Play-off draws '07' - Page 3 - The Punters Lounge

allthethings · 09-05-2007, 21:15

My book not offering these games, but it's looking good...what is your system for picking games to end in draws? I wasn't around for the 2006 thread where perhaps you explained. Thanks, A

Bedlam · 10-05-2007, 20:29

Allthethings, the selection criteria is simply any play-off match. I have been backing play-off draws for a few years, and always finish in profit. Last year was the first time I run it as a thread on PL, in which I used a progressive staking plan when there was a run of games that didn't finish as draws, something I am totally comfortable doing, as the nature of the play-offs mean that we're never far from the next draw. Because of the superb start we've had this year, we possibly won't need progressive staking. There is a case for restricting the selections to first leg matches, as historically, with the cagey nature of these matches, 39% are drawn as opposed to 32% of second legs.

Bedlam · 10-05-2007, 20:42

Next Bet: (Friday)

Yeovil v Nott'm Forest x @ 3.25 (coral) 10pts staked.

Sonix1001 · 10-05-2007, 22:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bedlam

Next Bet: (Friday)

Yeovil v Nott'm Forest x @ 3.25 (coral) 10pts staked.

Anyone knows if this is the first leg?

Bedlam, do you know the % of 0-0 games compared to other draws. That would be intresting.
I suspect that the 0-0 should be like 40-50% of the draws

DeepBlueDevilFish · 10-05-2007, 23:39

Quote:

Anyone knows if this is the first leg?

Yes it's the first leg Sonix.

Sonix1001 · 11-05-2007, 21:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bedlam

Next Bet: (Friday)

Yeovil v Nott'm Forest x @ 3.25 (coral) 10pts staked.

0-2

Hope that tomorrow will be more profitable day

Bedlam · 11-05-2007, 22:14

No luck tonight.

Saturdays Bets:

Southampton v Derby >< @ 3.25 (skybet) 10pts staked.

Bristol Rovers v Lincoln >< @ 3.25 (stanjames) 10pts staked.

Sonix1001 · 12-05-2007, 11:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bedlam

No luck tonight.

Saturdays Bets:

Southampton v Derby >< @ 3.25 (skybet) 10pts staked.

Bristol Rovers v Lincoln >< @ 3.25 (stanjames) 10pts staked.

clarky101 · 12-05-2007, 12:00

Intresting Bedlam, did the same bets in the first round games of the World cups & Euro Championships in the past & did fairly well. Then tried it with cross doubles on correct scores ie no goalscorer & 1-1,until last summer when i showed a small loss. Good luck with this,its looking good & i am following it with intrest.

Sonix1001 · 12-05-2007, 19:58

No luck today but tomorrow never dies

Bedlam · 12-05-2007, 21:15

No worries Soni><, two close games again. More draws are just round the corner!
I've thought about correct scores too Clarky, might have a dabble ne>
Sunday's Bets..

Wolves v WBA 3.25(skybet) 10pts staked

Oldham v Blackpool 3.25(coral) 10pts staked

Braintree v Salisbury 3.25(skybet) 10pts staked

Sonix1001 · 12-05-2007, 21:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bedlam

No worries Soni><, two close games again. More draws are just round the corner!

I've thought about correct scores too Clarky, might have a dabble ne>
Sunday's Bets..

Wolves v WBA 3.25(skybet) 10pts staked

Oldham v Blackpool 3.25(coral) 10pts staked

Braintree v Salisbury 3.25(skybet) 10pts staked

Bedlam · 13-05-2007, 23:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bedlam

Sunday's Bets..

Wolves v WBA 3.25(skybet) 10pts staked

Oldham v Blackpool 3.25(coral) 10pts staked

Braintree v Salisbury 3.25(skybet) 10pts staked

Well the early luck has deserted us, but all three matches were very tight, once again,with one goal being the winning margin in all 3.

state of play

starting bank 200pts
current bank 274pts

still a very healthy profit & draws are due

davidmphill · 13-05-2007, 23:11

Unlucky Bedlam. As you say the draws will for sure come soon.
Bets of luck.

Bedlam · 13-05-2007, 23:23

Thanks David.

Mondays bets

Shrewsbury v MK Dons 3.25 (skybet) 10 pts staked.

Farsley celtic v Hinkley 3.25 (skybet) 10pts staked.

Bedlam · 14-05-2007, 22:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bedlam

Shrewsbury v MK Dons 3.25 (skybet) 10 pts staked.

Farsley celtic v Hinkley 3.25 (skybet) 10pts staked.

A winner tonight, an 89th min winner for Farsley Celtic prevented 2/2.

Bedlam · 14-05-2007, 23:53

Tuesday

Derby v Southampton 3.25(skybet) 10pts staked.

Bedlam · 16-05-2007, 19:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bedlam

Tuesday

Derby v Southampton 3.25(skybet) 10pts staked.

A loser last night, but another very close game & another late-late winner..

