Starting at the peak - The Punters Lounge

Smug punter · 31-08-2007, 03:49

Hi from a newbie.

Every time I test a system and see that it is viable, I find that it has peaked or is just about to peak. If I hang around for a fall in profits, it hangs around the peak waiting for my patience to fail. Sure enough, the moment I start, it turns into a Roller-Coaster from Hell.

According to the Massey site, the best time to back the Flat fav is September. So now is the time to start. BUT check out my 2 month old system from prices from Betfair Lite

Most lost (18 Jul) - 36 pts
Most won (26 Aug) +56 pts
Total at 30 Aug +49 pts

Should I get off now?

Smug punter · 31-08-2007, 13:56

Here is the inspirational data from Adrian Massey

	Favourite for all Hcap Races
	Outcome			Return
	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W
January	1572	29%	60%	90%	91%
February	1432	28%	61%	90%	91%
March	1297	25%	56%	90%	91%
April	2190	24%	53%	90%	90%
May	3794	25%	55%	93%	93%
June	4882	26%	54%	89%	89%
July	5081	28%	55%	92%	91%
August	4370	24%	52%	85%	85%
SEPT	2879	23%	52%	95%	94%
October	1971	22%	50%	88%	90%

	Favourite for 3-yr only Races
	Outcome			Return
	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W
May	2795	37%	65%	100%	97%
June	2833	34%	63%	92%	92%
July	2208	35%	62%	91%	92%
August	1631	35%	60%	90%	89%
Sept	808	35%	63%	104%	100%
October	621	27%	55%	81%	82%
Nov	109	27%	61%	68%	76%
Dec	43	40%	67%	104%	98%

	Favourite for 3-yr only Races
	Outcome			Return
	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W
2002	941	33%	61%	89%	89%
2003	1031	35%	64%	89%	90%
2004	998	32%	62%	89%	90%
2005	989	32%	60%	96%	93%
2006	1056	35%	63%	102%	97%
2007	642	38%	68%	99%	97%

3yr-olds only kept me in profit, 3yr+ races a slight loss, so I'm not bothering with older horses for Sept. Lets hope the trend to higher returns for favourites since the advent of Betfair continues.

Smug punter · 31-08-2007, 14:22

Here are today's selections, I'm hoping they lose!

16:30 CHESTER 1m2f Hcap
Selections (7)	Back (101.7%)	Lay (97.6%)
Smokey Oakey	4.6 (£53)	4.7 (£43)

17:25 SANDOWN 1m2f Hcap
Selections (11)	Back (103.6%)	Lay (98.8%)
Sugar Ray	1.9 (£246)	1.91 (£7)

Smug punter · 01-09-2007, 13:20

Typical, the human factor has intervened again, I've just learned that my partner has had her leave changed from Oct. to Sept. So it has to be a paper trial of a week only.

Todays selections

15:15 RIPON 1m2f Hcap
Selections (8)	Back (103.0%)	Lay (97.6%)
Soul Mountain	3.8 (£120)	3.95 (£102)

16:15 SAND 5f Hcap
Selections (11)	Back (103.2%)	Lay (99.0%)
Gleaming Spirit	4.9 (£281)	5.0 (£334)

16:55 RIPON 1m Hcap
Selections (10)	Back (102.3%)	Lay (96.9%)
Ella Woodcock	4.5 (£13)	4.6 (£35)

19:55 MUSS 1m6f Hcap
Selections (6)	Back (103.0%)	Lay (94.2%)
Western Point	1.98 (£31)	2.0 (£12)

Smug punter · 02-09-2007, 03:42

Three betting strategies to be tested on this -

1.) Stake 10, starting with a 300 bank

2.) Starting with 10 stake every day, reduce stake by 1/5th after a win and 1pt+ profit. Bank of 300.

3.) Bank of 400, divide bank by 40 at end of each day, increase/decrease stake accordingly.

Last Months results, missed about half the meetings!

