sports betting is for winners!

[oses32]

Draw 1.5 or even 2? Yesterday Kladno - Most odds was 1.8 in betsson and 1.6 in betfair... And final results was a draw... It was fixed because draw gave both teams safe place. If I would be bookmaker I would give 1.1-1.2 odds. NON VALUE?? (few days before odds for this match was even 3...

[2good4u]

Originally Posted by oses32

Draw 1.5 or even 2? Yesterday Kladno - Most odds was 1.8 in betsson and 1.6 in betfair... And final results was a draw... It was fixed because draw gave both teams safe place. If I would be bookmaker I would give 1.1-1.2 odds. NON VALUE?? (few days before odds for this match was even 3...

I thought I put in brackets "excluding fixed games", didn't I? Are you saying there is any chance odds for Milan-Liverpool draw are going to be 1.5?

[duffman]

The reason casinos dont change their prices on roulette is because there is an equal chance of each number coming up. Bookies change their prices to reflect public opinion. I'll not try to justify comparing true chance and percieved chance to try and win money again....so if you think youre right then youre right.

And to youre question. given that these are such good teams and it's never happened before (although not impossible)... then probably a hundred thousand to one for it to happen next season...so if you want to give me a million to one then i'd take it...and stick a quid on it...better chance than winning the lottery i'd say

[2good4u]

Originally Posted by duffman

The reason casinos dont change their prices on roulette is because there is an equal chance of each number coming up. Bookies change their prices to reflect public opinion. I'll not try to justify comparing true chance and percieved chance to try and win money again....so if you think youre right then youre right.

And to youre question. given that these are such good teams and it's never happened before (although not impossible)... then probably a hundred thousand to one for it to happen next season...so if you want to give me a million to one then i'd take it...and stick a quid on it...better chance than winning the lottery i'd say

Oh, I would be glad to give you million to one for it to happen (not only next season ). By the way, did you count the time it would take you to place 100000 such bets? (5 per day with such value would take you "only" some 75 years ) However, since your answer was yes, I have nothing more to say!

[duffman]

Thats a pity..I'm sure you and all the other 0 people on this thread are delighted youve totally proven me wrong. I'm sure the bookies will be delighted in the long run too

[duffman]

Sorry that didnt make any sense...I meant 'the other 0 people on this thread who agree with you'...(long day!)

[2good4u]

Originally Posted by duffman

Thats a pity..I'm sure you and all the other 0 people on this thread are delighted youve totally proven me wrong. I'm sure the bookies will be delighted in the long run too

I never meant to prove you or anyone else wrong and the last thing I wanted is to make this an argument between you and me. I only tried to express a different opinion but it seems that "value betting theory" is so deeply rooted among people that not so many people want even to discuss it with some "fool" who dared questioning "the sacred law of betting". Anyway, good luck with your long run (speaking of Man.Utd 0:10 scoreline) and if it does not pay out in the first 75 years, just explain to your heirs why should they continue with it.

[smyther]

Heres the thing 2good4u, if u are a winning punter than you take value wheather you know it or not, value isnt about backing teams at 10/1 it can be backing 1/2, it just all depends on there chances..
Say a bookie thinks a game is 50% 25% 25% a fair price to them would be 2.00 4.00 4.00 but bookies dont offer these prices they go 1.8 3.25 3.5..
Now if u take the 1.8 and make a profit out of 10, 20, 100 games its value, the bookies price was wrong and youe estimation of the team winning was right..
People dont search for value they pick matches they fancy and see if the price is value.. Not many people see 20/1 and take it just cause its value..
Most people try combine likey winners with value..

[2good4u]

Originally Posted by smyther

Heres the thing 2good4u, if u are a winning punter than you take value wheather you know it or not, value isnt about backing teams at 10/1 it can be backing 1/2, it just all depends on there chances..

If you are a winning punter, you are a winning punter. Period! In one of my previous posts I wrote the only thing that matters is if your bank is growing or not. If you are making profit no one will (or at least no one should) care if you bet on value or not.

