Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only

[Samba_SamPa]

Hi all, trying to develop a winning system to make some money from the NBA. Using statistics regarding season performance, recent form [last 10 games] and seasonal H2Hs, I have generated 'spreads' for the Point Spread and the Total Points for each match. Where the lines offered are outside of my spread then that indicates a betting opportunity.

I am still working on a suitable staking plan, so for now it will be to level stakes until I can identify the strengths and weaknesses of the system.

So, starting with tonight's games and a bank of 100pts...

Chicago @ Milwaukee

Points spread [Level - MIL by 2]
Line Available [CHI +4; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked

Total Points [196-204]
Line Available [Under 205; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked

Cleveland @ Philadelphia

Points spread [Level - PHI by 1]
Line Available [CLE +4.5; 2.00; Pinnacle] - 1pt staked

Total Points [183-192]
Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET

San Antonio @ Sacramento

Points Spread [SAN by 1 - SAN by 4]
Line Available [SAC +4.5; 1.90; vcbet] - 1pt staked

Total Points [194-197]
Line Available [Over 184.5; 1.90; vcbet] - 1pt staked

Indiana @ Washington

Points Spread [IND by 2 - WAS by 1]
Line Available [IND +5; 1.91; Various] - 1pt staked

Total Points [191-204]
Line Available [Under 207.5; 1.90; Expekt] - 1pt staked

Miami @ Toronto

Points Spread [TOR by 10 - TOR by 27]
Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET

Total Points [181-186]
Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET

Boston @ NY Knicks

Points Spread [BOS by 10 - BOS by 19]
Line Available [BOS -6.5; 1.80; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked

Total Points [195-202]
Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET

Houston @ Utah

Points Spread [level - UTA by 5]
Line Available [HOU +10; 1.91; Stan James] - 1pt staked

Total Points [194-195]
Line Available [Over 189.5; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked

Golden State @ Phoenix

Points Spread [GS by 1 - PHE by 3]
Line Available [GS +5; 1.91; Paddy Power] - 1pt staked

Total Points [217-233]
Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET


Starting Bank - 100pts
Staked - 11pts
New Bank - 89pts

[Grex]

I wish you good luck with your selections, Samba SamPa . I´m not really into NBA, but with the European football (soccer) season drawing to a close, I´m on the look-out for alternatives during the summer season.

One comment..... I´m always a bit wary of taking H2H´s into account.... I have never managed to successfully use this data for football predictions.

Anyway, as I said, good luck

[Samba_SamPa]

Originally Posted by Samba_SamPa

Chicago @ Milwaukee 151-135

Points spread [Level - MIL by 2]
Line Available [CHI +4; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked

Total Points [196-204]
Line Available [Under 205; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked

Cleveland @ Philadelphia 91-90

Points spread [Level - PHI by 1]
Line Available [CLE +4.5; 2.00; Pinnacle] - 1pt staked

San Antonio @ Sacramento 101-98

Points Spread [SAN by 1 - SAN by 4]
Line Available [SAC +4.5; 1.90; vcbet] - 1pt staked

Total Points [194-197]
Line Available [Over 184.5; 1.90; vcbet] - 1pt staked

Indiana @ Washington 110-117

Points Spread [IND by 2 - WAS by 1]
Line Available [IND +5; 1.91; Various] - 1pt staked

Total Points [191-204]
Line Available [Under 207.5; 1.90; Expekt] - 1pt staked

Miami @ Toronto

Boston @ NY Knicks 99-93

Points Spread [BOS by 10 - BOS by 19]
Line Available [BOS -6.5; 1.80; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked

Houston @ Utah 96-105

Points Spread [level - UTA by 5]
Line Available [HOU +10; 1.91; Stan James] - 1pt staked

Total Points [194-195]
Line Available [Over 189.5; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked

Golden State @ Phoenix 116-122

Points Spread [GS by 1 - PHE by 3]
Line Available [GS +5; 1.91; Paddy Power] - 1pt staked


Starting Bank - 100pts
Staked - 11pts
New Bank - 89pts

Not exactly a path to riches but a good starting point for refining the system. A small profit from the first 11 selections. Some close shaves too that could have made a big difference to the end result, but that's life. Will post tonight's selections up tonight.

