Rugby Quarb System

[2hcb]

Originally Posted by Wumpking

Blues bet wasn't matched.

lucky escape that!

[Wumpking]

Originally Posted by 2hcb

lucky escape that!

Indeed!

England beat Tonga 36 - 20

System update:

Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,045.50
Total Staked	£885.00
Number of Bets	18
Winning Bets	15
Losing Bets	3
Strike Rate	83.3%
Yield	5.1%
Profit / Loss	£45.50

[Wumpking]

Remainder of tomorrow's games assessed:

Match No.	Date	Tournament	Home Team	Best Odds	Av Odds	Av Odds +5%	Av Odds +7%	Selection
59	29/09/2007	RWC 2007	Australia	1.00	1.00	1.05	1.07	No Bet
60	29/09/2007	RWC 2007	Wales	1.10	1.07	1.12	1.14	Possible via Betfair
61	29/09/2007	RWC 2007	New Zealand	1.00	1.00	1.05	1.07	No Bet
63	29/09/2007	Guinness Prem	Bath	1.53	1.44	1.52	1.55	Bath
64	29/09/2007	Guinness Prem	Gloucester	1.12	1.08	1.13	1.15	Possible via Betfair
65	29/09/2007	Guinness Prem	Newcastle	1.90	1.70	1.79	1.82	No Bet

Only outright selection with the bookies is Bath - £43.00 @ 1.53 with William Hills.

Bath are currently unbeaten in 11 matches in all competitions at home. Sale haven't won away in the Guinness Premiership for nearly a year whilst have only won once in the last 9 attempts at the Rec. Both sides are currently 1 from 2 (winning their home matches and losing their aways) for the season.

No other bets via the bookies as no value prices available. Two potential selections via Betfair. As such, I've requested the following amounts/prices:

Gloucester - £49.00 @ 1.15
Wales - £49.00 @ 1.14

Gloucester are currently top of the Guinsess Premiership, winning both their away games with bonus points. They are unbeaten in 13 matches in all competitions at home. Worcester have drawn, lost one since the start of the season and have never beaten the hosts at Kingsholm.

Wales go into their must win game on Saturday having never lost to the Fijians, although it was touch and go the last time they played with the Welsh scraping a 11 - 10 win courtesy of a drop goal late on in the match. Planet Rugby's analysis concludes that Fiji will eventually run out of steam during the game and Wales will go on to win by 10 points. Based on the IRB ratings, Wales (76.83) should beat Fiji (73.07) at a neutral venue by around 8 points. Sporting Index have the Welsh supremacy over the Fijians pitched considerably higher at 18-21, whilst the average handicap mark on Wales is -19.5 points at 1.90.

Will update before kick offs to advise whether amounts/prices have been matched.

[Wumpking]

Wales bet matched in full.

Gloucester bet not yet matched.

[Wumpking]

Originally Posted by Wumpking

Wales bet matched in full.

No lucky escape this time as Fiji cause the biggest upset of RWC 2007 to date by beating Wales 38 - 34

Gloucester bet was not matched.

Outcomes of today's other system selections:

Bath beat Sale 21 - 19

Scotland beat Italy 18 - 16

System update:

Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,044.29
Total Staked	£1,027.00
Number of Bets	21
Winning Bets	17
Losing Bets	4
Strike Rate	81.0%
Yield	4.3%
Profit / Loss	£44.29

Despite the Wales loss, the system is still in the black and is showing a small profit so far of £7.20 for the weekend.

[Wumpking]

Assessment of tomorrow's matches:

Match No.	Date	Tournament	Home Team	Best Odds	Av Odds	Av Odds +5%	Av Odds +7%	Selection
66	30/09/2007	RWC 2007	South Africa	1.01	1.00	1.05	1.07	No Bet
67	30/09/2007	RWC 2007	France	1.00	1.00	1.05	1.07	No Bet
68	30/09/2007	RWC 2007	Argentina	1.72	1.62	1.70	1.73	No Bet
69	30/09/2007	Guinness Prem	Bristol	1.80	1.69	1.77	1.81	No Bet
70	30/09/2007	Guinness Prem	Leeds	4.00	3.50	3.68	3.75	No Bet
71	30/09/2007	Guinness Prem	Wasps	2.20	1.99	2.09	2.13	No Bet
72	30/09/2007	Magners League	Ospreys	1.25	1.19	1.25	1.28	Ospreys

Only selection tomorrow is with the bookies and is Ospreys - £41.00 @ 1.25 with BetChronicle.

