Predicting The English Premier League-using stats

[Jaded]

Very impressive results from last season, and very close to being off to a great start - really unlucky with the Spurs game

Will be following this with interest.

[Matthew]

we go again

Date Home Away Prediction Odds Bookie Stake Correct Return 14/08/2007 Tottenham Everton D 3.5 Betfair £42.32 0

[stodin]

Originally Posted by plopplop

Selections will be posted every weekend, yes.

Although I say that, I am at a wedding next weekend so might not get the sunday bets up. I need the preceding days matches to be completed before I can do the next days.

its not Richard's wedding by any chance is it?

[Matthew]

No not Richard's - it was a fellow PLer however, LaRoz (Simon).

Very nice day it was too......

Plenty of

[happygooner]

Unlucky plopplop.

I watched your system with great interest last year and this year i've decided to follow. Fingers crossed for tomorrow if there are going to be any plays.

[Matthew]

Originally Posted by happygooner

Unlucky plopplop.

I watched your system with great interest last year and this year i've decided to follow. Fingers crossed for tomorrow if there are going to be any plays.

Tell me about it.............Tottenham aint half w@nk!!!!!

Date Home Away Prediction Odds Bookie Stake Correct Return 39308 Tottenham Everton D 3.5 Betfair £42.32 N 0

System Stats:

ALL HW D AW No of Bets: 3 0 3 0 Staked: £134.32 £0 £134.32 £0 Returned: £0 £0 £0 £0 P+L: £-134.32 £0 £-134.32 £0 Strike Rate: 0% 0% 0% 0% Yield: -100% 0% -100% 0% Avg Back Odds: 3.58 0 2.69 0 Avg Win Odds: 0 0 0 0 Each Person: £44.16

[Matthew]

Tomorrow I have:

Date Home Away Prediction Odds Bookie Stake Correct Return 15/08/1007 Fulham Bolton AW 3.60 Betfair £40.63 15/08/1007 Portsmouth Man Utd AW 1.67 Betfair £40.63 15/08/1007 Reading Chelsea D 4.00 Betfair £40.63 15/08/1007 Wigan Middlesbrough AW 3.25 Betfair £40.63

Lets hope for a change of luck!!!

[dubzero]

stake size is relatively high. Today's stake size is almost 15% of bank, isn't it? and but yet, I'm following you just the same.

[Fen4e]

Man, these are a lot of money !!! 40 $ at single match.. you have to value the money ;-P

[Matthew]

Originally Posted by dubzero

stake size is relatively high. Today's stake size is almost 15% of bank, isn't it? and but yet, I'm following you just the same.

Stake size is actually 4% of current bank - so with 4 predicitions it is actually (£162.51 / £1,015.68) 16%.
4% is possibly aggressive and there is a situation i suppose where on a given EPL matchday I could have 40% of my bank out there.
After a good season last year - I'm looking to make it pay this year.

Originally Posted by Fen4e

Man, these are a lot of money !!! 40 $ at single match.. you have to value the money ;-P

With 23 people in my syndicate I am actually only risking £1.77 per person per match. You have to risk more than that to simply place a bet at betfair.

[robsterling]

I noticed you do find value as a few of the results you recommend the prices shorten. So I was wondering how much value your selections generally give in your opinion, ie. is it worth backing them at say 3.1 when you have them at 3.3 in your thread for instance (I made this price up btw).

Thanks Rob

[happygooner]

Wow, it truly is you and your followers against the known world. Does it bother you at all that every man, woman, child and their dog are on the other side?

Even Man U who I thought would be a popular choice is a fairly minority bet compared to those on the draw or Portsmouth!

Just one thing i've notice from trailing back through last years thread. Compared to then you don't seem to have started off with many HW when these were the mainstay of last seasons success? Purely coincidence or enforced by a change in the system?

[Matthew]

Originally Posted by happygooner

Wow, it truly is you and your followers against the known world. Does it bother you at all that every man, woman, child and their dog are on the other side?

