Over/under -2.91units, 124 bets

Have developed a new way of making selections in this market and im gonna test it here for a while.

Im not putitng any money on these selections (i was with the other ones) but this method is a lot more scientific than the last so hopefully more successful.

I have tested it over 1 weekend's results (weekend of 8th/9th feb) in Prem and Division 1 games and from 21 games it would have thrown up 11 bets and 10 no-bets.

OfThe 11 bets, 8 were winners (7out of 9 overs and 1 out of 2 unders).

I was gonna backtest it over a few more weeks but i find it more fun to just test it here.

Back later with this weekends selections.

ok here we go ...

games are divided into 3 categories - no bet, medium bet, strong bet.

staking is 1 unit on medium bets and 2 units on strong bets.

Included division one after all -
(all odds from bet 365)


22nd-24th February 2003

16 bets from 22 games




Strong Bets (overs)

Charlton v Aston Villa 2units @ 2.05
Burnley v Derby 2 units @ 1.72
Leicester v Wimbledon 2 units @ 1.8
Portsmouth v Gillingham 2units @ 1.72
Sheff Utd v Norwich 2 units @ 1.9

Strong Bets (unders)

Walsall v Watford 2 units @ 1.8

Medium Bets (overs)

Chelsea v Blackburn 1 unit @ 1.8
Man City v Arsenal 1 unit @ 1.8
Sunderland v Middlesboro 1 unit @ 2.3
Birmingham v Liverpool 1 unit @ 2.05
Tottenham v Fulham 1 unit @ 1.85
Crystal Palace v Sheff Wed 1 unit @ 1.8
Ipswich v Grimsby 1 unit @ 1.66
Preston v Wolves 1 unit @ 1.72
Reading v Rotherham 1 unit @ 1.83

Medium Bets (unders)

Coventry v Bradford 1 unit @ 1.83



Starting Bank : 100 units
Staked : 22 units
Current Bank : 78 units

cheers:rolleyes

a pretty good first weekend (considering the situation with 5 minutes to go on saturday), with 16 bets and 10 winners (1 result to come)

it was looking quite poor at one stage but i was saved dramatically on saturday with ...

2 goals in the last 3 minutes of charlton-villa
3 goals in last 4 minutes of chelsea-blackburn

also suprising was the fact that sunderland-middlesboro was an 'over' and it came in - i reckoned that one had 0-0 written all over it (even said so to a mate who backed 0-0 - felt slightly guilty )

anyway ...

22 units staked - returns 24.57

----------------------------

startin bank : 100 units
current bank : 102.57 units
profit (loss) : 2.57 units
units staked : 22
yield : 11.68%
strike rate : 16 bets, 10 winners - 62.5%
average odds : 1.85

Sorry to digress a little from systems, but the last 0-0 Boro played was the first game of the season, so you should have known a little better . The Racing Post said 0-0 too!>: Boro have played less defensively all season than the last 2 seasons, but have suffered because of a poor forward line especially away from home. The non-performing forwards were not playing on Saturday. They also haven't kept a clean sheet since October in any game, as the defenders have been encouraged to go forward, also Ehiogu missing since NYD hasn't helped defence. Ehiogu likely to be back on Saturday. As a general rule I would tend to go over 2.5 on Boro matches this season. Their defenders have been a first goalscorer on alot of occasions.

david, if i can throw my twopenneth in..I would discard the selections with odds below 1.9...you are really looking for an Even money shot with 2.5 Goals.

Obviously it will take more searching but if you are patient and "ask" for 1.9 or greater on Betfair it is surprising what you can get....in the "long run" it will make a massive difference.

Taking odds of 1.66 or 1.72, I believe is gonna catch you over time....good luck.

appreciate the input. im not actually putting any money on this system and just testing it for now.

i was initially going to use betfair prices but felt it would be beter to use a bookies prices because you will be able to always (or nearly always) get them whereas betfair prices depend on the market (if that makes sense). :rolleyes

im gonna continue with it for now, just using all games the system throws up -whatever the odds (unless they are ridiculously small) to see the outcomes.

at average odds of 1.85, i reckon a 54% strike rate breaks even so if i can maintain that should break even.

so as i said, appreciate the input, but i'll continue with all selections for now.

cheers

25th February 2003

Medium Bet (over)

Wolves - Watford 1 unit @ 1.8 :rolleyes

Medium Bet (under)

Juventus - Manchester United 1 unit @ 1.9 :rolleyes

:rolleyes

26th February 2003

Strong bets - under

Newcastle - Leverkusen 2units @ 2.1 :rolleyes
Valencia - Roma 2 units @ 1.8 :rolleyes

Medium bets - over

Ajax - Arsenal 1 unit @ 1.95 :rolleyes
Inter - Barcelona 1 unit @ 1.95 :rolleyes

6 units staked

not very good today - 4 losers

well think we can safely say this system does not work on the european games. i had my doubts as to whether it would given that part of my analysis depends on head to heads.

still, shall continue with it for a couple more weks but from now on, i shall split the analysis into two sections - domestic and european because i beleive the englsih premiership and division one games can be very profitable.

