Overs based on previous results

[allthethings]

Warning: This is not a system like jtw1's excellent unders system. I don't pay attention to league averages of overs, and I tend to discount h2h results except in certain local derbies. I will occasionally list a play in spite of the statistics, just because the line seems unusually low.

But I generally have good results playing overs...like everybody I have my ups and downs. I do follow certain guidelines:

Statistics: I prefer looking at home/away goal numbers first, recent form second. Not just how many overs a team has had, but how consistent the scoring and conceding is. I much prefer to see a team with no clean sheets rather than one that wins 5-0 once a game gets out of hand. I generally won't play on a game where one team plays lots of overs at home but the away team plays lots of unders away. I also have found that it is better when the teams are not both at the top of the table; it gives you more chances to win when one team is capable of blowing the other team out as well as the match being competitive...4-1 as well as 2-1.

Lines: I usually shy away from matches with poor odds, even if I think the overs look good. The reason is that no matter what I think, or what I think I think, each game is a 50-50 proposition, so being paid $10 on a $20 bet is a losing proposition in the long run.

Feel: I don't believe in recent form too much. If all games played out according to recent form there would be no upsets. So sometimes, not often, I will play on overs just because something seems wrong about the line.

Situation: I won't play certain games late in the season when motivation is suspect. I will sometimes lay off based on injury and suspension news, although this is rare: Teams are deeper than people give them credit for. I wish I had back all the money I've lost following someone's tip in here that so-and-so team has seven missings and had to borrow players from the local school to fill the roster...these teams more often than not play the same game as if the roster was complete.

Anyway, on to Day 1. Forgive the times noted here, that's U.S. Central Time, six or seven hours (and centuries) behind you.

Saturday's picks:

Norway 1st Divisjon
Soccer - Molde/Ham Kam - total Over 3 (+104)
for the regulation time held on May 12 at 9:00am [pending] 0-2 FT LOSS

This one is breaking two rules: The teams are in 1st and 2nd, and Molde's home stats and Ham Kam's away stats are so far not that great in terms of producing and conceding goals. But overall these teams are very powerful and both will certainly score here...I'll be honest, it's likely going to end a push, but it's a good line for that fourth goal.

Denmark SAS Ligaen
Soccer - Midtjylland/Brondby - total Over 2½ (-132)
for the regulation time held on May 12 at 10:00am [pending] 1-1 FT LOSS

Brondby hasn't won a game on away in over a year, but is a capable team, though coming off conceding 9 goals in their last three. Midtylland's typical result at home is 3-1.

Germany 1.Bundesliga
Soccer - Aachen/Wolfsburg - total Over 3 (+100)
for the regulation time held on May 12 at 8:30am [pending] 2-2 FT WIN

Aachen is capable of surprises, but not lately; they're giving up 3 and 4 goals every game as they plummet on the table. The main thing here is both teams concede many goals and the teams are both in danger of being relegated...this could be one of those 3-2 games.

Germany 1.Bundesliga
Soccer - Bielefeld/Hannover - total Over 2½ (-139)
for the regulation time held on May 12 at 8:30am [pending] 3-1 FT WIN

Hannover has a pretty good defense, which worries me a little, but Bielefeld's last four games have had 3, 5, 5 and 6 goals...they simply have been attacking constantly to try to pull themselves clear of relegation. Hannover is in contention for a top spot, so I expect a very open game.

BOL all

[aliando]

good luck mate!

[rich46]

Second that,good luck!!

[allthethings]

Thanks guys. Here are Sunday's plays, since I won't be around:

Denmark 1st
Soccer - Koge/Herfolge - total Over 3 (-110)
for the regulation time held on May 13 at 6:00am [pending] 1-1 FT LOSS

Denmark 1st
Soccer - Lyngby/Fredericia - total Over 3 (-116)
for the regulation time held on May 13 at 8:00am [pending] 0-2 FT LOSS

Norway 1st
Soccer - Haugesund/Skeid - total Over 3 (+101)
for the regulation time held on May 13 at 11:00am [pending] 1-1 FT LOSS

Norway 1st
Soccer - Tromsdalen/Kongsvinger - total Over 3 (+103)
for the regulation time held on May 13 at 11:00am [pending] 2-2 FT WIN

Since I didn't mention it before, all plays are 1 unit unless I go batty...but I'll let you know if that occurs.

[Darren]

Good luck mate

[allthethings]

Not a great first weekend, and all hell's been breaking loose at work here, so haven't had time to post. But an hour ago I decided to pay the big juice on

Soccer - Shrewsbury Town/MK Dons - total Over 2 (-192)
for the regulation time held on May 14 at 1:45pm [pending]

which unfortuantely is now O 2.5 and about to start in ten minutes. Sorry about that, BOL all.

[allthethings]

I will try to keep the pissing and moaning to a minimum here, but I had an opportunity before I left for the weekend to take the overs in the English playoffs, and held off because I had already committed to Scandinavia...all overs, and now this just horrid match in which neither team is doing anything, the only one to feature no offense at all.

