Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

[Bruce The Brew Goose]

..... the Betfair commission is actually 5% Bruce, so a little adjustment is needed.

5% is the basic rate, but most people are nearer to 4, which is why I chose 4%.

So, I'll be leaving it at 4%.

[barrhead73]

1 out of 2 draws last night, with Liverpool providing us with a nice profit.

Results to date,

Wins	131
Losses	281
No of Bets	412
Strike Rate	31.8%
Staked	446
Returned	464.53
Yield	4.2%

[merlin]

.... OK back into action after a bit of Spring cleaning! Five selections for the 3-0 system, four at the weekend and one for Thursday:-

Stevenage B (away) Thurs 0-0
Cambridge U 1.46
Bradford C Posponed
Roma 1.48
Seville 1.62

Will be back with the odds later.

[clarky101]

Midweek +2's Aways
Oldham @ 2.74
Bradford @ 2.88
Stevenage (Thurs) @1.62

& Normal aways
Southend @ 3.15

Poor so far but Stevenage still to come, update after game

[happygooner]

I got the new sheets merlin so thanks for that (I suggest the rest of you get in touch if you want them).

Going to resume tracking the over/unders although tonights game doesn't qualify as such. One thing i'm going to track separately is how often the over 2.5 comes around on these 3-0 predictions that merlin has been playing so successfully. If the logic is there for a win the easier the spreadsheet suggests it will be then that same logic should also suggest you are likely to see more goals from the team expected to win easily.

It may flop, who knows. Will track it for a while to see:

Farsley Celtic v Stevenage B - Over 2.5 @ 1.62

[merlin]

..... Good for you Richard, this could be interesting, you never know just what these sheets are capable of throwing up until some experiments are done.This is exactly how I tumbled on the 3-0 system, trial and error! Good luck with this, and I will be watching with interest.

[barrhead73]

DRAW selections for this weekend,


Date-----League---Home Team-Away Team-----Stake--Odds--

25-Jan	L1	Doncaster	Swansea City	1	3.3
26-Jan	L1	Luton Town	Leeds	1	3.5
26-Jan	L1	Walsall	Gillingham	1	3.5
26-Jan	L2	Lincoln City	Dag & Red	1	3.4
26-Jan	L2	MK Dons	Rochdale	1	3.5
26-Jan	L2	Wycombe	Chesterfield	1	3.3
26-Jan	CC	Bristol City	Blackpool	1	3.5
26-Jan	EPL	Aston Villa	Blackburn	1	3.4
26-Jan	Conf	Droylsden	Kidderminster	1	3.6
26-Jan	Conf	Northwich	Halifax Town	1	3.4
28-Jan	Conf	Torquay United	Histon	1	3.6

[Bruce The Brew Goose]

merlin - thanks for the updated spreadsheets, very much appreciated.

Will try and go through them later and see if there are any odds on lays and Euro aways.

[merlin]

.... OK Bruce, no problem, hope they do you justice.

How about Barrhead and Clarky, are you both happy with the sheets youv'e got?

Let's hope we have a promising weekend.

[Bruce The Brew Goose]

There are no odds on lays or European league aways for tomorrow.

Looks like there are a few aways for Sunday, but I want to enter tomorrows results into the spreadsheet before I put them up.

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by happygooner

Going over 2.5 on the 3-0 system

Farsley Celtic v Stevenage B - Over 2.5 @ 1.62

Final score 0-0

0-1 -1point YTD

[clarky101]

So Stevenage let the +2's down

Total Staked		170.00		Ave Stake
Total Returned		148.54		5.00
Yield		0.874	-12.62%
Winners		12
Losers		22
Strike Rate		35%
Current Bank		78.54
Profit / Loss		-21.46		BANK

& the normals

Total Staked		440.00
Total Returned		582.32
Yield		1.323	32.34%
Winners		43
Losers		45
Strike Rate		49%
Current Bank		242.32
Profit / Loss		142.32

And onto this weekend
+2's
Salisbury

Normals
Rotherham
Swindon
Burton
Exeter
Crawley
Aldershot

Cheers Merlin i think i'm ok at the mo

[barrhead73]

Think i'm ok too Merlin.

Good luck for this weekend.

[Grex]

Hi Merlin, Clarky, Barrhead and all others who contribute to this profitable thread.

I am now back from my much-needed break in Argentina - 6 weeks without betting.... the "withdrawal" symptoms drove me crazy .

It´s good to see that all systems based on MW´s sheets are showing a profit... even the X-picks

I have to admit that I did have my trusty lap-top with me on vacation and was playing around with figures (me, addicted?... never!). I tried producing probability equations for 1X2 results based on MW predictions, and then go on to identify "value" odds. The results were reasonably positive. However, I also compared these results with those obtained from a probability system based on Paul Ross´ ratings (365stats.com) and, I have to say, the results were significantly better and, what is perhaps more important, they were more "robust". There are several threads based on PR´s ratings, and all show a positive return.

I have been paper trialing the system for a few weeks now and will probably "go public" on this forum soon (I am loath to do this because, in accordance with Sod´s Law, the results will nose-dive ).

I am not being a traitor to the MW systems - they are lucrative and you should all stick with them. Good luck to everybody

[barrhead73]

Welcome back Grex, sorry the DRAW resuklts have taken a bit of a dip in your absence.

I shall continue posting them up and let you get on with developing your new system.

[Grex]

Hi, Barrhead.... I was never fully convinced with the X-system. Draws are notoriously unpredictable. However, the system showed such amazing yields, even after 150+ bets, that it just had to be followed. Even now, it is still in positive ground.... so keep following it.... and thanks for taking over the task

[happygooner]

Going over 2.5 on the 3-0 system

Cambridge U v Altrincham @ 1.72
Roma v Palermo @ 1.70
Sevilla v Osasuna @ 1.99

[happygooner]

4 goal predictions
Aston V v Blackburn
Bristol City v Blackpool
Lincoln v Dagenham & Redbridge
Mk Dons v Rochdale
Droylsden v Kidderminster

No time to add the odds (other the missus will kill me) so if any of our researchers happen to be popping by you wouldn't mind quickly checking betfair would you...please?

Otherwise i'll have to add them tomor.

Gl people

[Bruce The Brew Goose]

hg - here's the Betfair odds for those overs..............

4 goal predictions
Aston V v Blackburn 2.06
Bristol City v Blackpool 2.06
Lincoln v Dagenham & Redbridge 2.04
Mk Dons v Rochdale 2.02
Droylsden v Kidderminster 1.63

[Bruce The Brew Goose]

No odds on lays for Sunday, but a job lot of Euro aways..........

Athletic Bilbao v. Barcelona 1.69
Deportivo v. Valladolid 2.92
Mallorca v. Atletico Madrid 3.1
Livorno v. Juventus 1.97
Torino v. Lazio 3.4
Udinese v. Inter 1.9