Rugby Quarb System

[Cymro]

Just found this Wumpking, looks very interesting and best of luck for the season

Hopefully you'll be showing a nice profit after this weekend's games. Will definitely keep an eye on this when betting on the Magners League.

[Wumpking]

Originally Posted by Cymro

Just found this Wumpking, looks very interesting and best of luck for the season

Hopefully you'll be showing a nice profit after this weekend's games. Will definitely keep an eye on this when betting on the Magners League.

Cheers Cymro, thanks for the good wishes they are much appreciated. It was a good weekend as all 7 selections won! Just for the record:

London Irish beat Newcastle 19 -0

Sale beat Bristol 20 - 6

System update:

Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,084.53
Total Staked	£578.00
Number of Bets	13
Winning Bets	11
Losing Bets	2
Strike Rate	84.6%
Yield	14.6%
Profit / Loss	£84.53

Back in the Black

[Wumpking]

Assessment of tomorrow's matches:

Match No.	Date	Tournament	Home Team	Best Odds	Av Odds	Av Odds +5%	Av Odds +7%	Selection
50	25/09/2007	RWC 2007	Canada	1.29	1.19	1.25	1.27	Canada
51	25/09/2007	RWC 2007	Romania	1.12	1.08	1.13	1.15	Possible via Betfair

First selection is Canada - £79.00 @ 1.29 with Stan James - .

I'll be honest and admit that I am slightly worried about this selection/bet. The high stake due to Stan James' price being 9% above the bookies mean is causing some of this concern. In the 4 games Canada has played against Japan since 2000, both sides have won 2 a piece, although 3 out of the 4 were played in Japan. Planet Rugby's analysis of the match concludes that this game could go either way, but they do plump for a narrow Canuck win. Based on the IRB ratings, Canada (67.50) should beat Japan (64.79) at a neutral venue by 6 points, so again further evidences that this should be close. On the positive side, Sporting Index (always a good guide) have the Canuck supremacy over the Cherry Blossoms pitched as 12-15, whilst the average handicap mark is -13.5 points at 1.90. At the end of the day, however, what the system selects, I bets!

Second selection is Romania - £50.00 @ 1.15 with Betfair - .

Whilst I was able to get £50.00 fully matched on Betfair which is the minimum price required (taking into account commission), I am also a little apprehensive about this selection/bet. Romania have played Portugal 7 times since 2000, winning 6 out of the 7. However, Portugal have shown considerable attacking flair in their last 3 matches, resulting in tries being scored against Scotland, Italy and even New Zealand! They are the people's favourites for tomorrow's match, although not the bookies, and are looking for a historic RWC win to end their tournament. Planet Rugby's analysis of the match concludes that this will be a tricky game to call, but they go for a Portuguese win by 8. Based on the IRB ratings, however, Romania (66.51) should beat Portugal (62.03) at a neutral venue by 10 points. Sporting Index have the Oak's supremacy over Os Lobos pitched at 20-23, whilst the average handicap mark is -19.0 points at 1.90 which is some reassurance.

[Wumpking]

My worries were proved correct as Canada drew against Japan 12 - 12 . I got in from work right at the end of the game and thought the bet was won when the Cannucks kicked the ball dead with 80 mins up on the clock. The ref allowed the line out however, and after several agonising minutes, sod's law dictated that Japan scored and kicked a tricky conversion to level the game and lose the bet.

For me, this selection / outcome raises an interesting question. I was uneasy backing Canada but chose too as they were a system pick. At what point however, should a follower of a system over ride the system's selection? Would be interested in other forumites opinions on this (if anybody else is reading).

Romania just about scraped home against Portugal to win 14 - 10

System update:

Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,012.65
Total Staked	£707.00
Number of Bets	15
Winning Bets	12
Losing Bets	3
Strike Rate	80.0%
Yield	1.8%
Profit / Loss	£12.65

[Wumpking]

Assessment of tomorrow's matches:

Match No.	Date	Tournament	Home Team	Best Odds	Av Odds	Av Odds +5%	Av Odds +7%	Selection
52	26/09/2007	RWC 2007	Samoa	1.16	1.09	1.15	1.17	Samoa
53	26/09/2007	RWC 2007	Georgia	1.25	1.17	1.23	1.25	Georgia

First selection is Samoa - £59.00 @ 1.16 with BetChronicle -

Another uneasy selection! Samoa have probably been the biggest disappointment of the RWC and have lost 3 out of 3 so far (including a galling defeat against Tonga). This will be their last chance to record a win in the tournament by beating the USA. The Pacific Islanders have never played the Eagles before, so no past form to go on. Planet Rugby's analysis highlights the Samoan's injury problems and concludes that the USA will win by 10 points. Based on the IRB ratings, however, Samoa (70.66) should beat the USA (65.26) at a neutral venue by around 12 points. Furthermore, Sporting Index have the Pacific Islanders' supremacy over the Eagles pitched at 13-16, whilst the average handicap mark on Samoa is -17.0 points at 1.90.

