Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by merlin

.... thanks fellas, yep, it is indeed another full house.Only a week or two

ago it was a straight sevenfold! Good weekend for me this weekend, I'm

certainly not complaining! Full figures will be up shortly.

ps The Paul Ross Ratings appear to be going well also Cavelloman, also a

tidy profit. Done any figures like yield etc with these yet?

My value bets are showing a yield of 8% with a strike rate of 60.2%. These are based on my Power Penetration and Pure Penetration ratings but I factor in Paul's ratings the racing and Football Outloolk and Times computer figures plus poisson analysis based on goals scored/conceded.

The Paul Ross system I'm using is only likely to give 20-25 bets per year. Back tested gave some profit every year. Also there will be no odds-on bets

So far this year 8 bets 5 winners with yield of 58.5%

[merlin]

.... quite impressed with the Paul Ross method.Granted there will not be

many bets but with yield and strike rate so predominant it could prove

to be a system well worth the time and effort to throw in with the meat

and potatoes systems employed every week.Does not look as if it will

let you down many times over a season!

[merlin]

..... so another good weekend for the system with four correct from

four and a four timer up in the process, can't be bad! Here is the latest

set of figures:-

Total Staked 1160.00
Total Returned 1290.22
Yield + 11.23%
Winners 77
Losers 39
Total Bets 116
Strike Rate 66.38%
Current Bank 230.22
Profit/Loss +130.22

Onwards and upwards!

[BillyHills]

Well done Merlin, great weekend for you all round!

[merlin]

.... thanks Graham, always a pleasure to get a call from the elite.

As you say, good weekend all round what with this full house coming

good, and my TC selections grabbing the treble, all is sweet in the world!

[merlin]

.... after last week's four correct we shall certainly be looking for a full

house from these three, although two of them ARE away:-

Hull C 1.90
Rochdale (A) 2.50
Inter Milan (A) 1.83

Here's hoping!

[merlin]

.... well not a lot of joy around this weekend, which saw only one of the

three selections come home, Rochdale but at a decent price of 2.50.

Latest position:-

Total Staked 1190.00
Total Returned 1315.22
Yield +10.52%
Winners 78
Losers 41
Total Bets 119
Strike Rate 65.55%
Current Bank 225.22
Profit/Loss 125.22

Selections for Easter Monday:-

Manchester U Think this is cancelled due to Roma.
Preston N.E. 1.69

Onwards forever onwards.

[laying larry]

Merlin, are you no longer doing the spreadsheets? I thought things were looking quite Rosy.

Cheers LL

[merlin]

.... Hi there LL, always a welcome visitor. I have been looking at the MW

sheets and keeping these up to date whilst being missing absent for a

week or two due to one reason or another beyond my control.With silly

season upon us, I was trying to decide whether to cut off and call it a

day as some of the selections thrown out were rather dubvious to say the

least. I shall bring the sheets up to date and have a rethink whether to

carry on to the bitter end.

[merlin]

... OK got most of it up to date I think, here are the latest figures:-

Total Staked 1210.00
Total Returned 1327.02
Yield 9.67%
Winners 79
Losers 42
Total Bets 121
Strike Rate 65.29%
Current Bank 217.02
Profit/Loss +117.02

Still in the Black so it's got to be a plus.

[merlin]

.... Only looking at one selection this weekend, thrown out by the

system:-

Chelsea (H) 1.35 Betfair.

Onwards and upwards.

[merlin]

.... missed one selection for the system for Saturday:-

Morecambe (H) 1.42 Betfair.

Cheers.

[laying larry]

Cheers Merlin, If my memory serves me right I think that last season ended quite well, so hopefully some of the same would be nice for all the work you put into it.

Cheers LL

[merlin]

.... you are quite right LL when you say that last season was also good.

However this was the birth of the system which was rather late into the

season when we got it off the ground. We managed 44 bets then with a

strike rate of 75.00% which was good in anyone's book. I think the big

difference in this season's SR in comparison, is that we started too soon!

Next season we will give the season around five or six games to settle

prior to naming any selections, and quote most prices at Betfair odds to

maximise both strike rate and profits.I will give both sets of stats when

this season eventually closes,but after two seasons of being in the Black

seems to prove that the proof of the pudding,is in the eating!

[merlin]

.... another shocker by Chelsea last weekend let the side down badly, and

thanks to Morecambe at least the flag was kept flying at a reasonable

height.Latest position in the stats table:-

Total Staked 1230.00
Total Returned 1341.22
Yield 9.04%
Winners 80
Losers 43
Total Bets 123
Strike Rate 65.04%
Current Bank 211.22
Profit/Loss +111.22

Will produce report on last season's figures at the same time as my final report on this season,and a comparison can be then made.Forever onwards and forever upwards!

[merlin]

.... with no selections highlighted for this weekend it's time to bring down

the curtain on the season and reflect side by side on the performances

of the system over last season and this current one:-

2007 ------------------------------- 2006
Total Staked 1230.00---------------- 440.00
Total Returned 1341.22-------------- 486.69
Yield 9.04%------------------------- 10.61%
Winners 80 ------------------------- 33
Losers 43 --------------------------- 11
Total Bets 123 ---------------------- 44
Strike Rate 65.04% ------------------ 75%
Current bank 211.22 ----------------- 146.69
Profit/Loss + 111.22 -------------------+46.69

So adios until the new season, will be back with more Michael Wray
selections, keep watching this space!

[laying larry]

Merlin, many thanks for all the work you have put into this and I look foreword to the next season.

Cheers LL

[merlin]

.... thanks LL. No problem with doing this each and every week, looks to

be quite a stable simple little system and probably by using a more stable

and systematic staking approach, maximum returns may be achieved.

I feel I am learning something about this system each season I get

involved.Will probably let around five or six games slip by in the new

season in order to let the dust settle, I'm sure by not doing that this

season I lost ground!

[AJ]

humble pie eating time for me here.....

I questioned the validity of this system two years ago, whilst I stand by the concerns I posted then, I can't argue with the results which show 2 years of profit and decent yields. Your data size is getting close to being significant, and profit appears stable.

So, I congratulate you for your persistance and for the delivery of a succesful and profitable system.

Very best of luck for next season

[merlin]

.... just seen this today AJ and thanks for the vote of creditability.

I remember we had very different views from one another and some

severe critics, but all is forgiven and I hope that we can forge new

undiscovered pathways in the interests of making profits.I feel that

there is scope for greater performance as not always the best prices

were researched.Also I think with a later start, say some five to six

weeks after kick off would be advantageous to allow form to settle down

more.The yield would increase I feel if this were carried out.Anyway

good to settle past differences friend, and I look forward to more

stable relationships in the near future.Good look for the new season!