Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

[happygooner]

0-0 predictions

Dagenham & R. v Stockport - Under 2.5 @ 1.82

4 goal predictions

Fulham v Aston V - Over 2.5 @ 2.18
Tottenham v Man U - Over 2.5 @ 1.73
Coventry v Barnsley - Over 2.5 @ 2.14
Stoke v Cardiff - Over 2.5 @ 2.06
Brighton v Crewe - Over 2.5 @ 2.08
Barnet v Morecambe - Over 2.5 @ 2.18
Chesterfield v Chester - Over 2.5 @ 1.95

5 goal predictions

West Brom v Burnley - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
Bournemouth v Nottm Forest - Over 2.5 @ 1.99
L Orient v Southend - Over 2.5 @ 2.06

6 goal predictions

Hartlepool v Luton - Over 2.5 @ 2.00


going over 2.5 on the 3-0 system

Inter Milan v Empoli - Over 2.5 @ 1.75
Juventus v Cagliari - Over 2.5 @ 1.75
W. Bremen v Bochum - Over 2.5 @ 1.52

[merlin]

.... just as a matter of interest Richard, there have been only 39 selections out of 102 total where the results have finished over 2.5 which = 38.2%, so not much of a pointer there.

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by happygooner

0-0 predictions

Dagenham & R. v Stockport - Under 2.5 @ 1.82 0-1+0.82

4 goal predictions

Fulham v Aston V - Over 2.5 @ 2.18
Tottenham v Man U - Over 2.5 @ 1.73 1-1-1.00
Coventry v Barnsley - Over 2.5 @ 2.14 4-0+1.14
Stoke v Cardiff - Over 2.5 @ 2.06 2-1+1.06
Brighton v Crewe - Over 2.5 @ 2.08 3-0+1.08
Barnet v Morecambe - Over 2.5 @ 2.18 0-1-1.00
Chesterfield v Chester - Over 2.5 @ 1.95 1-1-1.00

5 goal predictions

West Brom v Burnley - Over 2.5 @ 1.78 2-1+0.78
Bournemouth v Nottm Forest - Over 2.5 @ 1.99 2-0-1.00
L Orient v Southend - Over 2.5 @ 2.06 2-2+1.06

6 goal predictions

Hartlepool v Luton - Over 2.5 @ 2.00 4-0+1.00


going over 2.5 on the 3-0 system

Inter Milan v Empoli - Over 2.5 @ 1.75
Juventus v Cagliari - Over 2.5 @ 1.75
W. Bremen v Bochum - Over 2.5 @ 1.52

4 goal predictions improve but still bringing up the rear. Others go 4-1.

Still a few 4 goal predictions to go tomor as well as the all important 3-0 system.

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by merlin

.... just as a matter of interest Richard, there have been only 39 selections out of 102 total where the results have finished over 2.5 which = 38.2%, so not much of a pointer there.

For which dates? Sorry, it is late so maybe i'm missing something haha!

[clarky101]

+2's
Arsenal @ 1.92
Aston Villa (Sun) @ 2.32
Brentford @ 2.72

Normals
Middlesboro (Sun) @ 4.40
West Ham @ 2.72
Chelsea @ 1.77
Everton @ 3.25
Wolves @ 3.35
Charlton @ 2.18
Sheff Utd @ 2.86
Doncaster @ 2.60
Darlington @ 2.10
Grimbsy @ 3.00
MK Dons @ 2.04
Wycombe @ 2.44

So the standings for the +2's are

Total Staked		195.00
Total Returned		192.81
Yield		0.989	-1.12%
Winners		16
Losers		23
Strike Rate		41%
Current Bank		97.81
Profit / Loss		-2.19

& the normal aways

Total Staked		585.00
Total Returned		646.03
Yield		1.104	10.43%
Winners		48
Losers		69
Strike Rate		41%
Current Bank		161.03
Profit / Loss		61.03

A couple for the normal aways on tuesday
Lincoln @ 3.15
Barnet @4.6

& one for the +2's
Stockport @ 2.4

[merlin]

.... since I started recording the 3-0's for this current season Richard.
I left a couple of weeks or so at the start of the season to allow for form settling down.

