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Old 21-10-2006, 15:00   #1 (permalink)
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Default "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

Yet another hijacking of Danny Cash's system, hope you don't mind mate !

Danny obviously has a formula for selecting his tips but I'm going to select my tips on a very straight forward basis, the chances of 0-0 are obviously very high hence the odds, so what the are chances of team having 2 0-0's in a row, we are about to find out!

I'm just going to trial it at the moment and see how it go's, due to time I'm going to manage to put the odds up here but I'll go on the basis of staking 50 points on each game in question, games for today are as follows;

Everton v SHEFF UTD

LUTON V Leeds

Plymouth v BURNLEY

Preston v HULL

SOUTHEND V Ipswich

BRADFORD V Scunthorpe

Brighton v NORTHAMPTON

Lincoln v ROCHDALE


Just noticed I missed Wigan v MAN CITY, thought it was tomorrow !

Only one I've got real money on is Plymouth v Burnely

Starting bank 1000, 400 staked.

Cheers,

Garman

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Last edited by Garman; 23-10-2006 at 21:58. Reason: Updating results
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Old 21-10-2006, 17:32   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

Good luck Garman, and no I don't mind at all! I find the whole 0-0 laying intriuging, so the more systems the merrier!!

You may be suprised at consecutive 0-0's they do crop up, but the question is...how often??!

I shall follow with interest matey
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Old 21-10-2006, 22:57   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

The chance of a match ending 0-0 does not change because the previous match ended 0-0. Just like tossing a coin is 50 / 50 regardless of the previous toss being heads or tails. Sounds like a classic case of gamblers fallacy. Sorry mate.

It's not that difficult to backcheck using the data from www.football-data.co.uk for example.
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Old 22-10-2006, 12:19   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

In fact, some people would say that if a team had a 0-0 then it is showing a bad attack, and it is more likely to finish 0-0 again, but this depends on many variables.
I won't put you off, I'll just wish you good luck, who knows, sometimes unexpected things do happen.

Good Luck!
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Old 23-10-2006, 21:57   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

Yet another hijacking of Danny Cash's system, hope you don't mind mate !

Danny obviously has a formula for selecting his tips but I'm going to select my tips on a very straight forward basis, the chances of 0-0 are obviously very high hence the odds, so what the are chances of team having 2 0-0's in a row, we are about to find out!

I'm just going to trial it at the moment and see how it go's, due to time I'm going to manage to put the odds up here but I'll go on the basis of staking 50 points on each game in question, games for today are as follows;

Everton v SHEFF UTD

LUTON V Leeds

Plymouth v BURNLEY

Preston v HULL

SOUTHEND V Ipswich

BRADFORD V Scunthorpe

Brighton v NORTHAMPTON

Lincoln v ROCHDALE


Just noticed I missed Wigan v MAN CITY, thought it was tomorrow !

Only one I've got real money on is Plymouth v Burnely

Starting bank 1000, 400 staked.

Cheers,

Garman





Thanks for the input lads, "gamblers fallacy" well maybe, but as I said it was just another angle on what has proved to be a successful system for Dannycash.

One loser out of nine so seems I've been proved wrong and to make matters worse it was the only one that I had real money on, typical !! But if I'd had all the games on obviously my losses wouldn't have been as severe but it's early days so will see how it develops over a period of time.

As I didn't get the chance to pull in proper odds for these games I will start for "real" from next week, just going to stick to league games, English Premiership through to Conference, I may consider the Scottish Premeirship as well but will decide later on.

Cheers,

GM
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Old 23-10-2006, 22:02   #6 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

Good luck with this, will be following with interest
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Old 23-10-2006, 23:19   #7 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

If it keeps up like this - just turn the tables. Start backing teams for 0-0 if they played 0-0 the match before... as mentioned earlier, a 0-0 indicates a OK defence and maybe a less than OK attack, and that might repeat itself
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Old 23-10-2006, 23:44   #8 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

I've been doing this bet myself on the betfair challenge, titled 20-10000 by backing one goal or more, or something to that effect. I've done 83 bets in the last 2 weeks with 82 winners. IMO the key is to generally look for games where both the home and away team can both score and concede goals.
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Old 24-10-2006, 00:05   #9 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

Another interesting factor that one of the other guy uses is that he looks at who is refereeing the game. I'm not sure how much weight it can hold but it is worth considering. I know the Villa v Fulham match the other day, the referee hadn't overseen any 0-0 games, and sure enough there was a penalty. Obviously it wasn't just for the sake of a goal, but it's worthwhile to at least consider these other factors.
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Old 26-10-2006, 22:51   #10 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

Thanks for the interest and input lads, but I'm just going to stick with the basics, laying 0-0 following a 0-0.

