Over/Under 2.5 goals system based on computer program

[ozangumus]

www.soccerforecast.com opened the 2005/2006 season with new design and new additions.

This year program also calculates over/under 2.5 goals probabilities.

Rising Software has been developing for more than two years and using a database of more than 190.000 matches.

Wep page will be updated every Monday night.

There are percentages from all matches from 10 leagues. These leagues are : England, Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Netherlands, Turkey, Portugal, Belgiumi, Greece.

After this time I will write my program's some tips here.

You can ask me whatever you wonder about the system.

Also thanks to some moderators which invited me here.

For this week I have 14 under tips.
--------------------------------------------------
Manchester City - Liverpool (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
Wigan - Tottenham (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Everton - Newcastle (Under 2.5 goals) 1.75
Real Betis - Cadiz (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Zaragoza - Sevilla (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
Getafe - Malaga (Under 2.5 goals) 1.75
Saint Etienne - Bordeaux (Under 2.5 goals) 1.47
Marseille - Monaco (Under 2.5 goals) 1.55
Toulouse - Ajaccio (Under 2.5 goals) 1.55
Nantes - Strasbourg (Under 2.5 goals) 1.47
Denizlispor - Genclerbirligi (Under 2.5 goals) 1.90
Nacional - Braga (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Larisa - Aigaleo (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Ionikos - Atromitos (Under 2.5 goals) 1.60
--------------------------------------------------

[spreadman]

Ozangamus....not sure if you intended to provide a weekly update and running bank/ performance of how your tips are doing, but it would be useful to fellow punters if you could do this.

Good luck with your system,...... unders/ overs can be backed not only on the fixed odds market, but also traded on the spread betting markets....often at a better return, if accurate.

I think that the multi-national stats. on your website will be very useful to many of the punters here in the PL. Well done, Mr. O., and to the mods for inviting you here....

[georgej]

Looks interesting.

Saw this site http://www.totomaster.com/ a while back and meant to look more into this, but never got round to it.

Can you tell us how far back your data goes and if it is progressive?
(ie is it all the past performances and allfuture ones will be added to this, or is it say past 4/5 years and in a years time the stuff 5 years ago will not influence the program).

I'll try to understand all this now. oh yes, and
(Everton v Newcastle might be a bit close to call. methinks 1-2 final score)

[ozangumus]

Originally Posted by spreadman

If you intended to provide a weekly update and running bank/ performance of how your tips are doing, but it would be useful to fellow punters if you could do this.

I will make something like this. After matches ended I will write here which bets are won which are loss. How much paid and how much earned. (1 Unit stake for each) Also there will be total paid since start and total eanred since start part.

Originally Posted by georgej

Can you tell us how far back your data goes and if it is progressive?

There are data of last 15 years of England Premier League and 12 years of Spain Primera Division and 50 years of Italy, ext... Of course by the time data will start to loss its influence on current power of teams. However these data are important too because of some reasons. I gave all the data I can find in web to my program. And still searching for more. It is very important. Do you know any web page where can I find results of 70s - 80s of England, Spain, Germany, ext leagues. I know soccerway and rsssf and used them. And some web pages are selling this data.

Originally Posted by georgej

Everton v Newcastle might be a bit close to call. methinks 1-2 final score.

It's under probability is 63% according to my program and odds are about 1.65. However I am afraid of this tip too. It can be (more) over. But I trusted my program and wrote it as a tip of week in forums and web page. Because it is probably better than me. Only thing it hasn't senses which human has.

[georgej]

Had a quick look and all i could come up with was http://www.soccerbase.com/

seems to have historic data for England but it would take a while to go through it all as it is not in table format. Maybe there is another way to get the data from the site.

good luck

[Hindi]

why are u using over/under bets only your while your program has 1x2 probilities too .

[ozangumus]

Originally Posted by georgej

Had a quick look and all i could come up with was http://www.soccerbase.com/

Thanks, however I know that page and info is not usable here because you can examine matchs team by team not listed like in soccerway.

Originally Posted by Hindi

why are u using over/under bets only your while your program has 1x2 probilities too .

System also works for 1X2 tips. However if league did not completed enought weeks (this number is nearly 10,15) there can be big errors such as 10%s.

Also betting companies do not easily make mistake on calculating 1X2 odds because it is easier than calculating probabilities of over/under. When I ask you, "what is the away win probability in West Ham - Manchester Utd"; you can easily say it is about 50%, however if I ask you over probability it is harder to answer. So winning money from 1X2 tips is harder than over/under tips. Because bookies do not make mistake on 1X2 odds.

