Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

[merlin]

.... always magical David,always a thrill to get all predictions correct.

If I remember rightly, I had a few occasions last season where this

happened.Anyway good to hear from you, and good luck with your

endeavours.

[merlin]

.... right Cramer your instructions:-

1. Click on required Division.
2. Enable macros.
3. Click on to the tab at the bottom - Enter Results for date range.
4. Click on to the yellow date boxes to set your required week/day from
the pop up calendar.Set the first date to something like 4th August.
5. Click on button 1.
6. Click on OK on fixture pop up box.
7. Up comes fixutres and predictions for the required date.
8. If predicting - click clear list then save.
9. If updating scores - insert the scores in the home and away boxes,
take the cursor out of the boxes when finished.
10. Click button 2 and all is updated.
11. Click save.
12. Finish.

For updating odd scores:-

1. Click on required division.
2. Enable macros.
3. Click on tab at bottom - Enter Result.
4. Click on home ^ box.
5. Highlight home team.
6. Click on away ^ box.
7. Highlight away team.
8. Click on enter result.
9. Insert scores in pop up box by using ^ v
10, Click on accept button.
11. Click x to end and then save all.

Hope this helps, if not give me a shout again.Cheers.

[Cramer v Cramer]

Thanks

Can I just check these are the Premiership predictions for this weekend:

Arsenal	Derby County			5	0
Aston Villa	Everton			2	1
Blackburn Rovers	Portsmouth			2	0
Bolton Wanderers	Tottenham Hotspur			2	2
Fulham	Manchester City			2	2
Liverpool	Birmingham City			4	1
Manchester United	Chelsea			1	0
Middlesbrough	Sunderland			2	1
Newcastle United	West Ham United			0	2
Reading	Wigan Athletic			1	2

[merlin]

.... all OK except the last one where I have Reading 1 Wigan A 1.

We have had this sort of thing over the two seasons from time to time where someone tends to get an odd result wrong and this consequently throws out the discrepancy.I suggest you recheck your result input for these two teams.Click on the tab at the bottom - Results Grid and read off.

The results for these two are:-

Reading.
0-0 Man U a
1-2 Charlton h
1-0 Everton h
0-3 Bolton a
0-3 W.Ham h
1-2 Sunderland a

Wigan A.
1-2 Everton a
1-0 Middlesbrough h
3-0 Sunderland h
1-1 W.Ham a
0-1 Newcastle a
1-1 Fulham h

Hope this helps.

[Cramer v Cramer]

Thanks merlin, I assume you're giving the Reading and Wigan scores first in all of those, if so then they are all the same

Again, thanks for your help

[Djordje]

I saw you had great last night, merlin.

What are the predictions for tonight games in Championship?

Dont know on what principle these spreadsheets work, but Colchester were better than Southampton in all aspects of the game so far, so I guess Saints cant be red hot favorites here.

I will go for Colchester tonight @5 anyway, looks like big value to me.

[merlin]

Hi Djordje,
Good to hear from you again, hope you are well, long time no speak! The sheets have indicated the following for tonight:-

Cardiff Watford - Draw
Southampton Colchester - Away win and a qualifier for the system!

Colchester U (2) 5.40 (Betfair)

Hope this helps.

[Djordje]

are these spreadsheets updated on regular basis btw?

[merlin]

.... cannot speak for others or even Michael Wray, but mine are religiously updated after every match I monitor.There ain't any as updated as these I fear!

[merlin]

.... This week's highlighted selections which meet the criteria :-

Arsenal 1.18
Liverpool 1.24
Chesterfield 1.69
Aldershot 1.54
Salisbury 1.52

There were six selections for Euro this week but have decided to leave these out until six games have been played.

Cheers.

[Djordje]

Originally Posted by merlin

.... all OK except the last one where I have Reading 1 Wigan A 1.

We have had this sort of thing over the two seasons from time to time where someone tends to get an odd result wrong and this consequently throws out the discrepancy.I suggest you recheck your result input for these two teams.Click on the tab at the bottom - Results Grid and read off.

The results for these two are:-

Reading.
0-0 Man U a
1-2 Charlton h
1-0 Everton h
0-3 Bolton a
0-3 W.Ham h
1-2 Sunderland a

Wigan A.
1-2 Everton a
1-0 Middlesbrough h
3-0 Sunderland h
1-1 W.Ham a
0-1 Newcastle a
1-1 Fulham h

Hope this helps.

I've just downloaded MW spreadsheets and got the same result for Reading v Wigan match as Cramer.

Are you sure merlin you should have Reading v Charlton match there?

[clarky101]

Mines the same as well

[Cramer v Cramer]

Originally Posted by Djordje

I've just downloaded MW spreadsheets and got the same result for Reading v Wigan match as Cramer.

Are you sure merlin you should have Reading v Charlton match there?

Maybe I'm right then

I assumed that match merlin had was Reading v Chelsea for which he had the correct result

[merlin]

.... apologies Gentlemen, I have read the wrong one off, should be Chelsea at home cannot read my own writing! Result Reading 1.... Chelsea 2
How does that make things now?

[merlin]

.... mixed bag today, three winners and two losers to make the latest position:-

Total Staked	180.00
Total Returned	207.40
Yield %	15.22
Winners	12
Losers	6
Total Bets	18
Strike Rate %	66.67
Current Bank	127.40
Profit/Loss	27.40

Onwards and upwards.

[Grex]

Wise decision not to go for the Euro selections.... I think only one out of the six won .

I have been doing some analysis on MW´s draw selections with some surprising results - I will do a detailed post when I have finalised and tabulated all the data.

[merlin]

... will be interested to see your findings, anything that gives us the edge cannot be at all bad!Cheers.

[Grex]

I promised to share the results of my analysis of Michael Wray’s performance on “X” predictions. I have only been keeping the sheets up to date since the end of August, so it is a relatively short sample, with a total of 226 games having been played. A summary of the results is as follows:

No. of bets	49
Strike rate	44.9%
Yield (ROI)	47.3%

Some comments on an apparently exceptional performance:

· The yield has been based on level stakes and the odds are Bet365 courtesy of football-data.co.uk;
· Disregarding the first 20 bets, the % yield has remained relatively constant between 31% and 65% (always a good sign);
· Performance between leagues is, again, reasonably consistent, with the exception of the German Bundesliga, where returns have been very low (I have always had problems fitting the German leagues into any statistical system!);
· The overall percentage of draws since the end of August has been relatively high (32% compared with a previous 5 year average of 27% across the 8 leagues in question). This suggests that any “X” prediction system would have performed better than average during the recent period;

And, of course, there is the biggest single reservation (and I know it has been raised several times before on related threads)….. we don’t know the basis of MW’s analysis and prediction system. Quite correctly, he is not willing to reveal the “codes” behind his system, so we are literally working “blind”.

However, as we say, the proof of the pudding is in the eating… and, so far the pudding tastes pretty good

I am not suggesting you follow MW’s “X” selections with hard cash (yet), but it will be interesting to see how they perform over the next few weeks. If Merlin doesn’t mind, I will keep the updates on this thread…. or perhaps it would be better to start a new thread. It’s up to you Merlin.

As a matter of interest, MW’s upcoming “X” predictions are:

25/09/07	English Conf	Gravesend	-	Crawley
		Stafford	-	Histon (mis-read the sheets - this should be away win)
		Woking	-	Exeter
26/09/07	Bundesliga	Frankfurt	-	Karlesruhe
	Serie A	Siena	-	Atalanta

PLUS.... Catania - Empoli

Good luck