Even Man U who I thought would be a popular choice is a fairly minority bet compared to those on the draw or Portsmouth!

Just one thing i've notice from trailing back through last years thread. Compared to then you don't seem to have started off with many HW when these were the mainstay of last seasons success? Purely coincidence or enforced by a change in the system?

Post #1 gives a breakdown of what this version of the model would have chosen last season.

It is a much more balanced model this year (more data to work off etc.....) I've still got the old model so when I have some time it'll be interesting to see how they compare.

The model has changed, principally because it outperformed the old model across last season (post #1).

I know its not been the best start but I'm hopeful.

[Matthew]

Originally Posted by robsterling

I noticed you do find value as a few of the results you recommend the prices shorten. So I was wondering how much value your selections generally give in your opinion, ie. is it worth backing them at say 3.1 when you have them at 3.3 in your thread for instance (I made this price up btw).

Thanks Rob

Good question. My cutoffs state that I'll take a HW if my %chance is 20% above the bookies (best of GameBookers, Interwetten, Ladbrokes, SportingBet, William Hill) price, 0% for a Draw and AW.
These were the optimal cutoffs found when retrospectively searching for them via testing every possible combination.

Tonight for instance......I think:

Bolton have a 57% chance (equiv. 1.75 dec odds)
Man U 74% chance (equiv. 1.35 dec odds)
Reading/Chelsea Draw - 33% chance (equiv. 3.00 dec odds)
Middlesbrough 52% chance (equiv. 1.92 dec odds)

So some massive value........although this early in the season it may take some time to settle down.

[algorithmbetting]

i find the wide divergence between bookies odds and your odds interesting. my odds too are often very different than bookies though my system is not as refined as yours i think.

when i initially noted the large difference in odds i thought that my model must be wrong/stupid but then why should estimates of % win/loss probability vary by only +/-10% for instance. given west ham can do the double over arsenal and man u in one season and yet their odds pre match no way refelcted this. the fact that market odds across bookies/exchange rarely vary by more than 1/2% is purely down to an active market rather than confirming a true reflection of the fair odds.

not sure if that made sense but be interested in your view of the wide range in odds

[robsterling]

Thanks for the reply plopplop, looks like you found a great price on Middlesborough winning tonight too. Only 3.1 on Betfair now, will have to get on your picks early in future!

[happygooner]

Errrrr......well Man U, Reading, Bolton & Boro really did us all a treat there!! And it all started off so well....

Better luck for the next picks. Only way is up after all.

[Matthew]

Originally Posted by happygooner

Errrrr......well Man U, Reading, Bolton & Boro really did us all a treat there!! And it all started off so well....

Better luck for the next picks. Only way is up after all.

You're not wrong - what a total pile of doo-daa

Date Home Away Prediction Odds Bookie Stake Correct Return 39309 Fulham Bolton AW 3.6 Betfair £40.63 N 0 39309 Portsmouth Man Utd AW 1.67 Betfair £40.63 N 0 39309 Reading Chelsea D 4 Betfair £40.63 N 0 39309 Wigan Middlesbrough AW 3.25 Betfair £40.63 N 0

System stats:

ALL HW D AW No of Bets: 7 0 4 3           Staked: £296.84 £0 £174.95 £121.89 Returned: £0 £0 £0 £0 P+L: £-296.84 £0 £-174.95 £-121.89 Strike Rate: 0% 0% 0% 0% Yield: -100% 0% -100% -100%           Avg Back Odds: 3.32 0 3.69 2.84 Avg Win Odds: 0 0 0 0           Each Person: £37.09

[happygooner]

I'm in til the bitter end now (or until I run out of cash haha!), so when do you think Saturday plays will be posted PP?

[London_Calling]

Hi All,

I shall be watching, as usual. Fwiw, I think you're pretty brave to get involved this early. Good luck.