The Ospreys have had a lousy start to the defence of their Magners League title losing 3 from 3. One of these losses was at home to the Scarlets (the system's first selection and also its first loss ), whilst the other 2 defeats were aways at the Blues and at Ulster. Glasgow started their campaign last week with an away loss to the Blues. They have poor record playing away against Welsh opposition having only won once away in 13 attempts since 2004/05. Based on the ELO ratings, the Ospreys should win by around 11 points. Sporting Index have the Ospreys supremacy over Glasgow pitched at 11-14, whilst the average handicap mark on them is -11.0 points at 1.90.

[Wumpking]

Ospreys win 37 - 23

System update:

Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,054.54
Total Staked	£1,068.00
Number of Bets	22
Winning Bets	18
Losing Bets	4
Strike Rate	81.8%
Yield	5.1%
Profit / Loss	£54.54

[Wumpking]

Ample prices available to assess the RWC quarter finals on the weekend:

Match No.	Date	Tournament	Home Team	Best Odds	Av Odds	Av Odds +5%	Av Odds +7%	Selection
80	06/10/2007	RWC 2007	Australia	1.25	1.19	1.25	1.27	Australia
81	06/10/2007	RWC 2007	New Zealand	1.20	1.16	1.22	1.24	Possible via Betfair
86	07/10/2007	RWC 2007	Argentina	1.20	1.15	1.21	1.23	Possible via Betfair
87	07/10/2007	RWC 2007	South Africa	1.03	1.02	1.07	1.09	No Bet

Only outright selection with the bookies is Australia - £46.00 @ 1.25 with Stan James -

A re-run of the RWC 2003 final between Australia and England, with the Wallabies no doubt out for revenge for that defeat. Australia have cruised through their group and have looked far more impressive than England to date. Australian injuries are a concern, however, particularly in the backs. Based on the IRB ratings, Australia (87.73) should beat England (80.10) at a neutral venue by around 15 points. Sporting Index have the Australian supremacy over the English pitched at 11-14, whilst the average handicap mark on the Wallabies is -12.0 points at 1.90.

No other bets via the bookies as no value prices available. Two potential selections via Betfair. As such, I've requested the following amounts/prices:

New Zealand - £45.00 @ 1.24
Argentina - £46.00 @ 1.23

I would be very suprised if either of these bets are matched. We live in hope. As usual, will monitor and update before kick offs.

[Wumpking]

Suprisingly, the Argentina bet has been matched in full. Bet therefore is Argentina - £46.00 @ 1.23 with Betfair -

Argentina have been one of the most impressive sides in the RWC, dispatching both France and Ireland (plus respective minnows) to top the 'Group of Death', with the added benefit of avoiding the All Backs the quarter finals. Scotland looked as good as they could (particularly their pack) against Romania and Portugal and even their B side did moderately well against a full strength New Zealand team. However, they only just scraped past Italy to qualify out of the group, especially as the Italians had a chance to potentially win the game in the dying minutes (narrowly failed with a penalty). Whilst the Scots have the kicker of the RWC in Paterson, it is unlikely he will get enough opportunities to win this game with the boot alone. I can't see them scoring the necessary tries either against a mean Puma's defense that has only conceeded twice in the last 4 games. Scotland have not beaten the Argentians since 1990, losing the last 5 matches played since then between the two. Based on the IRB ratings, Argentina (85.78) should beat Scotland (77.09) at a neutral venue by around 19 points. Sporting Index have the Puma's supremacy over the Scottish pitched at 12-15, whilst the average handicap mark on Argentina is -13.0 points at 1.90. Such is the importance of this game to Argentina, even the sacred Boca v River football fixture has been brought forward to avoid a timing clash. I'm reasonably confident the Puma's will win this comfortably, although I am reminded from my records that the path of my gambling life has often been strewn with cowpats from the devil's own satanic herd.

[Wumpking]

Prices now available for Friday's domestic action:

Match No.	Date	Tournament	Home Team	Best Odds	Av Odds	Av Odds +5%	Av Odds +7%	Selection
73	05/10/2007	Guinness Prem	London Irish	1.66	1.54	1.62	1.65	No Bet
74	05/10/2007	Guinness Prem	Newcastle	1.11	1.08	1.14	1.16	Possible via Betfair
75	05/10/2007	Guinness Prem	Sale	1.80	1.63	1.71	1.74	No Bet
76	05/10/2007	Magners League	Edinburgh	2.37	2.24	2.35	2.40	No Bet
77	05/10/2007	Magners League	Glasgow	1.50	1.39	1.45	1.48	Glasgow
78	05/10/2007	Magners League	Leinster	1.36	1.28	1.35	1.37	Leinster
79	05/10/2007	Magners League	Munster	1.61	1.44	1.51	1.54	Munster

A lot of action as three outright selections identified with the bookies.

