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28-03-2008, 21:40
| #41 (permalink) |
| God Punter   Join Date: 18 Jan 2008 Location: Sweden
Posts: 2,137
|  Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Ok no fancy table but nevertheless, here are the probs: Match, H%, D%, A% Birmingham - Man City, 37, 30, 33 Bolton - Arsenal, 19, 20, 61 Derby - Fulham, 34, 32, 34 Portsmouth - Wigan, 60, 24, 16 Reading - Blackburn, 32, 28, 40 Sunderland - West ham, 34, 28, 38 Man Utd - Aston Villa, 64, 22, 14 Chelsea - Middlesbrough, 72, 20, 8 Tottenham - Newcastle, 61, 24, 15 Liverpool - Everton, 52, 26, 22  |
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28-03-2008, 22:34
| #42 (permalink) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mouldy Oldie  Join Date: 15 Jun 2007 Location: UK exile living in Montenegro
Posts: 316
| Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Thanks HooLooVoo for making the effort, despite the  A quick scan suggests the % predictions from the 4 contributors are resonably consistent. It will be interesting to see how the "Super Averages" work out, Loon. It would also be interesting to see how the average probabilities translate into value % by comparing them with "neutral" odds (Bet365 has been suggested). Bet365 odds are currently:
__________________ Three rotating balls..... and counting | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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29-03-2008, 01:09
| #43 (permalink) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ...a little crazy  Join Date: 21 Jul 2006 Location: Budapest, Hungary Age: 21
Posts: 709
| Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion right, couple of things - great to get all the predictions in, below are the side by side and the average weighted:
...and the weighted averages:
now both Rushian and Grex have made interesting points - Grex - you're right, we should probably include the bet365 odds in this aswell, and Rushian suggested the fink tank percentages too! I agree with both, both are (in theory) much more reliable, since made by paid professionals right?! so I will include these next week (just means adding a few more spreadsheets to the workbook - which i can't do right now due to LSS/dustys aways) hope that's alright with the both of you?! and let's hope for a successful weekend
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29-03-2008, 08:12
| #44 (permalink) |
| Dedicated Punter Join Date: 12 Dec 2006
Posts: 239
| Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Thanks for the update lunatism. Good work Regarding the use of bet365 odds and the fink tank data, both good ideas (and I have to correct you: the fink tank data wasn't my idea  )Interesting figures: I am wondering though, in the same sense that we are willing to back a team which represents value according to our probabilities, are we willing to use these figures to offer odds on betting exchanges? For example, I would be very reluctant to offer odds of 50.0 on a Derby-Fulham draw, as lunatism figures would suggest (although who am I to judge, following lunatism's succesful systems  )Overall, this may be of interest to follow  |
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29-03-2008, 08:17
| #45 (permalink) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mouldy Oldie Join Date: 15 Jun 2007 Location: UK exile living in Montenegro
Posts: 316
| Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Excellent work, Loon. By the way, Loon, only 40% probability of Man United winning  ..... if I can find 100% value odds of 2.50, I´ll put my life savings on it  I have done a quick table for the % value odds for the matches.
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