Second selection is Georgia - £60.00 @ 1.25 with Stan James -

Slightly less worries for me in with this selection as Georgia take on Namibi. Both sides are seeking to make their own bit rugby history by recording their first win in a RWC. Namibia come into the match after a comprehensive beating at the hands of Argentina some 4 days ago, although they did rest some of their key players for this game. Georgia are well rested having only narrowly lost to Ireland some 10 days ago. Planet Rugby's analysis suggests this will be a tough one to call but conclude that Georgia will win by 10 points. Based on the IRB ratings, Georgia (66.38) should beat Namibia (57.15) at a neutral venue by around 20 points. Sporting Index have the Lelos' supremacy over the Namibians pitched slightly lower at 11-14, whilst the average handicap mark on Georgia is -13.5 points at 1.90.

[Wumpking]

Enough prices available to assess Friday's match between England and Tonga:

Match No.	Date	Tournament	Home Team	Best Odds	Av Odds	Av Odds +5%	Av Odds +7%	Selection
54	28/09/2007	RWC 2007	England	1.10	1.07	1.12	1.14	England

Current price on Betfair for England is 1.15 which is slightly above the minimum price required (taking into account commission). Therefore, bet is England - £59.00 @ 1.15 with Betfair -

I'd be extremely suprised if England failed to win this. In their only meeting todate (at RWC 1999), England beat Tonga 101 - 10. Whilst Tonga have improved since then and England have declined, the gulf in class between these two sides should really be too much for the Tongans to overcome. Indeed, based on the IRB ratings, England (79.05) should beat Tonga (72.56) at a neutral venue by around 14 points. The bookies predict it will be more, as the average handicap mark on England is -21.0 points at 1.90.

[Pie-chucker]

Hmmm, maybe the Samoa game is where instinct might override the system. 1.16 looks incredibly skinny to me on a team that have had two very recent hard game losses and look a bit mentally/physically shot. Plus injuries. USA haven't played for yonks and are as fresh as daisies.

However, good on yer for 'trusting the system'.

[Wumpking]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

Hmmm, maybe the Samoa game is where instinct might override the system. 1.16 looks incredibly skinny to me on a team that have had two very recent hard game losses and look a bit mentally/physically shot. Plus injuries. USA haven't played for yonks and are as fresh as daisies.

However, good on yer for 'trusting the system'.

Cheers Pie-chucker for the input. This bet is a worry for me as outlined. I'm determined however, to stick to the system selections (at least until the bank is wiped out ).

[2hcb]

For me, this selection / outcome raises an interesting question. I was uneasy backing Canada but chose too as they were a system pick. At what point however, should a follower of a system over ride the system's selection? Would be interested in other forumites opinions on this (if anybody else is reading).

I'd say you have to go with the system. Personally I have never used any system for betting but if you've found one that means you have to bet every time it registers value then I think you have to take it otherwise you're not using a system atall you're just making picks and you're limiting your picks to a small catchment area.

just read that back and it makes little sense, sorry! In short I think you should trust your system - you can always turn round and blame a useless system rather than yourself if you lose but if the pick wins and you weren't on it then it's nobody's fault but yours!

[F.]

Originally Posted by Wumpking

For me, this selection / outcome raises an interesting question. I was uneasy backing Canada but chose too as they were a system pick. At what point however, should a follower of a system over ride the system's selection? Would be interested in other forumites opinions on this (if anybody else is reading).

IMO the answer to this question should take into account other factors. First of all, what is your idea of a system? If it is a number cruncher that you should follow religiously, or is it a "value detector" that just points you in the direction of potential value bets?

By design your system only picks selection with low odds, therefore one loss can wipe away five or six wins. Or look at it this way: if you don't bet when your instinct tells you not to, you would face a 'not earned profit' situation when 6 out of 7 no bet matches were winners. Since you seem to be a guy that knows his rugby very well , do you think this is a likely scenario or not?

In the specific case of that match you lost I think you overlooked the fundamental of a system: value. Whatever the stats said you detected that the odds offered weren't good enough for such a tight game. Therefore it was a bet with no value and IMHO you should've followed yoiur gut.


F.

P.S.: sorry if my English was crap today, it is one of those days when neurons refuse to connect to each other...

[2hcb]

System was right

[Matthew]

Well done Wumpking.................

