bwin	P	0.00
18	E3	9/8/2008	Shrewsbury	Macclesfield	A	10	5.00	Stan James	P	0.00
19	E3	9/8/2008	Wycombe	Morecambe	A	10	5.00	Stan James	P	0.00
20	E1	10/8/2008	Nott'm Forest	Reading	A	10	2.55	Bwin	P	0.00

Here's hoping for a good start!

Kozzin Benson · 08-08-2008, 20:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rushian

Following last year's attempt The Yet-To-Be-Named (YTBN) System at creating a football prediction model and having made some necessary adjustments, I am prepared to give it another go. Information about the model itself is given in the link above, but to summarize it's based on modelling the actual scorelines of matches in the English Premiership, Championship, League 1 and 2 using some explanatory variables which deal with the standard of the competing teams, their current form, etc. The model produces estimated probabilities which are then translated into "fair" odds. The suggested picks represent value according to the model when compared to the available bookmaker prices.

Let me repeat that the model is still under development so this is a paper trail. Level stakes will be used and to make things a bit easier to follow, I'll use only prices available from bookmakers rather than betting exchanges. The bookmakers considered will be the ones available through the football-data website.

One last thing: the system attempts to find "value" bets. This means that the strike rate will be low (around 30%-35%) and I am expecting around 1000 bets over the whole season. Wish me luck!

Rushian

P.S: Oh, and I've thought of a highly imaginative name for the system ...

Good Luck Rushian!!

Rushian · 09-08-2008, 05:46

Thanks for the wishes Kozzin Benson

Good news and bad news: Good news is that data from the webpage have been updated, so in order for my spreadsheets to have the correct information I've updated the odds. Bad news is that some of the prices have slightly changed (both upwards and downwards) so I am re-attaching the selections with the correct prices:

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
1	E1	9/8/2008	Birmingham	Sheffield United	A	10	4.20	Bet365	P	0.00
2	E1	9/8/2008	Blackpool	Bristol City	H	10	2.50	Bet365	P	0.00
3	E1	9/8/2008	Cardiff	Southampton	A	10	4.00	Stan James	P	0.00
4	E1	9/8/2008	Charlton	Swansea	H	10	1.95	Gamebookers	P	0.00
5	E1	9/8/2008	Coventry	Norwich	H	10	2.30	Bet365	P	0.00
6	E1	9/8/2008	Crystal Palace	Watford	H	10	2.10	Bwin

06-08-2008, 19:34	#1 (permalink)
Rushian Senior Punter Join Date: 12 Dec 2006 Posts: 143	Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Following last year's attempt The Yet-To-Be-Named (YTBN) System at creating a football prediction model and having made some necessary adjustments, I am prepared to give it another go. Information about the model itself is given in the link above, but to summarize it's based on modelling the actual scorelines of matches in the English Premiership, Championship, League 1 and 2 using some explanatory variables which deal with the standard of the competing teams, their current form, etc. The model produces estimated probabilities which are then translated into "fair" odds. The suggested picks represent value according to the model when compared to the available bookmaker prices. Let me repeat that the model is still under development so this is a paper trail. Level stakes will be used and to make things a bit easier to follow, I'll use only prices available from bookmakers rather than betting exchanges. The bookmakers considered will be the ones available through the football-data website. One last thing: the system attempts to find "value" bets. This means that the strike rate will be low (around 30%-35%) and I am expecting around 1000 bets over the whole season. Wish me luck! Rushian P.S: Oh, and I've thought of a highly imaginative name for the system ... __________________ researchability.blogspot.com

07-08-2008, 03:57	#3 (permalink)
Rushian Senior Punter Join Date: 12 Dec 2006 Posts: 143	Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Thanks for the wishes aliando Good call on the name!! For the weekend mtches, I am currently waiting for the football-data website to be updated with the available odds, before posting the model's picks. Otherwise I'll do a scan for the odds and post the selections, sometime tomorrow. __________________ researchability.blogspot.com