In addition to this, penalized players, injuries, mid week matches can easily effect 1X2 probabilities and people who calculate odds for bookies are aware of that. However my program does not have this kind of information. On the other side under/over probabilities are not easily effected from these stuff.

[ozangumus]

Week 1, cash: 100.00@, placing every bet 7.00@, 98.00@ paid, remaining cash 2.00@
----------------------------------------------------------------------
[won, +11,90@] Manchester City - Liverpool (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
[loss] Wigan - Tottenham (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[won, +12,25@] Everton - Newcastle (Under 2.5 goals) 1.75
[won, +11,55@] Real Betis - Cadiz (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[won, +11,90@] Zaragoza - Sevilla (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
[loss] Getafe - Malaga (Under 2.5 goals) 1.75
[won, +10,29@] Saint Etienne - Bordeaux (Under 2.5 goals) 1.47
[loss] Marseille - Monaco (Under 2.5 goals) 1.55
[loss] Toulouse - Ajaccio (Under 2.5 goals) 1.55
[loss] Nantes - Strasbourg (Under 2.5 goals) 1.47
[won, +13,30@] Denizlispor - Genclerbirligi (Under 2.5 goals) 1.90
[won, +11,55@] Nacional - Braga (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[won, +11,55@] Larisa - Aigaleo (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[loss] Ionikos - Atromitos (Under 2.5 goals) 1.60
----------------------------------------------------------------------
94,29@ added to cash, now cash is 96,29@



Week 2, cash: 96.29, placing every bet 9.00@, 90.00 paid, remaining cash: 6.29@
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Blackburn - Everton (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Bielefeld - Schalke (Double Change, Home + Draw) 1.70
Strasbourg - Sochaux (Under 2.5 goals) 1.50
Rizespor - Erciyesspor (Under 2.5 goals) 1.80
Braga - Setubal (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Guimaraes - Leiria (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Amadora - Vicente (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Akratitos - OFI (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Panionios - Xanthi (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Iraklis - Ionikos (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: I want see how is going new added leagues such as SPL, SAS so I am not adding valuebets of these leagues for now, however you can see valuebets of these leagues at www.ozangumus.com/tips.html

[ozangumus]

Week 2, cash: 96.29, placing every bet 9.00@, 90.00 paid, remaining cash: 6.29@
----------------------------------------------------------------------
[won, +14,85@] Blackburn - Everton (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[loss] Bielefeld - Schalke (Double Change, Home + Draw) 1.70
[won, +13,50@] Strasbourg - Sochaux (Under 2.5 goals) 1.50
[loss] Rizespor - Erciyesspor (Under 2.5 goals) 1.80
[won, +14,85@] Braga - Setubal (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[loss] Guimaraes - Leiria (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[won, +14,85@] Amadora - Vicente (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[won, +14,85@] Akratitos - OFI (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[won, +14,85@] Panionios - Xanthi (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[loss] Iraklis - Ionikos (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Week 3, cash: 94.04, placing every bet 5.00@, 90.00 paid, remaining cash: 4.04@
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Charlton - Sunderland (Over 2.5 goals) 2.00
Wolfsburg - Stuttgart (Under 2.5 goals) 1.85
Betis - Espanyol (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Getafe - Racing (Under 2.5 goals) 1.75
Nice - Ajaccio (Under 2.5 goals) 1.55
Sochaux - Metz (Under 2.5 goals) 1.55
Le Mans - Bordeaux (Under 2.5 goals) 1.50
Toulouse - Troyes (Under 2.5 goals) 1.55
Denizlispor - Rizespor (Under 2.5 goals) 1.80
Genclerbirligi - Diyarbakirspor (Under 2.5 goals) 1.85
Utrecht - Groningen (Under 2.5 goals) 2.10
Setubal - Belenenses (Under 2.5 goals) 1.60
Nacional - Maritimo (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Panionios - Atromitos (Under 2.5 goals) 1.60
Ionikos - Aigaleo (Under 2.5 goals) 1.60
Kalamaria - Akratitos (Under 2.5 goals) 1.60
Aberdeen - Dunfermline (Under 2.5 goals) 1.95
Livingston - Dundee United (Under 2.5 goals) 1.85
----------------------------------------------------------------------

[billydilly]

Hi

Just wondering what the total nubers after last weekend.......two last weeks have gone even or just below..