The first selection is Glasgow - £63.00 @ 1.50 with Bet 365 -

Glasgow have lost their opening 2 games in the Magners League, although both of these have been away to Welsh opposition. Connacht won their opening home game against the Dragons, but then went on to lose last time out away against the Scarlets. Indeed, Connacht have not won away since Sept 2006 in Magners League and have failed to win in Glasgow over the past 3 seasons (although it was close last time). Based on the ELO ratings, Glasgow should win by around 11 points. Sporting Index have the Glasgow supremacy over Connacht pitched rather low I think at 3-6, whilst the average handicap mark on them is -7.0 points at 1.90.

The second selection is Leinster - £51.00 @ 1.36 with Blue Square -

Leinster have won 2 from 2 so far in the Magners League, including an impressive away win over the Cardiff Blues last time out (at the same time ending a 17 match home winning streak for the Blues in the Magners League stretching back to Jan 2006). Leinster have a fantastic home record in the Magners League, having lost only 2 matches at home since Sept 2004 with their last loss at home in the league occuring in Nov 2005. The Scarlets have had a mixed start to their campaign, winning 2 of their opening 4 games. Although one of these wins was away to a lacklustre Ospreys side, their overall away record in the Magners League is not great and they have failed to win in Leinster over the past 3 seasons. Based on the ELO ratings, Leinster should win by around 8 points. Sporting Index have the Leinster supremacy over the Scarlets pitched at 8-11, whilst the average handicap mark on them is -8.5 points at 1.90.

The last selection is Munster - £87.00 @ 1.61 with Sky Bet -

The biggest bet of the system so far as Sky Bet have priced Munster at an incredible 1.61 or some 12% above the bookies mean price. I can't see this price lasting as it is well above the standard line taken. Munster are 2 for 2 for the season todate, although they were relatively lucky last week as the Dragons threw away a 16-0 lead to eventually gift them the match. Munster do not lose very often at home, having only been beaten 4 times since Sept 2004. Although worryingly for the selection the Blues are one of the few sides to have beaten them away, winning there last season by 19-12. The Blues have won 3 out of 4 in the Magners League this season, although they did lose at home against Leinster last week. Based on the ELO ratings, Munster should win by around 5 points. Sporting Index have Munster's supremacy over the Blues pitched at 4-7, whilst the average handicap mark on them is -6.0 points at 1.90. For me, this match would be one to watch a la Dr Who style i.e. from behind the sofa with clenched buttocks. As it is not live on the telly, it'll be one I'll follow with a tightened sphincter via the internet.

No other bets via the bookies as no value prices available. One potential selection via Betfair. As such, I've requested the following amount/price:

Newcastle - £49.00 @ 1.16

As usual, will monitor potential selection and update before kick off.

[2hcb]

Starting to get serious here now, best of luck! Cardiffwould have to be the biggest danger here with the way they've started the season. I'll be behind the Munstermen also due to the season outright bet.

[Wumpking]

Cheers 2hcb for the good wishes. I've currently got nearly 28% of the entire bank out in bets so you're right about it getting a bit serious. A few bad results here would certainly set the system back a notch or two.

Whilst I generally cheer on all the Welsh sides when playing Irish or Scottish opponents in the Magners League, I really hope the Blues don't win tomorrow.

I still can't believe the price that was offered on Munster. Best price has literally just dropped to 1.57 which is still great value (I don't think that this price will be there much longer either).

[Wumpking]

Originally Posted by Wumpking

A few bad results here would certainly set the system back a notch or two

Me and my big mouth.

Munster lost 17 - 19

Leinster lost 23 - 52

Glasgow just about managed to win 16 - 15 (with a penalty in the 80th minute!)

Newcastle bet was not matched (they won)

System update:

Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£948.04
Total Staked	£1,269.00
Number of Bets	25
Winning Bets	19
Losing Bets	6
Strike Rate	76.0%
Yield	-4.1%
Profit / Loss	-£51.96

Back in the red!

[Wumpking]

Assessment of the remainder of the weekend's games as follows:

Match No.	Date	Tournament	Home Team	Best Odds	Av Odds	Av Odds +5%	Av Odds +7%	Selection
82	06/10/2007	Guinness Prem	Harlequins	1.54	1.47	1.54	1.57	Harlequins
83	06/10/2007	Guinness Prem	Leicester	1.86	1.75	1.83	1.87	No Bet
84	06/10/2007	Guinness Prem	Worcester	2.42	2.31	2.43	2.47	No Bet
85	06/10/2007	Magners League	Dragons	1.57	1.49