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04-08-2007, 13:04
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| aka plopplop   Join Date: 08 Aug 2006 Location: Nottingham Age: 29
Posts: 604
|  Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Some of you will remember me from last year..... Last years thread (Predicting The English Premier League-using stats-Strike Rate 57.2% - Yield 16.9%) I have calculated the following raft of stats for every match since 2000-2001 season:
I then put this data through a statistical modelling package called KXEN (www.kxen.com). The 4 seasons 2000-2004 are used to build the model, 2004-2006 is used to validate the model and last season (2006-07) is used as a blind test to see how the model would have worked had I used it. Once the best model to describe the data is built, Kxen "to's and fro's" between the best model and the validation sample to come about a model that best describes the data yet is robust enough that it can be used in the real world, a tradeoff. The output from this model is a %age chance of HW / D / AW. In preparation for this upcoming season I have played around with the cutoffs which qualify a bet (the %age diff between my assessment and that of the bookie) to retrospectively fit the best possible result for last season. This worked well last year when I did it midway through the season and then continued with these cutoffs. So, had I used this model last year and used the cutoffs I found (obviously self-fulfilling) I would have observed something in the order of this:
This is based on level stakes £1 per selection. With profit arriving like this:  This is the model I am using going fwd against the old model from last year, again retrospectively fit to achieve the best possible result. As you can see the new model drives greater profit from fewer bets which is an obvious increase in yield(%). I'm intending to use %age staking to the equivalent of 4% of my bank. My bank currently stands at £1,050 (me and 20 mates, £50 each). I am expecting 2 more to send me the cash so by the start of the season my bank should be £1,150. Here's to as good a season as last season  .Any thoughts? Questions? I'd welcome your comments as I am always looking to improve things. Matt | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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04-08-2007, 14:21
| #4 (permalink) |
| Muppet Punter  Join Date: 26 Oct 2004
Posts: 1,942
| Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats quick question mate - do you have it fully automated now ie. you just fill in the date, teams, score, shots etc and it churns out a 1x2 %? do you do this in excel? |
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