Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. - Page 13 - The Punters Lounge

merlin · 25-09-2007, 18:48

.... thanks for your findings on draws highlighted by the system, quite an eye opener and of course the yield!!!! I don't mind you continuing on this thread Grex, perhaps it's more appropriate that it does stay here as it is all related to the Michael Wray sheets.I shall watch with interest at those highlighted tonight.Thanks Grex and keep up the good work!

Grex · 26-09-2007, 09:02

A 50% strike rate on last night’s two X-picks – however, as 44% of last night’s Conference matches were draws, it wasn’t particularly exciting. So, the overall picture now looks like this:

No. of bets	51
Strike rate	45.1%
Yield (ROI)	47.9%

A word of warning….. this level of yield can NOT be maintained – so, we are due a down-turn, probably starting with tonight’s X-picks from MW’s sheets:

26/09/07	Bundesliga	Frankfurt	-	Karlesruhe
	Serie A	Catania	-	Empoli
		Siena	-	Atalanta
	Primera Liga	La Coruna	-	Huelva
		Murcia	-	Almeria
		Osasuna	-	Levante
		Atl Bilbao	-	Atl Madrid

Grex · 26-09-2007, 10:56

Can somebody give me advice on formatting.... particularly tables? I prepare the text and tables for my posts in MS Word and then copy & paste to the PL reply box... but it never looks the same (see example above - looked perfect in MS Word, but the published version is all over the place!)

merlin · 26-09-2007, 12:38

..... my last tables were copied and pasted from Excel. I assume you have this Grex and can do the basics.Cheers.

Grex · 26-09-2007, 14:49

Cheers, Merlin - I'll give it a go.

merlin · 26-09-2007, 19:53

.... two selections highlighted by the system for this weekend, both in Blue Square Conference:-

Crawley T 1.41
Torquay U 1.13

Here's hoping.

Grex · 27-09-2007, 08:22

Good luck with the 2 weekend selections, Merlin.

Well, what can I say about yesterday's X-picks? Unmitigated disaster!

26/09/07	Bundesliga	Frankfurt	-	Karlsruhe	0-1	L
	Serie A	Catania	-	Empoli	1-0	L
		Siena	-	Atalanta	1-1	W
	Primera Liga	La Coruna	-	Recreativo	0-2	L
		Murcia	-	Almeria	0-1	L
		Osasuna	-	Levante	4-1	L
		Ath Bilbao	-	Ath Madrid	0-2	L

Which makes the overall picture as follows:

No. Bets	58
Strike Rate	41.4%
Yield	35.0%

The only "defence" is that out of 23 matches last night, only 2 finished as draws, so 1 out of 7 is not bad

Onwards and upwards, as they say !

merlin · 27-09-2007, 15:17

.... still a healthy yield and strike rate. These can be compared with Matthew's stats on the thread "Predicting the Premiership using Stats".
With draws the odds are always around 3.25 at least so you can expect a healthy yield I think!

Grex · 27-09-2007, 16:09

Yes, I have been following Matthew's thread and his X predictions certainly out-perform both H's and A's (both this season and last season). Of course, we can't compare the methodology behind the 2 systems, because we don't have access to Michael's criteria.

By the way, Merlin, I would like to do some "back-testing" on MW's sheets. Did you by any chance keep a record of MW's predictions for last season??... if so, can you give me a copy?? I'm not familiar with the private contact system on this site - perhaps you could help with that too. Sorry to be a pain.

merlin · 27-09-2007, 18:22

.... sorry Grex I don't have any old sheets, as soon as I finish one season I make way for the next.You could try sending a Private Message (at the top of your Strategies and Systems page) to muppett77, he just may be able to help you on this.

Grex · 29-09-2007, 08:45

For this week-end, MW´s sheets highlight the following 23 X-picks

:

29/09/07	English Prem	Chelsea	-	Fulham
		Derby	-	Bolton
	English Champ	Barnsley	-	Cardiff
		Burnley	-	Palace
	English 1	Doncaster	-	Cheltenham
		Millwall	-	Swindon
		Oldham	-	Crewe
	English 2	Brentford	-	Stockport
		Bury	-	Accrington
	English Conf	Histon	-	Weymouth
	Bundesliga	Hamburg	-	Wolfsburg
		Karlsruhe	-	Dortmund
		Leverkusen	-	B. Munich
	Serie A	Roma	-	Inter
	Primera	Levante	-	Barcelona
30/09/07	English Prem	Everton		Middlesboro
	English Conf	Oxford		York
	Serie A	Cagliari		Siena
		Napoli		Genoa
		Sampdoria		Atalanta
	Primera	Espanol		La Coruna
		Valladolid		Murcia
		Recreativo		Valencia

merlin · 29-09-2007, 12:56

.... good to see you persuing this line Grex, and this will be interesting to see just how things pan out.Good luck!

muppet77 · 29-09-2007, 13:36

looks good fellas.

keep it up.

