Play-off draws '07'

[Bedlam]

Another loser tonight, but what a match!

Net bet:

Blackpool v Oldham 2.4 (bluesq) 22pts staked.

[Sonix1001]

Originally Posted by Bedlam

Another loser tonight, but what a match!

Net bet:

Blackpool v Oldham 2.4 (bluesq) 22pts staked.

[Bedlam]

I've been betting on play-off draws for a few years now & I've never known a poor run like this one. A draw must be very close!!

Morecombe v E#eter. 2.5(betfair) 33pts staked.

[Sonix1001]

Originally Posted by Bedlam

I've been betting on play-off draws for a few years now & I've never known a poor run like this one. A draw must be very close!!

Morecombe v E#eter. 2.5(betfair) 33pts staked.

Bedlam, be carefull. Sometimes systems just breaks after runing stable for a good time . Somethig like this happend to me during the early 90's. System was runing stable for few years and then just stoped to work for some reason. I lost quit a lot of money back then. I think it's always important to have exit criteria. If somethink starts to behave strange just leave it for some time to see what's going on. It's better to take some loss and come back later when everything is back to normal again. Sometimes it will never get back to the same stage it was before.
The most important thing is not to loose money.

This year is little strange because almost all of your wins come in one line in the begining and now you are colecting the loses. Last year was more random.

I'm still in profit from your system, thanks Bedlam for sharing and hope that the turn around will come today.

[clarky101]

Bedlam,I think the system breaks down when teams NEED to win & the draw is no good.Now due to the unlucky results IMO of the 1st legs of the play-offs,the 2nd legs were never gonna be draws because the losing team from the 1st leg needed to take hold of the game or their season was over ie Yeovil,Southampton etc.....but now i see draws over 90 mins as teams get scared of getting so far & losing not just the game but MONEY as well,so.... we will be back on track ... famous last words

[Bedlam]

Thanks for your input Chaps. The beauty of a system based on the play-offs is that their limited time span each year means that any loss will be limited, and of course the first rule of betting is not to bet with money you can't afford to lose. I am prepared to lose my start bank, but have so far always made a profit on play-off draws. Anyway Sonix, to walk away now,with just 3 matches left would be tempting fate (cue 3 draws!).

Clarky, there is no doubt that first leg matches are more likely to be draws, but there has always been a fair amount of 2nd leg draws.For every team that needs to win, there is a team that only needs to draw! Sod Law, if I hadn't covered the away legs, they would have reaped draw after draw! But there is definitely a case for only using home legs next year.

[Bedlam]

Going into the final 3 matches, the state of play is..

Starting bank 200pts
current bank 186.5pts

At least one of these will be a draw!...

Bristol Rovers v Shrewsbury 3.25pts(skybet) 50pts staked

Blackpool v Yeovil 3.25(skybet) 50 pts staked

WBA v Derby 3.25(skybet) 50pts staked.

I'm away for the Bank Holiday weekend, so I have to back all three to equal stakes now!

[Sonix1001]

Originally Posted by Bedlam

Going into the final 3 matches, the state of play is..

Starting bank 200pts
current bank 186.5pts

At least one of these will be a draw!...

Bristol Rovers v Shrewsbury 3.25pts(skybet) 50pts staked

Blackpool v Yeovil 3.25(skybet) 50 pts staked

WBA v Derby 3.25(skybet) 50pts staked.

I'm away for the Bank Holiday weekend, so I have to back all three to equal stakes now!