Domestic Games

Starting Bank - 100 units
Current Bank - 101.57 units
Profit (Loss) - 1.57 units
Units Staked - 23 units
Yield - 7%
Number of bets - 17
Strike Rate - 59% (10/17)
Average Odds - 1.85

----------------------------------------

European Games

Starting Bank - 100 units
Current Bank - 93 units
Profit (Loss) - (7 units)
Unit Staked - 7 units
Yield - (100%)
Number of bets - 7
Stirke Rate - 0% (0/7)
Average Odds - 1.94

1st - 3rd March


Strong Bets (over)

Middlesboro - Everton 2units @ 1.95 :rolleyes
Arsenal v Charlton 2units @ 1.66 :rolleyes


Strong Bets (under)

Southampton v West Brom 2units @ 1.7


Medium Bets (over)

Fulham v Sunderland 1 unit @ 2.05 :rolleyes


Medium Bets (under)

West Ham v Spurs 1 unit @ 1.9



a loss of 2.7 units on the weekend :rolleyes

4th - 5th March


Strong bets (overs)

Gillingham - Nottm Forest, 2 units @ 1.9
Wimbledon - Portsmouth, 2 units @ 1.72
Middlesboro - Newcastle, 2 units @ 1.95
Man.Utd - Leeds, 2 units @ 1.8

Medium Bets (over)

Bradford - Leicester, 1 unit @ 1.8
Rotherham v Walsall, 1 unit @ 1.9

Strong Bets (under)

Millwall - Burnley, 2 units @ 1.83

Medium Bets (under)

Norwich - Reading, 1 unit @ 1.72
Stoke - Brighton, 1 unit @ 1.72



14 units staked.

Starting Bank - 100 units
Current Bank - 102.81

A great midweek .... 6 bets up out of 9 (including 4 out of 5 strong bets)

Domestic Games

Starting Bank - 100 units
Current Bank - 102.81 units
Profit (Loss) - 2.81 units
Units Staked - 45 units
Yield - 6%
Number of bets - 31
Strike Rate - 58% (18/31)
Average Odds - 1.84

8th - 10th March 2003

Strong Bets (over)

Ipswich - Stoke, 2 units @ 1.66
Preston - Derby, 2 units @ 1.8
Arsenal - Chelsea, 2 units @ 1.8
Sheff.Utd - Leeds Utd, 2 units @ 2.00

Strong Bets (under)

Watford - Burnley, 2 units @ 1.9

Medium Bets (over)

Brighton - Rotherham, 1 unit @ 1.83
Nottm Forest - Grimsby, 1 unit @ 1.72

Medium Bets (under)

Bradford - Crystal Palace, 1 unit @ 1.83
Coventry - Wimbledon, 1 unit @ 1.8
Southampton - Wolves, 1 unit @ 1.9

15 units staked
:rolleyes

[swampster]

are you sure about Preston v Derby ?? I've got them under, both sides not exactly firing them in, both sides been involved in 1-0ers recently, and lots of last-minute goals. just a thought...

i'll let you know tomorrow night

no, ive got preston-derby as an over - second highest rated over this weekend!!

told ya

incidentally, Ipswich, Stoke gets the highest rating so far for an over game!!! So that one should be a shooooo - in :rolleyes

hmmm, highest 'over' rating becomes a 0-0 draw!!!! dearie me!!

Domestic Games

Starting Bank - 100 units
Current Bank - 102.43 units
Profit (Loss) - 2.43 units
Units Staked - 60 units
Yield - 4%
Number of bets - 41
Strike Rate - 56% (23/41)
Average Odds - 1.84

slight loss on the weekend but 1 unit profit on "strong" bets.

we shall see this week whether the european games really work with the system.

:rolleyes

11th - 12th March

Strong Bets (over)

Gillingham - Wimbledon, 2 units @ 1.8
Barcelona - Leverkusen, 2 units @ 1.61
Inter milan - Newcastle, 2 units @ 1.9
Reading - Wolves, 2 units @ 1.83

Strong Bets (under)

Ajax - valencia, 2 units @ 1.8
Real Madrid - Milan, 2 units @ 1.9

Medium Bets (over)

Juventus - Deportivo, 1 unit @ 2.00
Man.Utd - Basel, 1 unit @ 1.70

Medium Bets (under)

Crystal Palace - Ipswich, 1 unit @ 1.8
Sheff.Utd - Burnley, 1 unit @ 1.83


16 units staked
14.8 units returned
:rolleyes

15th - 16th March 2003

Strong Bets (overs)

Blackburn - Arsenal, 2 units @ 1.95
**Brighton - Nottm Forest, 2 units @ 1.83
**Gillingham - Rotherham, 2 units @ 1.8
**Portsmouth - Wolves, 2 units @ 1.72
Reading - C.Palace, 2 units @ 1.9
Sheff.Wed - Ipswich, 2 units @ 1.83
Stoke - Sheff.Utd, 2 units @ 1.9
Walsall - Burnley, 2 units @ 1.83
**Man City - Birmingham, 2 units @ 1.85

Medium bets (overs)

Charlton - Newcastle, 1 unit @ 1.85
Everton - West Ham, 1 unit @ 1.9

Medium Bets (unders)

Aston Villa - Man.Utd, 1 unit @ 1.9
Leeds Utd - Middlesboro, 1 unit @ 1.66
Sunderland - Bolton, 1unit @ 1.7
Grimsby - Watford, 1 unit @ 1.8


wow!!!!! we shall really see whether this system i worth its salt now!!!!

24 units staked - 9 'strong' overs!

expect barrowloads of goals (particularly in division 1) this weekend

( for the record, the *'d games give the highest rating, and i am going to play these in a 4 or more goals yank!!! )

been doing some analysis of this system so far - will post the results sometime in the next few days - probably after this weekends matches.