[ozangumus]

Week 3, cash: 94.04, placing every bet 5.00@, 90.00 paid, remaining cash: 4.04@
----------------------------------------------------------------------
[loss] Charlton - Sunderland (Over 2.5 goals) 2.00
[won, +9.25@] Wolfsburg - Stuttgart (Under 2.5 goals) 1.85
[won, +8.25@] Betis - Espanyol (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[loss] Getafe - Racing (Under 2.5 goals) 1.75
[won, +7.75@] Nice - Ajaccio (Under 2.5 goals) 1.55
[won, +7.75@] Sochaux - Metz (Under 2.5 goals) 1.55
[won, +7.50@] Le Mans - Bordeaux (Under 2.5 goals) 1.50
[loss] Toulouse - Troyes (Under 2.5 goals) 1.55
[won, +9.00@] Denizlispor - Rizespor (Under 2.5 goals) 1.80
[loss] Genclerbirligi - Diyarbakirspor (Under 2.5 goals) 1.85
[won, +10.50@] Utrecht - Groningen (Under 2.5 goals) 2.10
[won, +8.00@] Setubal - Belenenses (Under 2.5 goals) 1.60
[loss] Nacional - Maritimo (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[won, +8.00@] Panionios - Atromitos (Under 2.5 goals) 1.60
[loss] Ionikos - Aigaleo (Under 2.5 goals) 1.60
[loss] Kalamaria - Akratitos (Under 2.5 goals) 1.60
[won, +9.75@] Aberdeen - Dunfermline (Under 2.5 goals) 1.95
[won, +9.25@] Livingston - Dundee United (Under 2.5 goals) 1.85
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Week 4, cash: 99.04, placing every bet 3.00@, 63.00 paid, remaining cash: 36.04@
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Everton - Bolton (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Manchester City - Birmingham (Under 2.5 goals) 1.73
Stuttgart - Schalke (Under 2.5 goals) 1.80
Monchengladbach - Frankfurt (Under 2.5 goals) 2.00
Espanyol - Zaragoza (Under 2.5 goals) 1.75
Athletic - Betis (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
Bordeaux - Nantes (Under 2.5 goals) 1.50
Metz - Nice (Under 2.5 goals) 1.50
Troyes - Sochaux (Under 2.5 goals) 1.50
Ajaccio - Psg (Under 2.5 goals) 1.50
Groningen - Nec (Under 2.5 goals) 1.85
Heracles - Utrecht (Under 2.5 goals) 2.00
Rizespor - Genclerbirligi (Under 2.5 goals) 1.87
Ankaragucu - Sivasspor (Under 2.5 goals) 1.90
Amadora - Leiria (Under 2.5 goals) 1.75
Maritimo - Setubal (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Braga - Academica (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Kallithea - Atromitos (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Akratitos - Xanthi (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
Dundee United - Dunfermline (Under 2.5 goals) 1.85
Livingston - Aberdeen (Under 2.5 goals) 1.80
----------------------------------------------------------------------

[Dzordz]

Ozangamus,

You let machine decide your bets?
Darn not my type of betting.
Although I prefer goal betting to fixed odds.

[ozangumus]

Week 4, cash: 99.04, placing every bet 3.00@, 63.00 paid, remaining cash: 36.04@
----------------------------------------------------------------------
[loss] Everton - Bolton (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[loss] Manchester City - Birmingham (Under 2.5 goals) 1.73
[won +5.80] Stuttgart - Schalke (Under 2.5 goals) 1.80
[loss] Monchengladbach - Frankfurt (Under 2.5 goals) 2.00
[loss] Espanyol - Zaragoza (Under 2.5 goals) 1.75
[won +5.10] Athletic - Betis (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
[won +4.50] Bordeaux - Nantes (Under 2.5 goals) 1.50
[won +4.50] Metz - Nice (Under 2.5 goals) 1.50
[loss] Troyes - Sochaux (Under 2.5 goals) 1.50
[won +4.50] Ajaccio - Psg (Under 2.5 goals) 1.50
[loss] Groningen - Nec (Under 2.5 goals) 1.85
[won +6.00] Heracles - Utrecht (Under 2.5 goals) 2.00
[won +5.61] Rizespor - Genclerbirligi (Under 2.5 goals) 1.87
[won +5.70] Ankaragucu - Sivasspor (Under 2.5 goals) 1.90
[loss] Amadora - Leiria (Under 2.5 goals) 1.75
[won +4.95] Maritimo - Setubal (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[won +4.95] Braga - Academica (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[loss] Kallithea - Atromitos (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[won +5.10] Akratitos - Xanthi (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
[loss] Dundee United - Dunfermline (Under 2.5 goals) 1.85
[won +5.40] Livingston - Aberdeen (Under 2.5 goals) 1.80
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Week 5, cash: 98.15, placing every bet 7.00@, 77.00 paid, remaining cash: 21.15@
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Sevilla - Malaga (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
Atletico Madrid - Valencia (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
Celta Vigo - Real Sociedad (Under 2.5 goals) 1.90
Treviso - Roma (Under 2.5 goals) 1.80
Empoli - Messina (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
Cagliari - Udinese (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Siena - Inter (Under 2.5 goals) 2.00
Belenenses - Vicente (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Benfica - Ferreira (Under 2.5 goals) 1.80
Braga - Sporting (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
Maritimo - Academica (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
----------------------------------------------------------------------