Cheers for the best wishes Grex

Overall Record

Bets 11
Winners 6
Losers 5
Strike Rate 54.55%
P/L +0.53pts
Staked 11pts
Yield +4.82%
Average Odds 1.91

Point Spread Record

Bets 7
Winners 4
Losers 3
Strike Rate 57.14%
P/L +0.72pts
Staked 7pts
Yield +10.29%
Average Odds 1.91

Total Points Record

Bets 4
Winners 2
Losers 2
Strike Rate 50%
P/L -0.19pts
Staked 4pts
Yield -4.75%
Average Odds 1.91


New Bank 100.53pts

[Samba_SamPa]

Orlando @ Atalanta

Points Spread [ATA by 2 - ORL by 2]
Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET

Total Points [200-202]
Line Available [Under 205.5pts; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt Staked

Charlotte @ NJ Nets

Points Spread [NJ by 1 - CHA by 2]
Line Available [Charlotte +4; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked

Total Points [203-206]
Line Available [Under 209.5pts; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked

Minnesota @ Detroit

Points Spread [DET by 7 - DET by 9]
Line Available [Detroit -6.5; 1.91; Paddy Power] - 1pt staked

Total Points [189-193]
Line Available [Over 185pts; 1.90; Expekt] - 1pt staked

LA Clippers @ New Orleans

Points Spread [NO by 8 - NO by 12]
Line Available [LA Clippers +16; 1.91; Stan James] - 1pt staked

Total Points [192-200]
Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET

Memphis @ Portland

Points Spread [level - POR by 5]
Line Available [Memphis +11.5; 1.87; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked

Total Points [202-207]
Line Available [within suggested spread]

Sacramento @ LA Lakers

Points Spread [LA by 3 - LA by 9]
Line Available [Sacramento +17.5pts; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked

Total Points [209-217]
Line Available [Under 217.5pts; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked


Bank 100.53pts
Staked 9pts

[Grex]

Nice results yesterday.... well done, Samba SamPa

Just one question.... are the selected odds the best available? I checked on Pinnacle and, in some cases their odds are better:

Originally Posted by Samba_SamPa

Charlotte @ NJ Nets

Points Spread [NJ by 1 - CHA by 2]
Line Available [Charlotte +4; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked

Total Points [203-206]
Line Available [Under 209.5pts; 1.91; Ladbrokes]... Pinnacle 2.00

LA Clippers @ New Orleans

Points Spread [NO by 8 - NO by 12]
Line Available [LA Clippers +16; 1.91; Stan James]... Pinnacle 1.917

Total Points [192-200]
Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET

Memphis @ Portland

Points Spread [level - POR by 5]
Line Available [Memphis +11.5; 1.87; Ladbrokes]... Pinnacle 1.877

Total Points [202-207]
Line Available [within suggested spread]

Sacramento @ LA Lakers

Points Spread [LA by 3 - LA by 9]
Line Available [Sacramento +17.5pts; 1.94; Canbet]... Pinnacle 1.952

Total Points [209-217]
Line Available [Under 217.5pts; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked

Also, if you take the example of Memphis +11.5 @ 1.87 (Ladbrokes) - with Pinnacle, you can get Memphis +10 (which still meets your criteria of "Level - POR by 5") @ 2.12, which is a significant odds advantage.

By the way, I have no commercial connection with Pinnacle !!!

[bunnychaser]

looks interesting i would love to follow but i havnt got a clue what the betting means or the abreviations you use any chance you could explain ?

[Samba_SamPa]

Originally Posted by bunnychaser

looks interesting i would love to follow but i havnt got a clue what the betting means or the abreviations you use any chance you could explain ?

Hi Bunnychaser, I will try my best. I will take one of the matches as an example....

