Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

[merlin]

.... looks better and easier to compare.Are you sure you have the stat tables the right way around? I would have thought that the +2-0's would have shown the greater yield.

[clarky101]

No,i double checked this & there has been some dodgy weeks for the +2s & i started them on 4/12/07, also there has been some big prices in the normal aways that have helped out big time........

[barrhead73]

Torquay 1 Burton 2

One game for tonight in the DRAWS.

League 1 - Yeovil v Walsall


Merlin, I also notice that the Oxford v Weymouth game tonight is showing as a 3-0. Do you agree? I''ve only recently updated my spreadsheets so i'm not 100% confident in them at the moment.

[clarky101]

3-0 on mine as well Barrhead

[merlin]

.... no problem with that fellas, just caught up and note that there is one selection for Tuesday night:-

Oxford U (back with odds later)

Looks good on paper.

[happygooner]

Don't know whether this is of interest to anybody but after downloading the worksheets I tallied how the over/under 2.5 market would have gone from date of last update (end Nov) to present.

Results largely inconclusive but there seem to be different patterns developing depending on which league.

I had a very small punt on Leyton Orient over, Oxford over & Kidderminster over which helped on the 2 other losses which I followed for first time. Anyway...without further ado:

Over/Under 2.5 Since 27/11/2007 – Conference

0 goals predicted

Losses - 1

1 goal predicted
Wins - 9
Losses - 5

2 goals predicted
Wins - 6
Losses - 5

3 goals predicted
Wins - 14
Losses - 9

4 goals predicted
Wins - 8
Losses - 4

5 goals predicted
Wins - 3
Losses – 0


Over/Under 2.5 Since 27/11/2007 – Prem

0 goals predicted
Wins – 2 (100% CS)


1 goal predicted
Wins – 7
Losses - 6

2 goals predicted
Wins - 10
Losses – 18

3 goals predicted
Wins –9
Losses – 16

4 goals predicted
Wins – 3


5 goals predicted
Wins - 1

Over/Under 2.5 Since 27/11/2007 – Championship


0 goals predicted
Wins – 3 (1 CS)
Losses - 1

1 goal predicted
Wins - 11
Losses - 10

2 goals predicted
Wins - 15
Losses – 21

3 goals predicted
Wins – 12
Losses – 17

4 goals predicted
Wins – 9
Losses - 7

5 goals predicted

Losses – 1

6 goals predicted

Losses – 1

Over/Under 2.5 Since 27/11/2007 – League 1


0 goals predicted
Wins - 2
Losses – 1

1 goal predicted
Wins – 5
Losses - 8

2 goals predicted
Wins – 17
Losses - 16

3 goals predicted
Wins – 11
Losses - 10

4 goals predicted
Wins – 7
Losses - 6

5 goals predicted

Losses - 1
Over/Under 2.5 Since 27/11/2007 – League 2


0 goals predicted
Wins - 2
Losses –

1 goal predicted
Wins – 3
Losses - 4

2 goals predicted
Wins – 14
Losses - 20

3 goals predicted
Wins – 17
Losses - 14

4 goals predicted
Wins – 8
Losses - 5

[happygooner]

So, can anything useful be gained from this mass of conflicting data or did I just waste my afternoon haha???

[Bruce The Brew Goose]

Hi fellas, only found this site yesterday, so just reading back over these posts. Some good stuff here.
I've been looking at Michael Wray's spreadsetsheets too over this last week or so.
The areas which I thought were worth looking at were:

1) Where 1 side is predicted to win easily - which you boys have cottoned on to long ago, ie the 3-0 threads
2) Backing under 2.5 goals where the spreadsheet predicts 0-0, and overs where 5+ goals are predicted, again it has been covered here
3) Laying teams who are odds on on Betfair who are predicted to lose by the spreadsheet. Can't see anything relating to this here, unless I have missed it.
I'm happy to monitor points 2 and 3 for the next few weeks and see how they go if anyone is interested.

happygooner - could you total up your unders/overs data for all leagues to give something along these lines:
0 goals predicted: Under 2.5 goals: x

[Bruce The Brew Goose]

whoops, posted that before I had finished, end of post should read:

happygooner - could you total up your unders/overs data for all leagues to give something along these lines:
0 goals predicted: Under 2.5 goals: x Over 2.5 goals: y
5+ goals predicted: Under 2.5 goals: x Over 2.5 goals: y

Just to give me an idea if this is worth spending any time on.

