Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion

[Rushian]

Here are mine as well:

Date	Home	Away	H%	D%	A%
12/4/2008	Birmingham	Everton	32.4%	31.3%	36.3%
12/4/2008	Bolton	West Ham	60.5%	23.0%	16.6%
12/4/2008	Derby	Aston Villa	28.6%	27.2%	44.1%
12/4/2008	Portsmouth	Newcastle	40.0%	29.2%	30.8%
12/4/2008	Reading	Fulham	51.3%	25.5%	23.2%
12/4/2008	Sunderland	Man City	35.4%	30.6%	34.0%
12/4/2008	Tottenham	Middlesbrough	54.8%	24.1%	21.1%
13/4/2008	Liverpool	Blackburn	55.4%	27.9%	16.7%
13/4/2008	Man United	Arsenal	48.9%	26.2%	24.8%
14/4/2008	Chelsea	Wigan	77.6%	16.8%	5.6%

I'll summarize the probabilities tomorrow

[Grex]

Sorry lads, I had to leave the country at short notice (no, the police are not after me).... and I forgot to bring my excel files with me.... so, I won´t be able to contribute to this weekend´s probabilities.

I will be back for weekend 19/20 April.

[Rushian]

Better late than never! I've averaged the three submitted entries (Samba_SamPa's, FinkTank's and mine). Here are the results:

Date	Home	Away	H%	D%	A%	OddsH	OddsD	OddsA	Bet365H	Bet365D	Bet365A
12/4/2008	Birmingham	Everton	31.5%	27.7%	40.8%	3.17	3.60	2.45	3.00	3.30	2.40
12/4/2008	Bolton	West Ham	50.8%	24.4%	24.9%	1.97	4.10	4.02	2.10	3.40	3.50
12/4/2008	Derby	Aston Villa	26.9%	25.6%	47.5%	3.71	3.91	2.11	6.00	4.00	1.57
12/4/2008	Portsmouth	Newcastle	46.2%	28.2%	25.7%	2.17	3.55	3.90	2.20	3.30	3.40
12/4/2008	Reading	Fulham	50.9%	23.4%	25.7%	1.96	4.28	3.89	1.90	3.40	4.33
12/4/2008	Sunderland	Man City	37.0%	25.7%	37.2%	2.70	3.89	2.69	2.20	3.30	3.40
12/4/2008	Tottenham	Middlesbrough	49.6%	27.6%	22.7%	2.01	3.62	4.40	1.66	3.60	5.50
13/4/2008	Liverpool	Blackburn	57.1%	26.7%	16.1%	1.75	3.74	6.20	1.50	4.00	7.00
13/4/2008	Man United	Arsenal	51.5%	25.5%	23.0%	1.94	3.92	4.35	1.83	3.50	4.50
14/4/2008	Chelsea	Wigan	76.4%	17.0%	6.6%	1.31	5.89	15.18	1.22	6.00	15.00

Again, mostly longshots are highlighted as "value" which probably says something either about the way these figures are calculated or about the way the odds are set by the bookmakers. Any views?

Rushian

[statman john]

Rushian, the "value" is likely to be on the longshots i think we all accept that. looking at the figures id be quite happy folowing the value on bolton and pompie. i think it is also worth laying tottenham at that sort of price.
My other thoughts on these predictions move more into trading than fixed odds. If you can bet in play to get the price you want after no longer than x amount of minutes then is this worth doing? i think 1st goal average is about 35 minutes, if my team hits the price after 15 minutes id consider it worth a go?
My other thought is how well these predictions are calculating betfair starting prices. if they are pretty accurate for the starting prices, would it be reasonabe to assume that you can back or lay the price on a friday with the expectation it will fall in line with the model predictions? you can then just trade out before a ball is even kicked?
I dunno, maybe it was too much beer last night!
good luck all with whatever bets you have

[lunatism]

Birmingham City Football Club	v	Everton Football Club	14%	32%	54%
Bolton Wanderers Football Club	v	West Ham United Football Club	22%	23%	55%
Derby County FC	v	Aston Villa Football Club	12%	24%	64%
Reading FC	v	Fulham Football Club	56%	11%	33%
Sunderland Association Football Club	v	Manchester City Football Club	32%	35%	33%
Tottenham Hotspur Football Club	v	Middlesbrough Football Club	46%	29%	25%
Portsmouth Football Club	v	Newcastle United Football Club	43%	41%	16%
Liverpool Football Club	v	Blackburn Rovers Football Club	38%	43%	19%
Manchester United	v	Arsenal Football Club	34%	47%	18%

[Rushian]

Following today's results, I've prepared some summarized figures, based on the scenario of staking 10 pts in any match which is highlighted through these odds (i.e. the red figures). In the case that more than one outcome is highlighted e.g. D and A, then the stake was 5pts each. From the start of the thread these were the bets (using Bet365 odds):

Date	Home	Away	Bet	Odds	Stake	Result	Return
29/3/2008	Birmingham	Man City	A	3.00	10	H	0
29/3/2008	Bolton	Arsenal	D	3.60	10	A	0
29/3/2008	Derby	Fulham	H	3.00	10	D	0
29/3/2008	Man United	Aston Villa	D	5.00	5	H	0
29/3/2008	Man United	Aston Villa	A	12.00	5	H	0
29/3/2008	Portsmouth	Wigan	D	3.60	10	H	0
29/3/2008	Reading	Blackburn	A	3.00	10	D	0
29/3/2008	Sunderland	West Ham	A	3.25	10	H	0
30/3/2008	Chelsea	Middlesbrough	D	5.00	5	H	0
30/3/2008	Chelsea	Middlesbrough	A	12.00	5	H	0
30/3/2008	Liverpool	Everton	D	3.60	5	H	0
30/3/2008	Liverpool	Everton	A	5.00	5	H	0
30/3/2008	Tottenham	Newcastle	A	5.50	10	A	55
5/4/2008	Arsenal	Liverpool	D	3.20	5	D	16
5/4/2008	Arsenal	Liverpool	A	4.50	5	D	0
5/4/2008	Aston Villa	Bolton	A	5.50	10	H	0
5/4/2008	Blackburn	Tottenham	D	3.40	10	D	34
5/4/2008	Fulham	Sunderland	H	2.30	10	A	0
5/4/2008	Man City	Chelsea	D	3.60	10	A	0
5/4/2008</