Charlotte @ NJ Nets [the game; NJ (New Jersey) at home to Charlotte]

Points Spread [NJ by 1 - CHA by 2] [my system calculates that the end result will be somewhere between New Jersey winning by 1pt to Charlotte winning by 2pts]
Line Available [Charlotte +4; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked [This is what is available with the bookies, so here: Expekt is the bookmaker, 1.91 is the decimal odds available, and Charlotte receiving a 4pt start is the bet I have struck. I have taken this bet as so long as the outcome comes within the predicted range of outcomes then I will win]

Total Points [203-206] [my system calculates that the total number of points scored in the match will be between 203 and 206]
Line Available [Under 209.5pts; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked [like above, Ladbrokes are offering 1.91 about there being less than 209.5pts, so, if my system is to be correct, i will win the bet]


I hope that this explains it for you, although it may well look as clear as mud

[Samba_SamPa]

Originally Posted by Grex

Nice results yesterday.... well done, Samba SamPa

Just one question.... are the selected odds the best available? I checked on Pinnacle and, in some cases their odds are better:



Also, if you take the example of Memphis +11.5 @ 1.87 (Ladbrokes) - with Pinnacle, you can get Memphis +10 (which still meets your criteria of "Level - POR by 5") @ 2.12, which is a significant odds advantage.

By the way, I have no commercial connection with Pinnacle !!!

Thanks for the input, Grex. I used an odds comparison site to see the best odds available, and, thinking back, the Pinnacle column was empty in all the cases. This is probably due to the fact I know Pinnacle are the best for continuously updating their lines, maybe the odds comparison site can't be arrsed with continuously updating what they are offering.

Tomorrow I shall check Pinnacle in 'person'


Your 2nd point is a good point (as was the 1st ) - what I have done so far is look for the line with most 'cushion' from my predicted spread, then taken the best odds available for that line. Also, as of tomorrow, I will source the best odds available outside of my spread.

Cherers matey, 4 out of 6 will make me happy tonight, but I am feeling pessimistic with having all the big rags playing for me it seems!

[Grex]

Thanks for the constructive response

Originally Posted by Samba_SamPa

....... but I am feeling pessimistic with having all the big rags playing for me it seems!

Excuse my ignorance.... haven´t got a clue what you mean by "the big rags"

[Samba_SamPa]

Originally Posted by Grex

Excuse my ignorance.... haven´t got a clue what you mean by "the big rags"

I meant the term 'rag' as in 'big underdog'.

LA Clippers, Memphis and Sacramento are all big underdogs, whom I am relying on not to suffer a thrashing.

[Grex]

Thanks for the "education"

[Samba_SamPa]

Well... I WAS worried about having the underdogs needing to avoid heavy defeats a bad night... but onwards and upwards...

And the overtime was cruel in the NJ - Charlotte game, turning 2 winning bets into a loser and a push

Originally Posted by Samba_SamPa

Orlando @ Atalanta 121-105

Total Points [200-202]
Line Available [Under 205.5pts; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt Staked

Charlotte @ NJ Nets 108-112 (after overtime )

Points Spread [NJ by 1 - CHA by 2]
Line Available [Charlotte +4; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked

Total Points [203-206]
Line Available [Under 209.5pts; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked

Minnesota @ Detroit 103-115

Points Spread [DET by 7 - DET by 9]
Line Available [Detroit -6.5; 1.91; Paddy Power] - 1pt staked

Total Points [189-193]
Line Available [Over 185pts; 1.90; Expekt] - 1pt staked

LA Clippers @ New Orleans 92-114

Points Spread [NO by 8 - NO by 12]
Line Available [LA Clippers +16; 1.91; Stan James] - 1pt staked

Memphis @ Portland 113-91

Points Spread [level - POR by 5]
Line Available [Memphis +11.5; 1.87; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked

Sacramento @ LA Lakers 101-124

Points Spread [LA by 3 - LA by 9]
Line Available [Sacramento +17.5pts; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked

Total Points [209-217]
Line Available [Under 217.5pts; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked


Bank 100.53pts
Staked 9pts

Overall Record

Bets 20
Winners 8
Losers 11
Pushes 1
Strike Rate 42.11%
P/L -3.66pts
Staked 20pts
Yield -18.30%
Average Odds 1.91

Point Spread Record

Bets 12
Winners 5
Losers 6
Pushes 1
Strike Rate 45.45%
P/L -1.37pts
Staked 12pts
Yield -11.58%
Average Odds 1.91

Total Points Record

Bets 8
Winners 3
Losers 5
Strike Rate 37.50%
P/L -2.29pts
Staked 8pts
Yield -28.63%
Average Odds 1.91


New Bank 96.34pts

[Samba_SamPa]

Just looking at the Total Points bets, and the record is:

3/3 for 'Over' bets
0/5 for 'Under' bets

...coincidence I am sure

[Grex]

Don't worry, Samba..... as you say, you didn't have much luck, and it is still VERY early days. Regarding the anomoly on the Over/Under bets, you can't draw any positive conclusions with such a small sample..... how did they perform on your back-testing ?