Date	-	Betfair favourite	F	Price	Back	Sys 1	Back	Sys 2	Back	Sys 3
1-Aug	-	Cheery Cat	1	7.60	62.70	62.70	62.70	62.70	62.70	62.70
1-Aug	-	Nassau Style	0	3.45	-10.00	52.70	-8.00	54.70	-10.00	52.70
1-Aug	-	Samira Gold	0	6.80	-10.00	42.70	-8.00	46.70	-10.00	42.70
2-Aug	-	Franchoek	1	2.94	18.43	61.13	18.43	65.13	20.27	62.97
2-Aug	-	Pipedreamer	0	7.80	-10.00	51.13	-8.00	57.13	-11.00	51.97
2-Aug	-	Shmookh	3	4.30	-10.00	41.13	-8.00	49.13	-11.00	40.97
2-Aug	-	Jamboretta	0	2.64	-10.00	31.13	-8.00	41.13	-11.00	29.97
2-Aug	-	Duty Free	1	2.66	15.77	46.90	12.62	53.75	17.35	47.32
3-Aug	-	Ravenna	1	1.68	6.46	53.36	6.46	60.21	7.56	54.88
3-Aug	-	Marozi	1	6.00	47.50	100.86	38.00	98.21	55.58	110.45
6-Aug	-	Silly Gilly	2	6.40	-10.00	90.86	-10.00	88.21	-12.70	97.75
6-Aug	-	Ishibee	0	8.80	-10.00	80.86	-10.00	78.21	-12.70	85.05
8-Aug	-	Monkey Glas	1	5.20	39.90	120.76	39.90	118.11	48.28	133.33
8-Aug	-	Disco Dan	0	3.40	-10.00	110.76	-8.00	110.11	-12.10	121.23
8-Aug	-	Caravel	1	2.32	12.54	123.30	10.03	120.14	15.17	136.41
8-Aug	-	Poppys Rose	0	3.70	-10.00	113.30	-6.00	114.14	-12.10	124.31
9-Aug	-	Nouveau	1	3.10	19.95	133.25	19.95	134.09	26.13	150.44
9-Aug	-	Ballroom Dancer	0	2.74	-10.00	123.25	-8.00	126.09	-13.10	137.34
9-Aug	-	Tetouan	2	3.15	-10.00	113.25	-8.00	118.09	-13.10	124.24
9-Aug	-	Titan Triumph	0	2.84	-10.00	103.25	-8.00	110.09	-13.10	111.14
9-Aug	-	Last Sovereign	0	3.35	-10.00	93.25	-8.00	102.09	-13.10	98.04
10-Aug	-	My Love Thomas	0	4.50	-10.00	83.25	-10.00	92.09	-12.40	85.64
11-Aug	-	Genki	1	2.64	15.58	98.83	15.58	107.67	18.85	104.49
11-Aug	-	Franchoek	3	2.84	-10.00	88.83	-8.00	99.67	-12.10	92.39
15-Aug	-	Blue Monkey	0	5.10	-10.00	78.83	-10.00	89.67	-12.20	80.19
16-Aug	-	Silca Elegance	0	4.10	-10.00	68.83	-10.00	79.67	-12.00	68.19
16-Aug	-	Glencal	1	1.86	8.17	77.00	8.17	87.84	9.80	78.00
16-Aug	-	Beautiful Madness	0	2.20	-10.00	67.00	-8.00	79.84	-12.00	66.00
16-Aug	-	Awwal Malika	2	4.00	-10.00	57.00	-8.00	71.84	-12.00	54.00
17-Aug	-	Princess Taylor	2	4.30	-10.00	47.00	-10.00	61.84	-11.30	42.70
17-Aug	-	Nouveau	0	5.50	-10.00	37.00	-10.00	51.84	-11.30	31.40
17-Aug	-	Raffaas	0	3.90	-10.00	27.00	-10.00	41.84	-11.30	20.10
18-Aug	-	Royal Rock	0	2.96	-10.00	17.00	-10.00	31.84	-10.00	10.10
18-Aug	-	Mias Boy	0	3.75	-10.00	7.00	-10.00	21.84	-10.00	0.10
18-Aug	-	Viva La Flag	0	6.00	-10.00	-3.00	-10.00	11.84	-10.00	-9.90
18-Aug	-	Black Rock	1	3.00	19.00	16.00	19.00	30.84	19.00	9.10
19-Aug	-	Parisian Dream	1	4.40	32.30	48.30	32.30	63.14	32.95	42.04
20-Aug	-	Swift Princess	1	1.79	7.51	55.81	7.51	70.64	8.26	50.30
20-Aug	-	Stir Crazy	0	4.00	-10.00	45.81	-8.00	62.64	-11.00	39.30
