Somethin strange

[sjuesju]

I am not so sure is this the best place to post this, but I have to share my surprise with somebody. I started a paper sheet project few weeks ago. Shortly explanation: the project is something about soccer betting on all favorites where the odds for them are over 2.2. What a big surpise came when I saw the first 60 games with more than 50% wins for the favorites.
Does anybody has searched for something similar to this?

[deez]

What percentage of wins was it? 60 may be too small a sample size though sounds promising!

[sjuesju]

The percent is actually 53 multiply by 2.2 minimal gives 116.6% ROI and there were lot of matches high above 2.2. It is strange and may be it is something which will not continue longer. I don't know.

[deez]

Are you doing this for all leagues? I assume its scandinavian and south american leagues mostly at the minute as there the only real summer leagues. may try to back test this a bit

[sjuesju]

I takes the odds and the games from betexplorer. You know this site shows average odds and where the site shows that the favorite has odds over 2.2 I bet for it. It is a paper trial, I must add.

[KThom]

Hi, I have back tested this theory over 12 leagues from the past 5 seasons (my current data set). From 10,070 games, it shows 1,430 winners and 2,228 loosers from a total 3,658 qualifiers. 39% s/r and a loss of 20,469.06 from 100 point level stakes

Just my calculations - I wish you luck if you pursue this

[sjuesju]

39% is not enough I am trying something with martingale and I expected that percent exactly. However, let me ask you something. Is there in your database any high picks like mine 53% wins for the favorites and the opposite f.e. 100 matches where the favorites took only f.e. 15 games from 100. My question is if we considered 39% for our base could we use those picks, if there is any at all.

[KThom]

Originally Posted by sjuesju

39% is not enough I am trying something with martingale and I expected that percent exactly. However, let me ask you something. Is there in your database any high picks like mine 53% wins for the favorites and the opposite f.e. 100 matches where the favorites took only f.e. 15 games from 100. My question is if we considered 39% for our base could we use those picks, if there is any at all.

not quite sure if I understand what you're asking?
I don't have the data stored in chronological order - they are done league by league so looking at any patterns or runs wouldn't be accurate

[sjuesju]

You have understood what I asked but if you have the data round after round the same pattern can be searched I think.

[THE MAN]

KThom.
Utilising your figures above.............does this not scream out to be used as a LAYING system?
THE MAN

[KThom]

Originally Posted by THE MAN

KThom.
Utilising your figures above.............does this not scream out to be used as a LAYING system?
THE MAN

nice thinking THE MAN, but looked at this and the figures only return a 1.89% yield

[THE MAN]

OkeeDokeee KThom.
Worth a thought tho' eh
THE MAN

[sjuesju]

Here are the final stats for the mount. I must say it still amaze me how effective will that be if those number continue. However, I do not believe it. Here are the stats:

Favorite’s wins = 46%
Draws = 25%
Underdog’s wins = 29%
All this is from 124 matches played on June.

I think the correct percents will be 39-40% wins for the favorites.

[cmoi14]

thankh you
you will play french favori in the next season ?

[sjuesju]

What do you mean? I checked the French League 1 a week ago, but it doesn't show anything profitable. At least the last 5 seasons together didn't. The last one was profitable.

[cmoi14]

ok