Wednesday

WBA v Wolves 3.5 (bet365) 10pts staked

Lincoln v Bristol R 3.25 (bet365) 10pts staked

Bedlam · 16-05-2007, 21:32

Actually, Lincoln v Bristol R isn't untill tomorrow night.

Bedlam · 18-05-2007, 19:42

Very short of time, will catch up & update on Sunday.

Next Bet:

N Forest v Yeovil x @ 3.5 (bet365) 15pts staked

09-05-2007, 21:15	#41 (permalink)
allthethings Legendary Punter Join Date: 02 Nov 2006 Location: In a van down by the river Age: 46 Posts: 1,997	Re: Play-off draws '07' My book not offering these games, but it's looking good...what is your system for picking games to end in draws? I wasn't around for the 2006 thread where perhaps you explained. Thanks, A __________________ "Get on me, Bert...I can't lose!" — Fast Eddie Felson

10-05-2007, 20:29	#42 (permalink)
Bedlam Enigmatic Punter Join Date: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 895 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: Play-off draws '07' Allthethings, the selection criteria is simply any play-off match. I have been backing play-off draws for a few years, and always finish in profit. Last year was the first time I run it as a thread on PL, in which I used a progressive staking plan when there was a run of games that didn't finish as draws, something I am totally comfortable doing, as the nature of the play-offs mean that we're never far from the next draw. Because of the superb start we've had this year, we possibly won't need progressive staking. There is a case for restricting the selections to first leg matches, as historically, with the cagey nature of these matches, 39% are drawn as opposed to 32% of second legs. Last edited by Bedlam; 11-05-2007 at 18:29. Reason: stats were wrong

10-05-2007, 20:42	#43 (permalink)
Bedlam Enigmatic Punter Join Date: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 895 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: Play-off draws '07' Next Bet: (Friday) Yeovil v Nott'm Forest x @ 3.25 (coral) 10pts staked.

11-05-2007, 22:14	#47 (permalink)
Bedlam Enigmatic Punter Join Date: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 895 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: Play-off draws '07' No luck tonight. Saturdays Bets: Southampton v Derby >< @ 3.25 (skybet) 10pts staked. Bristol Rovers v Lincoln >< @ 3.25 (stanjames) 10pts staked.

12-05-2007, 12:00	#49 (permalink)
clarky101 Jonah Punter Join Date: 17 Apr 2006 Location: Bexhill Posts: 1,315	Re: Play-off draws '07' Intresting Bedlam, did the same bets in the first round games of the World cups & Euro Championships in the past & did fairly well. Then tried it with cross doubles on correct scores ie no goalscorer & 1-1,until last summer when i showed a small loss. Good luck with this,its looking good & i am following it with intrest. __________________ i came into this world with nothing & pretty much still got it !!!!!!!!!

12-05-2007, 19:58	#50 (permalink)
Sonix1001 Sonix Join Date: 16 Oct 2006 Location: Sweden Age: 39 Posts: 307	Re: Play-off draws '07' No luck today but tomorrow never dies

12-05-2007, 21:15	#51 (permalink)
Bedlam Enigmatic Punter Join Date: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 895 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: Play-off draws '07' No worries Soni><, two close games again. More draws are just round the corner! I've thought about correct scores too Clarky, might have a dabble ne> Sunday's Bets.. Wolves v WBA 3.25(skybet) 10pts staked Oldham v Blackpool 3.25(coral) 10pts staked Braintree v Salisbury 3.25(skybet) 10pts staked

13-05-2007, 23:11	#54 (permalink)
davidmphill 260408 Join Date: 09 Feb 2005 Location: Colorado. Age: 36 Posts: 22,374 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 4	Re: Play-off draws '07' Unlucky Bedlam. As you say the draws will for sure come soon. Bets of luck. __________________ Gwlad, gwlad, pleidiol wyf i'm gwlad, Tra mor yn fur i'r bur hoff bau, O bydded i'r heniaith barhau.

13-05-2007, 23:23	#55 (permalink)
Bedlam Enigmatic Punter Join Date: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 895 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: Play-off draws '07' Thanks David. Mondays bets Shrewsbury v MK Dons 3.25 (skybet) 10 pts staked. Farsley celtic v Hinkley 3.25 (skybet) 10pts staked. Last edited by Bedlam; 13-05-2007 at 23:24.

14-05-2007, 23:53	#57 (permalink)
Bedlam Enigmatic Punter Join Date: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 895 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: Play-off draws '07' Tuesday Derby v Southampton 3.25(skybet) 10pts staked.

16-05-2007, 21:32	#59 (permalink)
Bedlam Enigmatic Punter Join Date: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 895 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: Play-off draws '07' Actually, Lincoln v Bristol R isn't untill tomorrow night.

18-05-2007, 19:42	#60 (permalink)
Bedlam Enigmatic Punter Join Date: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 895 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: Play-off draws '07' Very short of time, will catch up & update on Sunday. Next Bet: N Forest v Yeovil x @ 3.5 (bet365) 15pts staked

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