I did get an unposted overs to come in today (Landskrona in Sweden, which I won't count here), but this is not the way I wanted to start here. Oh well, hope to get on the comeback trail soon.

Posted: 3-6, -3.1 units

[allthethings]

Wednesday, 2 units:

Norway 1st
Soccer - Ham Kam/Bryne - total Over 3 (-114)
for the regulation time held on May 16 at 11:00am [pending] 2-1 FT PUSH.

3rd vs 4th place in the young season, and some amazing numbers even by Norwegian standards. Ham-Kam, the up-and-coming team, has gone over in four of six, and way over at home: Home games have ended 5-1, 2-3 and 3-3. The more established Bryne have three away games of 1-2, 0-4 and 4-1, and have finished 2-1, 3-1 and 3-0 at home. Few clean sheets on either side, so the -114 is a relatively good line.


Others I considered but won't take:
Bodo-Glimt-Tromsdalen, only available to me at O 3.5, too high
Brann-Fredrickstad (Tipp), at -145 too expensive
Rosenborg-Start (Tipp), a lot of 1-1s in there for Start and the line is O 3...afraid I'd be rooting for a push late as I was over the weekend.

BOL all

[allthethings]

Adding:

Soccer - Kongsvinger/Haugesund - total Over 2½ (-156)
for the regulation time held on May 16 at 11:00am [pending] 0-2 FT LOSS.

A lot of juice, and the h2h doesn't look great, but Haugesund has no clean sheets either way, with most games ending 2-1 or 1-2, while Kongsvinger after two low-scoring games to open the season is coming off four high-scoring matches just as they did last year. The 2.5 line is the only one listed for the 1st Divisjon today, and I'm thinking it's a gift. Hoping, I mean.

[allthethings]

Two scoreless second halfs, one second-half goal disallowed each for Ham Kam and Kongsvinger...that, my friends, is how you lose 2 units instead of getting the +3-unit sweep.

[allthethings]

Soccer - HIK/Kolding - total Over 3 (+107)
for the regulation time held on May 19 at 8:00am [pending] 2-2 FT WIN

Soccer - Aarhus FC/Koge - total Over 3 (+111)
for the regulation time held on May 19 at 8:00am [pending] 3-0 FT PUSH

Playing these for one unit each...both games feature away teams that score and concede on the road against home teams that so far sicne the break have dictated a slower pace. The outcomes will really depend on the home teams scoring first I think...I am not all that confident frankly, as things have not started well in this thread, but Kolding has shown it can score three goals in 10 minutes after a scoreless 70 repeatedly, while Koge has proved equally explosive. I love betting the overs in this league and feel that getting better than even money on these teams and not having the line at 3.5 is sort of a must-bet.

[allthethings]

I've been winning the unposted bets, winning the posted ones...typical. Got one for tomorrow, 1 unit:

Sweden Superettan
Soccer - Falkenberg/Sundsvall - total Over 2½ (-110)
for the regulation time held on May 21 at 12:00pm [pending] 2-1 FT WIN

F has four of five overs, S three of five. Falkenberg is not a good team and their two 2-2 home games came against two of the weakest teams, so perhaps Sundsvall will dictate the pace and pin me with another loss...but I'll stick with the stats on this one...surely if Sundsvall concede they won't settle for a draw. They've started the season well and need to beat up on bad teams if they want to stay there.

[allthethings]

Posted: 5-7-2, -3.1 units

[allthethings]

Thursday, jumping on the good lines.

Denmark 1st
Soccer - Koge/Aarhus AGF - total Over 3 (+103)
for the regulation time held on May 24 at 12:00pm [pending] 2-3 FT WIN

Soccer - Thisted/Kolding - total Over 3 (+101)
for the regulation time held on May 24 at 12:00pm [pending] 1-5 FT WIN

All over these two...among the two best matchups in this league for overs...

Kolding moving up the table by playing defense, tends to go 70 scoreless and then score three in 10 minutes. This season Kolding has 3+ goals in 78 percent of their away games, Thisted 72 percent at home. H2H Kolding beat Thisted 3-2 earlier this season at home.

Koge in second place, AGF in 3rd. Koge has 82 percent home games of 3+ goals, AGF 67 percent of away games. H2H Koge won at AGF 2-1 earlier this season.

I am absolutely stunned these games are even money for O 3.

[allthethings]

Adding:

Denmark SAS
Soccer - Midtjylland/Aalborg - total Over 2½ (-133)
for the regulation time held on May 24 at 12:00pm [pending] 2-1 FT WIN

It's two games from the end of the season and this game will probably determine who takes second and who third. I say probably because a draw wouldn't settle anything. In any case, both teams average 2 goals a game at home, and each has kept one clean sheet home/away since October, stretching back eight or nine games. A 1-1 is possible, but 2-1 more likely, and the odds aren't too bad.

[allthethings]

3-0 today

Updated:
8-7-2, +2.4 units