Say a bookie thinks a game is 50% 25% 25% a fair price to them would be 2.00 4.00 4.00 but bookies dont offer these prices they go 1.8 3.25 3.5..
Now if u take the 1.8 and make a profit out of 10, 20, 100 games its value, the bookies price was wrong and youe estimation of the team winning was right..

If I make profit out of 10, 20, 100 games like you said it means my estimation of the team winning was right but it does not mean the bookies price was wrong. And in your example, 1.8 is not a value because the real price should be 2.00 (like you said).

People dont search for value they pick matches they fancy and see if the price is value.. Not many people see 20/1 and take it just cause its value..
Most people try combine likey winners with value..

I agree with this last paragraph and I see you understood my example with 1000000/1 while real odds should be 100000/1. However, I still do not see why taking for example 1.3 while real odds should be 1.5 is wrong. If it is lost, it is lost even if the odds were 2.3.

But most of the people still first searches for value instead of searching for a winner. Just look at tomorrow's game between Stuttgart and Cottbus for instance. To me, whatever odds offered on Cottbus win I would not take while there are many who would say for example (10.00 for away win is real, give me 30.00 and I will take it)

[smyther]

Do u keep a record of all your bets.. If u take 1.3 and win constantly it is value if not u lose its not.. And above u said the 1.8 isnt value because bookies had it as 2.00 is not true if u win at it constantly it was value they where wrong you where right..
A winner punter is a value punter if they know it or not.. you cannot take bad prices all the time and win..
Say you have a 90% strike rate on all bets you win 9/10 90/100 etc and you take 1.09 all the time you'll lose and if you dont think you can get these prices they are widely available on betfair and worse...
If u want to see this in action post up bets eveyday or just record them take the worst price available at a bookie and the best see the differnece in yield..
Now taking the best price at a bookie isnt always value but it should give some indication..

[traderpaul]

This has been an interesting thread.
In all free markets (of which gambling markets are one) participants will only enter into a transaction when they see a benefit, or value, to themselves. If a benefit is not perceived there will not be a bet. The reality is that "value" will have different meaning to each participant in a market. If all participants valued an event exactly the same way no transactions would take place! I think this is the point that 2good4u was originally trying to make. All participants are seeking value but only some will make money. The question of finding value is moot because we are all trying to find value, we just hope to find it in different ways. The difference between participants is whether or not they make money. So did you find value because you made money, or did you find money because you calculated value?
2good4u showed us that, despite his claim that value is of no relevance to himself, he uses value because he thinks that the odds on some of Sonix system selections were too low to be value selections! (Sorry 2good4u, I'm on your side).

The mistake that is often made is to search for the one "correct", or "right", method for defining value. Then the mistake is compounded by claiming that someone on the other side of the "correct" bet must be wrong.

Lets look at the typical simplistic example of value betting. Bettor A has developed a mathematical model that tells him that the fair price for Liverpool is 1.8 so an hour before the match starts Bettor A logs into Betfair and sees he can back Liverpool at 2. This is a value bet and will make Bettor A money in the long run. In theory anyway. We don't know how long the model will remain valid. The model may have been overly curvefitted such that future results will not compare to the historical testing period. On the other hand maybe it's a great model. Only time and profit will tell. If the method makes money Bettor A will say has a great value betting method. If he loses over a period of time, back to the drawingboard.
Bettor B also has a value betting method based on price momentum he sees on Betfair. He was very happy he got matched on his lay of Liverpool at 2 and covered at 2.1 at the start time. As with Bettor A we do not know if Bettor B has a good method. Only time and profit will tell.
Now some may say that Bettor B is a momentum trader. I say he is a value bettor who uses his knowledge of momentum to find value bets. If he doesn't perceive any value he does not make the bet.

If you perceive value in backing Liverpool @ 2,you must realize that another profitable bettor may perceive value in laying Liverpool @ 2. If you can do this then you can remain open to changes in the marketplace so that you can improve your own methods.