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by Bruce The Brew Goose

Hi fellas, only found this site yesterday, so just reading back over these posts. Some good stuff here.
I've been looking at Michael Wray's spreadsetsheets too over this last week or so.
The areas which I thought were worth looking at were:

1) Where 1 side is predicted to win easily - which you boys have cottoned on to long ago, ie the 3-0 threads
2) Backing under 2.5 goals where the spreadsheet predicts 0-0, and overs where 5+ goals are predicted, again it has been covered here
3) Laying teams who are odds on on Betfair who are predicted to lose by the spreadsheet. Can't see anything relating to this here, unless I have missed it.
I'm happy to monitor points 2 and 3 for the next few weeks and see how they go if anyone is interested.

happygooner - could you total up your unders/overs data for all leagues to give something along these lines:
0 goals predicted: Under 2.5 goals: x

Yeah i'll do that. No doubt the 0-0's and 5 goal predictions would be the most consistent but not many selections.

The laying of odds on thing could be worth a look so yeah, go ahead. I'm going to try and monitor the over/under myself but if I get waylayed feel free to step in.

Merlin, this thread could get very very cluttered. Would you prefer I tracked these in a separate thread or are you happy to add to the evergroing lines of research found here?

[happygooner]

Well here it is, the full round up since end Nov-present for over/under 2.5 market:

0 goals predicted

9-3 wins

1 goal predicted

35-33 wins (very inconclusive)

2 goals predicted

62-80 losses (losing rather badly)

3 goals predicted

63-66 losses (totally inconclusive one way or the other

4 goals predicted

35-22 wins (could be on to something)

5 goals+ predicted

4-3 wins (early days and not many selections

[happygooner]

Taking just 0 goals, and 4 goals or more we get 48-28 and a healthy strike rate of 63.16% from this small sample of data.

Depending on the odds available here this could be worth keeping tabs on.

[Bruce The Brew Goose]

So the 0 goals and 5+ goals samples are too small to draw any definite conclusions from, but 13/19 combined is a really promising start.

1,2 and 3 goals can be discarded, which is what you would expect.

4 goals is worth monitoring. On this sample it would suggest the average price of overs in these matches should be 1.63. This would be achievable on almost every selection.

Have you got the actual scorelines for the 0 and 5+ matches, just to see if it might be worth being even more ambitious with these, eg backing 0-0 or under 1.5 goals for the 0's and backing 4+ goals and unquoted correct scores for the 5+'s.

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by Bruce The Brew Goose

Have you got the actual scorelines for the 0 and 5+ matches, just to see if it might be worth being even more ambitious with these, eg backing 0-0 or under 1.5 goals for the 0's and backing 4+ goals and unquoted correct scores for the 5+'s.

I don't but I think it's fairly average to be honest. There were a couple of 0-0 scorelines in the prem which had me quite excited but it didn't replicate in the other leagues.

[Bruce The Brew Goose]

76 selections from the sample you have put up. Over how many weeks are these, just to give us an idea how many selections we can expect each week.

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by Bruce The Brew Goose

76 selections from the sample you have put up. Over how many weeks are these, just to give us an idea how many selections we can expect each week.

Like I said, it was end of Nov (basically last time he updated his spreadsheet for each which is 26/27th).

[Bruce The Brew Goose]

I'll go through the spreadsheets tomorrow and Friday and get the (hopefully) vulnerable odds on favourites and 0,4 and 5+ goal matches posted by Saturday morning at the latest.

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by Bruce The Brew Goose

I'll go through the spreadsheets tomorrow and Friday and get the (hopefully) vulnerable odds on favourites and 0,4 and 5+ goal matches posted by Saturday morning at the latest.

Good luck, I only hope it doesn't take you as long as it did me haha!

by the way

[merlin]

.... hi fellas and a warm welcome to Brucie too. I don't mind in the least what research is done here as long as it all fits under the umbrella of Michael's sheets.So please be my guest it may as well all be all on the one thread then we can keep the related topics all together.The 0-0 unders idea was tracked by myself some time ago, it started off well and had potential because again the thinking behind this move was that if no goals were predicted, there was a good chance that the games concerned may finish <2.5 goals.Would be interesting I suppose to open investigations once again now that we have additional manpower and more time at our disposal.Any tracking will be most welcome and has my blessing.Good to have you all aboard and gives us additional avenues to persue.Thanks!

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by merlin

.... hi fellas and a warm welcome to Brucie too. I don't mind in the least what research is done here as long as it all fits under the umbrella of Michael's sheets.So please be my guest it may as well all be all on the one thread then we can keep the related topics all together.The 0-0 unders idea was tracked by myself some time ago, it started off well and had potential because again the thinking behind this move was that if no goals were predicted, there was a good chance that the games concerned may finish <2.5 goals.Would be interesting I suppose to open investigations once again now that we have additional manpower and more time at our disposal.Any tracking will be most welcome and has my blessing.Good to have you all aboard and gives us additional avenues to persue.Thanks!

No problem. It seems that these sheets may open a number of doors. I just hope after all that he doesn't suddenly decide he hasn't got time anymore and stop haha!