Grex · 01-10-2007, 07:53

As for the weekend's X-picks..... Saturday was excellent (particularly the Chelsea-Fulham result at odds of 6.0

), however, it all went a bit pear-shaped on Sunday. Still, there was a yield of 10% on the 23 picks (at level stakes). What is worrying is that there is a downward trend on the overall yield. But, as I said before, this level of return is not sustainable, so a down-turn was inevitable.

Overall picture is:

No. Bets	81
Strike Rate	39.5%
Yield	31.9%

One X-pick for tonight - Tottenham v. Aston Villa

25-09-2007, 18:48	#241 (permalink)
merlin Wizard Elect Join Date: 07 Mar 2005 Location: Chester-le-Street.Co.Durham.UK. Posts: 1,384	Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... thanks for your findings on draws highlighted by the system, quite an eye opener and of course the yield!!!! I don't mind you continuing on this thread Grex, perhaps it's more appropriate that it does stay here as it is all related to the Michael Wray sheets.I shall watch with interest at those highlighted tonight.Thanks Grex and keep up the good work!

26-09-2007, 10:56	#243 (permalink)
Grex Mouldy Oldie Join Date: 15 Jun 2007 Location: UK exile living in Montenegro Posts: 315	Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Can somebody give me advice on formatting.... particularly tables? I prepare the text and tables for my posts in MS Word and then copy & paste to the PL reply box... but it never looks the same (see example above - looked perfect in MS Word, but the published version is all over the place!) Last edited by Grex; 26-09-2007 at 10:58.

26-09-2007, 12:38	#244 (permalink)
merlin Wizard Elect Join Date: 07 Mar 2005 Location: Chester-le-Street.Co.Durham.UK. Posts: 1,384	Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... my last tables were copied and pasted from Excel. I assume you have this Grex and can do the basics.Cheers. Last edited by merlin; 26-09-2007 at 12:45.

26-09-2007, 14:49	#245 (permalink)
Grex Mouldy Oldie Join Date: 15 Jun 2007 Location: UK exile living in Montenegro Posts: 315	Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Cheers, Merlin - I'll give it a go.

26-09-2007, 19:53	#246 (permalink)
merlin Wizard Elect Join Date: 07 Mar 2005 Location: Chester-le-Street.Co.Durham.UK. Posts: 1,384	Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... two selections highlighted by the system for this weekend, both in Blue Square Conference:- Crawley T 1.41 Torquay U 1.13 Here's hoping.

27-09-2007, 15:17	#248 (permalink)
merlin Wizard Elect Join Date: 07 Mar 2005 Location: Chester-le-Street.Co.Durham.UK. Posts: 1,384	Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... still a healthy yield and strike rate. These can be compared with Matthew's stats on the thread "Predicting the Premiership using Stats". With draws the odds are always around 3.25 at least so you can expect a healthy yield I think!

27-09-2007, 16:09	#249 (permalink)
Grex Mouldy Oldie Join Date: 15 Jun 2007 Location: UK exile living in Montenegro Posts: 315	Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Yes, I have been following Matthew's thread and his X predictions certainly out-perform both H's and A's (both this season and last season). Of course, we can't compare the methodology behind the 2 systems, because we don't have access to Michael's criteria. By the way, Merlin, I would like to do some "back-testing" on MW's sheets. Did you by any chance keep a record of MW's predictions for last season??... if so, can you give me a copy?? I'm not familiar with the private contact system on this site - perhaps you could help with that too. Sorry to be a pain.

27-09-2007, 18:22	#250 (permalink)
merlin Wizard Elect Join Date: 07 Mar 2005 Location: Chester-le-Street.Co.Durham.UK. Posts: 1,384	Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... sorry Grex I don't have any old sheets, as soon as I finish one season I make way for the next.You could try sending a Private Message (at the top of your Strategies and Systems page) to muppett77, he just may be able to help you on this.

29-09-2007, 12:56	#252 (permalink)
merlin Wizard Elect Join Date: 07 Mar 2005 Location: Chester-le-Street.Co.Durham.UK. Posts: 1,384	Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... good to see you persuing this line Grex, and this will be interesting to see just how things pan out.Good luck!

29-09-2007, 13:36	#253 (permalink)
muppet77 Muppet Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 1,988	Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. looks good fellas. keep it up.

01-10-2007, 13:13	#255 (permalink)
merlin Wizard Elect