I like the way you write up and reflect on your bets.

Good Work - Good Profit - Good Yield(%)!!!!


Did your back testing involve any international fixtures on neutral grounds?

[Wumpking]

Cheers 2hcb and F. for the input. You both raise good points. At the moment, the system is a 'number cruncher' that detects in theory value bets that I religiously follow. It is certainly possible however, that it could be 'fine tuned' even further by additional analysis. What criteria should be used for this however, is debatable. My main worry is if I start to tinker, I will miss winning bets as I do think this is likely. Psychologically speaking, I'm concerned that if this were to happen I may revert to bad 'tilt like' habits ! Food for thought . . .

On to tonight's outcomes.

Georgia beat Namibia 30 - 0

Samoa hang on to beat USA 25 - 21

The system was indeed right 2hcb!

System update:

Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,037.09
Total Staked	£826.00
Number of Bets	17
Winning Bets	14
Losing Bets	3
Strike Rate	82.4%
Yield	4.5%
Profit / Loss	£37.09

[2hcb]

essentially you're picking home (excluding RWC) favourites who should really win their matches baring a poor performance. Normally the odds dictate that you can't beat individual bookies like that, but by betting only on the prices which your system picks out as extra value you hopefully will get some profit long term

However, by just opposing the teams you felt unsure about on the cap you'd be way up already

[Wumpking]

Originally Posted by Matthew

Well done Wumpking.................

I like the way you write up and reflect on your bets.

Good Work - Good Profit - Good Yield(%)!!!!


Did your back testing involve any international fixtures on neutral grounds?

Thanks Matthew for the kind comments.

You raise a good point. I was originally not going to include any neutral venue based matches as rugby games generally have a strong home bias (generally considered to be 6 - 7 points for the home side), which helps the system archieve a high strike rate. However, the RWC was too good an opportunity to miss, particularly due to my passion for the game.

I did review the results for RWC 2003. Whilst I didn't have access to the required bookie odds to fully back test, I know that the vast majority of games were won by the favourite as it was 'very well behaved' in terms of outcomes as there were only 2 or 3 upsets in the whole tournament. I'm sure that the quarb approach would therefore have applied.

It will be interesting to review the whole of this RWC at the end of the tournament to see if it was profitable to include!

[Wumpking]

Originally Posted by 2hcb

However, by just opposing the teams you felt unsure about on the cap you'd be way up already

Another good point - although I feel unsure (albeit some more than others) about them all

[Wumpking]

A few prices starting to appear for the 19 matches over the weekend. Not enough as yet to assess many of the games. However, one with enough prices available that takes the eye is:

Match No.	Date	Tournament	Home Team	Best Odds	Av Odds	Av Odds +5%	Av Odds +7%	Selection
62	29/09/2007	RWC 2007	Scotland	1.50	1.41	1.48	1.50	Scotland

Selection therefore is Scotland - £50.00 @ 1.50 with Ladbrokes -

If you'd asked me before the RWC about the outcome of this game, I'd have plumped for an Italian win. Indeed, I'd posted on the RWC thread way before the tournie started that Italy would beat Scotland and finish runners up in this group. However, the Italians have had a really poor RWC with an absolute thrashing at the hands of the All Blacks followed by unconvincing wins over Romania and Portugal. Scotland, by comparison, have looked as good as they could (particularly their pack) against Romania and Portugal and even their B side did moderately well against a full strength New Zealand team. Scotland have named an injury free, strong side for this game and in Paterson, have one of the best kickers of the tournament 'dodgey' RWC balls. This will hopefully keep the scoreboard ticking over for them as I am sure the Scottish pack will put the Italians under enough pressure to concede vital penalties. Italy's team selection is less strong than they would have liked having lost one or two players and their captain to injury. Based on the IRB ratings, Italy (75.65) should beat Scotland (74.95) at a neutral venue by around 1 point. The sides know each other well having played 9 times against each other since 2000, with Scotland slightly ahead through winning 5 out of the 9. Six minutes of Scottish madness in their last match cost them the game as they gifted Italy 3 tries from which they never recovered. 1.50 is a skinny price for potentially such a close game. However, the price is one that is 7% above the mean and likely to drop before the match. Indeed, its not often that you find that Ladbrokes are offering the stand out price at anything ! Am I uneasy about this selection / bet? Yes, but this is a yes with an if!

[Wumpking]

On to tonight's Magner League matches:

Match No.	Date	Tournament	Home Team	Best Odds	Av Odds	Av Odds +5%	Av Odds +7%	Selection
55	28/09/2007	Magners League	Cardiff Blues	1.40	1.37	1.44	1.46	Possible via Betfair
56	28/09/2007