Running Hot - Place System

[Hoprock]

I'm going to paper trial a system that I've come up with using the excellent Adrian Massey website. Sometimes I think it gets overlooked that there are a whole bunch of stats other than the daily ratings. The backbone of the system uses the trainer form for the previous 30 days.

Rules are as follows:
1 Races must be handicaps that pay at least 3 places on Betfair. ie 8 or more runners but the selection is still valid if there were 8 runners declared and there is a non runner since 3 places are still paid on Betfair.
2 Trainer must have a 40% and above strike rate of placed horses over the previous 30 days and a place ROI of 120% or higher. There must have been a minimum of 3 placed horses to qualify.
3 The horse must have been placed in the first 3 on its last run which must have been within the last 30 days.
4 The horse must be in the top half of Adrian Masseys ratings for the race.
5 The forecast price on the Sportinglife website is bigger than 2/1.


Point 2 helps to find in form trainers who are placing their horses well whilst still offering value. Points 3 and 4 help to find horses that have shown some sort of recent form and have the ability to be competitive in the selected race. Point 5 filters out any really short priced selections.

It probably sounds more complicated and fiddly than it is, but in truth it's only about 30 minutes a day using Excel to sort the columns as the filters are applied.

I've come up with rigid figures like 40% and above placed strike rate and 120% and higher placed ROI because I know how easy it is to 'back-fit' these kind of systems and I want to test it using a defined set of rules so that anyone applying the 5 rules above would arrive at exactly the same selections.

I'll test it using £10 level stakes on the Betfair place SP and deducting 5%. Since the Betfair place SP is not as readily available as the standard starting price, I'll provide updates using the standard SP to indicate how things are going and provide full updates using the Betfair place sp periodically (they are usually online a few days after the race).

So that's it...could be absolute nonsense but that's why I need to paper test it !

I'm expecting it to be quite selective by the way. Probably in the region of about 20 a week.

Todays selections to follow later...

[aldric]

Good luck, sounds interseting

[Hoprock]

thanks Aldric !

4 for today

W4.10 Strong Weld
A4.20 Little White Lie
W5.20 Konigsbote
H5.45 Wizard Looking

[Hoprock]

Results

W4.10 Strong Weld L
W5.20 Konigsbote 3rd 5/1
H5.45 Wizard Looking L

1 non runner and 1 from 3 on the others.
Another 3 qualifiers today....

A4.20 Bellomi
R5.10 Apache Nation
W5.50 The Willowy Wigeon

[Hoprock]

Results

A4.20 Bellomi
R5.10 Apache Nation
W5.50 The Willowy Wigeon 4th 5/1

There were no qualifiers yesterday but there are 3 today which are all A Balding trained.

N2.15 Oceana Blue
N4.00 Little Pete
A5.00 Pinch Of Salt

[Hoprock]

3 unplaced last time

2 for today

W4.20 Amicable Terms
W4.50 Laish Ya Hajar

[MetallicIan]

Both placed today Hoprock, well played

[Hoprock]

Originally Posted by MetallicIan

Both placed today Hoprock, well played

Many thanks mate

W4.20 Amicable Terms 1st 9/4
W4.50 Laish Ya Hajar 2nd 11/2

Friday

M4.25 Red Granite
M4.25 Another Jameson
D5.05 Flower
M5.25 Boss Imperial

[Hoprock]

Results

M4.25 Red Granite
M4.25 Another Jameson
D5.05 Flower 3rd 5/1
M5.25 Boss Imperial

Another 2 finished 4th yesterday

Only 1 for today

N5.00 Celtic Change