[Grex]

Good to see you´re still getting positive results.... "onwards and upwards" as Merlin says.

Originally Posted by Grex

I have to admit that I did have my trusty lap-top with me on vacation and was playing around with figures (me, addicted?... never!). I tried producing probability equations for 1X2 results based on MW predictions, and then go on to identify "value" odds. The results were reasonably positive. However, I also compared these results with those obtained from a probability system based on Paul Ross´ ratings (365stats.com) and, I have to say, the results were significantly better and, what is perhaps more important, they were more "robust". There are several threads based on PR´s ratings, and all show a positive return.

I have been paper trialing the system for a few weeks now and will probably "go public" on this forum soon (I am loath to do this because, in accordance with Sod´s Law, the results will nose-dive ).

I finally took the plunge today with the system based on Paul Ross´Ratings. If anyone´s interested, the thread is "Yet another Paul Ross Ratings System".... rather unimaginative, I know (sorry I´m not sophisticated enough to put in an automatic link )

[merlin]

..... good to see you back Grex, I'll take a look at the thread, and good luck with this.

[barrhead73]

Another bad weekend for the DRAWS with 2 out of 16 selections.

Update

Wins	136
Losses	312
No of Bets	448
Strike Rate	30.4%
Staked	482
Returned	481.83
Yield	0.0%

Well i think this trial has reached its conclusion. The early good fortune which Grex found has been cancelled out over the last two months and i feel it would be pointless carrying on with this test as the results are not consistent.

[Grex]

Thanks, Barrhead, for persevering with the DRAWS....... and I completely understand your reluctance to continue. When I was posting the X-picks, the return was incredible, even after 100+ bets.... but despite the fact that statistical principles suggest that, with such a large number of bets, there was a very high probability that you had a "winning" system, it failed .

To be honest draws are, and always will be, a lottery..... obviously the initial performance was simply a good old-fashioned flash-in-the-pan.

Good luck to all the other MW systems - long may they show a profit

[Bruce The Brew Goose]

A (hopefully) welcome return of the odds on lays this evening, after a no bet weekend.

Rochdale laid at 1.92 v. Barnet (Predicted 0-1)

[merlin]

..... I have to report a poor weekend for the 3-0 system.Only 1 correct from three.Selections were OK but under par performances from Werder Bremen and Juventus led to this.

Total Staked		1050.00		Avg Stake
Total Returned		1088.55		10.00
Yield		1.037	3.67%
Winners		70
Losers		35
Strike Rate		66.67%
Current Bank		138.55
Profit / Loss		38.55

Could do with a good performance this coming weekend to pull us up a bit!

[Bruce The Brew Goose]

Originally Posted by Bruce The Brew Goose

A (hopefully) welcome return of the odds on lays this evening, after a no bet weekend.

Rochdale laid at 1.92 v. Barnet (Predicted 0-1)

Match postponed.

[clarky101]

A couple for the normal aways on tuesday
Lincoln @ 3.15
Barnet @4.6 (Post)

& one for the +2's
Stockport @ 2.4

+2's now look like this

Total Staked		200.00
Total Returned		204.65
Yield		1.023	2.33%
Winners		17
Losers		23
Strike Rate		43%
Current Bank		104.65
Profit / Loss		4.65

& the normals

Total Staked		590.00
Total Returned		661.48
Yield		1.121	12.12%
Winners		49
Losers		69
Strike Rate		42%
Current Bank		171.48
Profit / Loss		71.48

[merlin]

.... Three selections for the 3-0 system for this weekend:-

Aston Villa 1.95
Bradford C 1.80
Sampdoria 2.00

Hoping for a better weekend.