[PompeyPunt]

Keep up the good work Ozan, and like i said in my mail to you, i hope your site gains more and more popularity like it deserves in 2006

[ozangumus]

Thanks PompeyPunt,
Before popularity of web page I hope my cash exceeds 100 Units as soon as possible I am about 100 Units for nearly one month here. However day by day program has been developing, it will be better.

[ioannis2005]

A great effort Ozan!Perhaps i could help you win more using your own predictions

I have been playing with your system 6 times and i made a really good profit.i usually don't follow your tips only.

I play with a bigger number of bookmakers than you (15) and also i play more games than these you display on your tips part.

I guess this way it is easier to increase your bankroll.

I could post the games i played since i started using your program if you wish.

Thank you for helping me win.

Keep up the good work!

[ozangumus]

Thanks for your interest ioannis, bBecause developing program takes my time a lot I cannot search for winning strategies. If you find a way it becames very valuable for us. Can you share with us here.

[ozangumus]

Week 5, cash: 98.15, placing every bet 7.00@, 77.00 paid, remaining cash: 22.15@
----------------------------------------------------------------------
[loss] Sevilla - Malaga (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
[won +11.90] Atletico Madrid - Valencia (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
[won +13.30] Celta Vigo - Real Sociedad (Under 2.5 goals) 1.90
[won +12.60] Treviso - Roma (Under 2.5 goals) 1.80
[loss] Empoli - Messina (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
[loss] Cagliari - Udinese (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[won +14.00] Siena - Inter (Under 2.5 goals) 2.00
[won +11.55] Belenenses - Vicente (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[won +12.60] Benfica - Ferreira (Under 2.5 goals) 1.80
[loss] Braga - Sporting (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65
[loss] Maritimo - Academica (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Week 6, cash: 97.10, placing every bet 10.00@, 80.00 paid, remaining cash: 17.10@
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cadiz - Racing (Under 2.5 / 2.0 goals) 1.95 [pinnacle]
Treviso - Lazio (Under 2.5 goals) 1.75 [eurobet]
Ascoli - Juventus (Under 2.5 goals) 2.00 [pinnacle]
Bordeaux - Lens (Under 2.5 / 2.0 goals) 1.70 [bet365]
Monaco - Lyon (Under 2.5 goals) 1.65 [omnibet]
Braga - Guimaraes (Under 2.5 goals) 1.70 [eurobet]
Sparta - Twente (Under 2.5 goals) 2.00 [bet365]
Akratitos - Aigaleo (Under 2. goals) 1.60 [gamebookers]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

[ioannis2005]

Hello again Ozan! You asked me for my strategy.The strategy is that i play too many games with good odds from bookmakers.Playing many games helps to come near the predicted percentages of your program.So, if I play 100 games that your program gives 65% chance i expect to hit 64 or 66 of them.I hope i made a point here. My betting history so far (Games played, (Wins-Losses-Voids), Unit gain) 1) 15 (10 - 5) +1.5695 2) 15 (12 - 2 - 1) +7.732 3) 15 (9 - 6) +0.23 4) 38 (30 - 7 - 1) +15.239 5) 12 (7 - 5) +1.686 6) 36 (20 - 15 - 1) +1.0685 7) 30 (13 - 17) -8.2 8) 29 (17 - 9 - 3) +4.458 Overall until now 190 games played Unit gain:+12.52% And one question Ozan.Which league has the smaller error at your predictions? Thank you again!

[ioannis2005]

(Games played, (Wins-Losses-Voids), Unit gain) 1) 15 (10 - 5) +1.5695 2) 15 (12 - 2 - 1) +7.732 3) 15 (9 - 6) +0.23 4) 38 (30 - 7 - 1) +15.239 5) 12 (7 - 5) +1.686 6) 36 (20 - 15 - 1) +1.0685 7) 30 (13 - 17) -8.2 8) 29 (17 - 9 - 3) +4.458 Overall until now 190 games played Unit gain:+12.52% And one question Ozan.Which league has the smaller error at your predictions? Thank you again!