Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

[happygooner]

Good luck with this again for the coming year people

[clarky101]

Nice one fellas, lets hope Merlin joins us soon

[merlin]

Hi there everyone, yep, its true I'm still around.Michael Wray has not yet presented his sheets on his web site for the new season so we are very much in his hands. I'll drop him an e-mail and see how they are going.Meanwhile its not worth tinkering until around week 7 or so to allow for some form to accrue.Will be back shortly.

[merlin]

Just had an e-mail back from Michael and all sheets for 2008-9 are now ready for download.These can be obtained free of charge as usual from his web site:-

www.michaelwray.co.nz/sheets.html

and are very user friendly.

Hope to see you here soon. Thanks. Merlin.

[lorenzo.]

Hi!

I have a few questions about that betting system. First of all, how do these 2:0 and 3:0 and 2's systems work? Or is it your own recept you don't want to share ?

And the second question is about that Excel sheet. If the season hasn't begun and there are no results, how come the program is predicting the first week?

Thanks in advance.

[merlin]

Hi Lorenzo. The method we use here has been well documented right throuhout this thread and can be absorbed in previous page contents.However in a nutshell, the systems 2-0 and 3-0 were borne out of experimentation in previous seasons and have shown steady results for around three seasons now. Very simple rules and nothing very hard to follow. Simply take the teams that are predicted to win 2-0 which Clarky now monitors, and the teams predicted to win 3-0 which I monitor, and back them as straight level stake wins each week.Not as correct scores, but as teams to WIN their respective matches in the predicted games.As for predictions this week, I should imagine that this is based mainly on last seasons form and tables,but we never start to monitor and predict wins until at least half a dozen games have passed to allow for teams settling down in their respective divisions.A lot can be learned if you read through the previous pages.

[lorenzo.]

Ok, I will read the whole thread eventually I guess. Thank you very much for answering and I will follow this thread from now on and try to predict and bet myself.

[merlin]

No problem there young fella, and hope you can contribute here in future weeks.Be lucky.

[barrhead73]

OK chaps, here's my first selections for my EPL Unders System which i introduced last season.

Basically i select the games which MW has picked as DRAWS in the EPL and i back them to be Under 2.5 Goals. This is based on my thoughts that Draw selections will be tight affairs with few goals.

Saturday 9th August

Bolton v Stoke @ 1.65
Middlesborough v Tottenham @ 1.95

Stake = £1 per game

Good luck Merlin and Clarky.

[merlin]

I forgot you were still around also barrhead. I like to get a half dozen games or so under the belt first prior to thinking about any predictions. Anyway good luck for the season, and hope they come up trumps.Cheers.
Merlin.

[lorenzo.]

Ok, I read a lot of these spreadsheets, but I have still one question. As I can understand you are betting always 10£, but has anybody tried to bet some % of the current bank or something? You know, like you start with 100£ and bet 7% (7£)this weekend, and let's say you win 25 and next week your bank is 125 and now you bet 8,75£ coz it is 7% from 125.

..or something like that

Just asking if anyone has done it already, because I think I'm gonna try it.

[merlin]

Hi Lorenzo, and welcome back, good to see that you have absorbed some of the contents of the threads.The method suggested is just a guide and need not be ridgidly adhered to each and every week.It is also a good guide to see the performance using level stakes and a £10 unit.Feel free to do some experimentation, the percentage progressive method should be Ok to use with such a good strike rate particularly in the 3-0 system.Keep us informed should you decide to use this, always interested to find another angle or method.Cheers.Merlin.

[lorenzo.]

Cheers, mate. Yeah, I will test it and put my picks in this topic, too. I think I will also wait 4-5 games before I will start using these spreadsheets.

[clarky101]

Watford 3.75
Rochdale 2.65

Should of layed the Homes

Right, has anyone else got a problem with the Conference & Championship sheets on the prediction bit where the date can be changed, as when i change the dates on mine it automatically changes back to the original dates , Clarky

[merlin]

Does not seem to be a problem with my sheets, they appear to work OK, Iv'e just changed the date and then changed it back again, and worked both times.You are definitely using the Result tab?

[clarky101]

No merlin,on the prediction bit where you get up next weeks matches....

[tafflizgreg]

have jut come across these excellent spreadsheets,do the 2-0,3-0,just apply to home teams with that scoreline or all matches where prediction is as earlier.
i have been doing my own power ratings for a few seasons now.but within these spreadsheets i am able to do this on these ,has any one also used a similiar system based on last 6 matches

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by tafflizgreg

have jut come across these excellent spreadsheets,do the 2-0,3-0,just apply to home teams with that scoreline or all matches where prediction is as earlier.
i have been doing my own power ratings for a few seasons now.but within these spreadsheets i am able to do this on these ,has any one also used a similiar system based on last 6 matches

Home and Away.

[Fast Eddie]

Excellent, good to see this coming back for this season. I've downloaded the sheets for the top four English divisions. At the end of last season I started trying to put together a spreadsheet to analyse the MW sheets predictions as sadly there's nothing within the sheets themselves which stores a record of past predictions and how they compare to the actual results. My effort isn't very sophisticated as I'm a bit of a newbie to speadsheets and formulas, etc but I hope it might prove interesting. I think for the moment I'll be going with Merlin's 3-0 system. How many of you have been paper trailing your different systems from the MW sheets and how many using real reddies, if it's not too impertinent a question?

edit: how do I post part of a spreadsheet like you guys do with the table, is there an explanation on this sit or somewhere on the net I can follow? I'll have a look now to see if I can figure it out.

[clarky101]

Alright FE, my aways (norms & +2's) showed a profit last season, but i only started in December & tweaked the RFO's ratings into this in March. I'm paper trailing until the start of September & then it's the real thing...