Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

[Fast Eddie]

Good luck with that mate.

 
     
 
Total Matches
 
12
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Goals
 
25
 
2.08
 
per game
 
 
 
 
 
Total Pred'   Goals
 
21
 
1.75
 
per game
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Correct   Score Pred %
 
33.3%
 
4
 
from
 
12
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Overall 1X2   Prediction %
 
58.3%
 
7
 
from
 
12
 
 
 
Home   Prediction %
 
80.0%
 
4
 
from
 
5
 
 
 
Draw   Prediction %
 
50.0%
 
2
 
from
 
4
 
 
 
Away   Prediction %
 
33.3%
 
1
 
from
 
3
 
 
 
O/U 2.5   Prediction %
 
58.3%
 
7
 
from
 
12
 
 
 
Over 2.5   Prediction %
 
50.0%
 
1
 
from
 
2
 
 
 
Under 2.5   Prediction %
 
60.0%
 
6
 
from
 
10
 
 

Ok, I've tried a crude copy and paste from excel into here and wrapped the code tags around. These are from the first week of Championship games, obviously be much better the more games go by.
Ed

[ato]

Ok guys, I´ve downloaded the sheets but haven´t really understanded how to use them. I get the basic idea that you check who has a high probability to win 2-0 or 3-0 and then you bet on them, right? Could someone please make a short checklist on how you use the sheets? Do I need anything more than the sheets?

[clarky101]

ato, the sheets are very easy to use, have a play, enter results,look at the predictions & have fun...

[Fast Eddie]

ato, there was a post in one of these Michael Wray discussion threads telling you what to do, but that's a lot of pages to trawl through, someone might know which post it was.

edit: I've found it in one minute! yeh! it's in this thred page 12, post 222, Merlin the main man tells you what to do.

[clarky101]

This weeks picks are
NORMS - Bournemouth @ 3.25
Wycombe @ 2.25

+2's - Liverpool @ 1.75

Paper trailing only....

[ato]

Oh very nice welcoming here!

Thanks FE for the specific post. I´ll read it through and come back if I have further questions.

Edit: How do you guys think the result has been with this system so far? Do you make any money?

[merlin]

Welcome Ado and Fast Eddie, hope you like the thread and can contribute in some way.Good luck and any problems just give a shout.Cheers. Merlin.

[Otter4]

Congrat's guys - I've really enjoyed reading your archived pages! Some really thought provoking stuff. I'm looking forward to following the 3-0 system closely over the forthcoming season.

2 questions - Merlin, do you just select home victories? And only 3- 0, do you disregard 4-1 or 5-2 predictions?

Happy gambling for the new season fella's!!!

[merlin]

Welcome aboard Otter4. No, we don't just pick home teams.Any teams with a predicted scoreline of a three goal difference or more i.e 4-1 etc, then that team is selected.There is a thread near the end of the season giving the last three seasons performances using this method and all seasons have been profitable.Happy hunting.Cheers. Merlin.

[ato]

Merlin, I haven´t found out how to PM someone so do you have email?

[deets]

Help ! I've downloaded these sheets in previous seasons always with good intentions but have really never tried to use to our advantage. I,ve tried to download this seasons championship and conference sheets and keep getting "file error:some data might be lost". I have excel 2000. Anyone else have the same problem ! Thanks in anticipation

[merlin]

Ato, I think you have to have so many postings before you are allowed to PM anyone. If you need to send me an e-mail you can get me at derek.g9@gmail.com.

Deets I have Excel 2000 and have no bother with the downloads. Suggest you erase all and try again.Just click on the file you want to download, should bring up a save box, save it to whatever, then unzip to the folder of your choice.Should be no problem whatsoever.If it persists drop me an e-mail on the above address.Cheers.#

[Fast Eddie]

Here's what MW sheets throw up this week in the top four leagues, just for fun at the mo, no money, co I'm waiting for six games in before the form starts to take shape.
Div 2 : Morecambe to beat Rotherham (predicted 4-1) 2.48
Div 1 : Oldham to win Away to Leeds (predicted 0-4!) 6.4
Championship : Coventry to win away at Barnsley (0-4!) 2.90
Premiership : Man Utd to beat Newcastle (4-0) 1.33

Don't know where the Oldham away at Leeds prediction has come about so I'll check that. all the best
Ed

Edit : OOps, I should've mentioned they were for the 3-0 or better predictions.

[Fred0912]

Hi Guys!
thank you for sharing all this great info!
I already downloaded the sheets but my prediction has Coventry only to win 3-0...???
And Oldham to beat Leed 3-1 and not 4-0???

I am confused now... :-)

EDIT: Nevermind!! I forgot to write in previous result from last round! Sry for my confusing post :-)

[merlin]

You have to keep the sheets updated Fred as you no doubt have found out.Otherwise the wrong predictions and scores will be obtained.Also make sure that any matches rearranged have the correct date applied when you update.

[lorenzo.]

But in League Two there has are minus points for 3 teams but in the SpreadSheets only Luton has -30. And I somehow can't change that also.

[Fred0912]

thanks Merlin!! I'll remember that.

Leeds behind 0-2... Sick!!!! :-)

[Otter4]

Lorenzo - i already spotted that one and e-miled the great man about it ....

"You can enter the new points deductions directly. There is a button on the
Enter Result tab for deductions.

Deductions themselves do not influence the predicted results - though of
course they are incorporated into the predicted standings.

The prediction engine uses a weighting of current form and past results,
with a distribution smoothing algorithm that uses a weighting of current
season and past season distributions. At the start of the season, there is
no current form so predictions move around quite a bit during the first
month as results are entered. After that, it settles down and performs
reasonably well for a mathmatical extrapolation.

Cheers,
Michael.


Hope this helps

[Otter4]

i raised my eyebrows about the leeds v oldham prediction as well - still early days

interesting scores at the moment!

[Fast Eddie]

Also important as the weeks go by and results build up is to check the league table matches the actual league table standings to make sure that everything is balanced and correct, I normally just run down the points from top to bottom and the goal difference too, so any missed games or wrongly entered results become easily apparent. I use the bbc results pages http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/results/6510393.stm