[Samba_SamPa]

This IS my testing

I am going to back-test the current method, and a possible improvement (to see if it IS an improvement) back over the course of about the last 150 games, depending on my time constraints over the next couple of nights.

Findings will be reported

[Samba_SamPa]

A whole lot of games [14] tonight, so to save space I am just going to give the system bets, rather than write my spreads for each match as well.

There's 18 bets over the 14 games, but I am toying with a filter to add which would lessen the amount of bets per night, which, obviously, is needed. Just going to backtest for a couple of weeks, but that won't be til tomorrow night as I am busy tonight.

Here goes .....

Charlotte - Philadelphia

Under 202 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Pinnacle

Orlando - Washington

Under 204 pts - 1pt @ 1.92 Pinnacle

Cleveland - Detroit

No bets

Indiana - New York

Indiana (-6) - 1pt @ 1.94 canbet
Over 201 pts - 1pt @ 1.96 canbet [Other firms have lines ranging from 218.5-222.5, canbet are WAY out ]

Dallas - New Orleans

New Orleans (+8.5pts) - 1pt @ 1.96 canbet

Boston - New Jersey

Boston (-9.5) - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle

Miami - Atlanta

No bet

Minnesota - Milwaukee

Milwaukee (+7.5) - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle
Under 218.5 pts - 1pt @ 2.03 Pinnacle

Chicago - Toronto

Toronto (+6.5) - 1pt @ 1.94 Pinnacle
Under 211.5 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Bet365

Houston - LA Clippers

No bet

Denver - Memphis

Memphis (+15.5) - 1pt @ 1.94 canbet
Under 234 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Bet365

San Antonio - Utah

Utah (+4.5) - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle
Over 182.5 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Betfred

Phoenix - Portland

Portland (+11.5) - 1pt @ 1.91 Paddy Power
Under 211.5 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Bet365

Golden State - Seattle

Seattle (+12.5) - 1pt @ 1.83 Extrabet
Under 232 pts - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle


Bank 96.34pts
Staked 18pts

[Samba_SamPa]

A much better night with 12 winning bets from 18

Originally Posted by Samba_SamPa

Charlotte - Philadelphia 115-109

Under 202 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Pinnacle

Orlando - Washington 103-83

Under 204 pts - 1pt @ 1.92 Pinnacle

Indiana - New York 132-123

Indiana (-6) - 1pt @ 1.94 canbet
Over 201 pts - 1pt @ 1.96 canbet [Other firms have lines ranging from 218.5-222.5, canbet are WAY out ]

Dallas - New Orleans 111-98

New Orleans (+8.5pts) - 1pt @ 1.96 canbet

Boston - New Jersey 105-94

Boston (-9.5) - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle

Minnesota - Milwaukee 110-101

Milwaukee (+7.5) - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle
Under 218.5 pts - 1pt @ 2.03 Pinnacle

Chicago - Toronto 107-97

Toronto (+6.5) - 1pt @ 1.94 Pinnacle
Under 211.5 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Bet365

Denver - Memphis 120-111

Memphis (+15.5) - 1pt @ 1.94 canbet
Under 234 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Bet365

San Antonio - Utah 109-80

Utah (+4.5) - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle
Over 182.5 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Betfred

Phoenix - Portland 100-91

Portland (+11.5) - 1pt @ 1.91 Paddy Power
Under 211.5 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Bet365

Golden State - Seattle 121-126

Seattle (+12.5) - 1pt @ 1.83 Extrabet
Under 232 pts - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle


Bank 96.34pts
Staked 18pts

Overall Record

Bets 38
Winners 20
Losers 17
Pushes 1
Strike Rate 54.05%
P/L +1.46pts
Staked 38pts
Yield +3.84%
Average Odds 1.91

Point Spread Record

Bets 21
Winners 10
Losers 10
Pushes 1
Strike Rate 50%
P/L -0.80pts
Staked 21pts
Yield -4.00%
Average Odds 1.91

Total Points Record

Bets 17
Winners 10
Losers 7
Strike Rate 58.82%
P/L +2.26pts
Staked 17pts
Yield +13.29%
Average Odds 1.91


New Bank 101.46pts