21-Aug	-	Yellowstone	2	3.85	-10.00	35.81	-10.00	52.64	-10.90	28.40
21-Aug	-	Dancing Jest	0	5.80	-10.00	25.81	-10.00	42.64	-10.90	17.50
21-Aug	-	Western Point	1	2.88	17.86	43.67	17.86	60.50	19.47	36.96
22-Aug	-	Distant Sun	1	4.80	36.10	79.77	36.10	96.60	39.35	76.31
22-Aug	-	Valery Borzov	0	5.20	-10.00	69.77	-8.00	88.60	-10.90	65.41
23-Aug	-	Topflightcoolracer	0	4.30	-10.00	59.77	-10.00	78.60	-11.60	53.81
23-Aug	-	Speed Gifted	1	5.90	46.55	106.32	46.55	125.15	54.00	107.81
23-Aug	-	Kindlelight Blue	2	3.00	-10.00	96.32	-8.00	117.15	-11.60	96.21
24-Aug	-	Gloucester	0	3.15	-10.00	86.32	-10.00	107.15	-12.40	83.81
24-Aug	-	Palmetto Point	1	4.40	32.30	118.62	32.30	139.45	40.05	123.86
25-Aug	-	Lap Of Honour	1	6.00	47.50	166.12	47.50	186.95	61.75	185.61
25-Aug	-	Record Breaker	0	5.00	-10.00	156.12	-8.00	178.95	-13.00	172.61
26-Aug	-	Caravel	1	3.20	20.90	177.02	20.90	199.85	29.89	202.50
26-Aug	-	Nice To Know	1	5.50	42.75	219.77	34.20	234.05	61.13	263.63
26-Aug	-	Magic Show	2	4.10	-10.00	209.77	-6.00	228.05	-14.30	249.33
28-Aug	-	Palmetto Point	1	2.30	12.35	222.12	12.35	240.40	20.01	269.34
28-Aug	-	Back In The Red	0	3.35	-10.00	212.12	-8.00	232.40	-16.20	253.14
29-Aug	-	Cheery Cat	0	4.40	-10.00	202.12	-10.00	222.40	-16.30	236.84
29-Aug	-	Midnight Sky	0	5.90	-10.00	192.12	-10.00	212.40	-16.30	220.54
29-Aug	-	Edge Closer	1	2.96	18.62	210.74	18.62	231.02	30.35	250.89
29-Aug	-	Sangfroid	1	2.30	12.35	223.09	12.35	243.37	20.13	271.02
29-Aug	-	Zain	1	3.85	27.08	250.16	21.66	265.03	44.13	315.15
29-Aug	-	Kavaloti	2	3.65	-10.00	240.16	-6.00	259.03	-16.30	298.85
30-Aug	-	Central Force	0	3.30	-10.00	230.16	-10.00	249.03	-17.40	281.45
30-Aug	-	Mangano	0	4.40	-10.00	220.16	-10.00	239.03	-17.40	264.05
31-Aug	-	Smokey Oakey	0	4.1	-10.00	210.16	-10.00	229.03	-16.60	247.45
31-Aug	-	Sugar Ray	2	1.94	-10.00	200.16	-10.00	219.03	-16.60	230.85

A ROI of 30% (if figures are correct)

31-08-2007, 03:49	#1 (permalink)
Smug punter Newbie Punter Join Date: 28 Aug 2007 Location: Tornado Alley, London Posts: 14	Starting at the peak Hi from a newbie. Every time I test a system and see that it is viable, I find that it has peaked or is just about to peak. If I hang around for a fall in profits, it hangs around the peak waiting for my patience to fail. Sure enough, the moment I start, it turns into a Roller-Coaster from Hell. According to the Massey site, the best time to back the Flat fav is September. So now is the time to start. BUT check out my 2 month old system from prices from Betfair Lite Most lost (18 Jul) - 36 pts Most won (26 Aug) +56 pts Total at 30 Aug +49 pts Should I get off now?