I am still going to stick with league games but it would have been worthwhile using cup games as the Watford and Charlton games during the week both produced goals, but if my "theory" works I should still pick them as winners anyway but will be pig sick if they draw 0-0 again !

Going to start with a bank of 1000 points and bet
50 points per game as this stage, all bets with betfair

Games for this weekend as follows;

FRIDAY

Burnley v Preston layed 0-0 at 10.50

SATURDAY

Newcastle v Charlton layed 0-0 at 11.00

Watford v Spurs layed 0-0 at 11.50

Crystal P. v Plymouth layed 0-0 at 12.50

Macclesfield v Mansfield layed 0-0 at 13.50

Wrexham v Bristol Rvs layed 0-0 at 14.00

Cheers,

GM
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Last edited by Garman; 01-11-2006 at 20:34. Reason: Update results
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Old 01-11-2006, 20:29   #11 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

Thanks for the interest and input lads, but I'm just going to stick with the basics, laying 0-0 following a 0-0.

I am still going to stick with league games but it would have been worthwhile using cup games as the Watford and Charlton games during the week both produced goals, but if my "theory" works I should still pick them as winners anyway but will be pig sick if they draw 0-0 again !

Going to start with a bank of 1000 points and bet
50 points per game as this stage, all bets with betfair

Games for this weekend as follows;

FRIDAY

Burnley v Preston layed 0-0 at 10.50

SATURDAY

Newcastle v Charlton layed 0-0 at 11.00

Watford v Spurs layed 0-0 at 11.50

Crystal P. v Plymouth layed 0-0 at 12.50

Macclesfield v Mansfield layed 0-0 at 13.50

Wrexham v Bristol Rvs layed 0-0 at 14.00

Cheers,

GM



I must have been tempting fate there with the Watford and Charlton games, so definitley pig sick, especially after seeing the miss by Tommy Smith of Watford an open goal from 3 yards !!

But I'm in it for the long run so will see how goes over a period of time, but after what happended I will have to take a view on cup games.

Now what's the chances of a team having three 0-0's in a row ????????, what this space !

Bets 6
Winners \ Losers 4\2
Starting Bank 1000
Days Profit \ Loss - 84
Current Bank 916


Cheers,

GM

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The four rules to happiness in life:
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-Fcuk like you're on camera

Last edited by Garman; 01-11-2006 at 20:33. Reason: Update post
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Old 02-11-2006, 13:13   #12 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

Garman, if it continues like this for a while, it might be worth considering the other side of the coin....i.e BACKING 0-0 following a goalless draw!!
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Old 03-11-2006, 15:15   #13 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

Hey Danny mate, you could be right, I'm maybe onto something by default here, I will keep some figures for actually betting on the 0-0's and see how that pan's out !



Anyway bets for this weekend are as follows;

FRIDAY

Darlington v Chester layed 0-0 @ 13.00


SATURDAY

Charlton v Man City layed 0-0 @ 10.50

Newcastle v Sheff Utd layed 0-0 @ 11.00

Watford v Spurs layed 0-0 @ 10.50

Grimsby v MK Dons layed 0-0 @ 14.50

Hartlepool v Barnet layed 0-0 @ 14.00

Shrewsbury v Wycombe layed 0-0 @ 12.00

Walsall v Torquay layed 0-0 @ 14.50, H2H so double stakes !!


SUNDAY

Spurs v Chelsea layed 0-0 @ 11.00


As there's "absolutely no chance" of a team having 3 0-0's in a row I did seriously consider trying to recover my losses on Charlton and Watford in one fell swoop. But changed my mind as Man City and Boro aren't that renowed for their goal scoring prowness away from home, but with 3 and 4 goals scored respectively they are ahead of a numbers of teams including Spurs and Liverpool and Sheff Utd who haven't scored yet !!. However, Man City have conceded the most goals on the road with 13 !

Anyway that would have blown the system if I did by some remarkable twist of fate loose, and of course before I'm scolded by my peers I know there's nothing such as "an absolute" in football, apart from Scotland qualifying for EURO 2008 and Rangers winning the UEFA Cup !!

Cheers,

GM

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Old 07-11-2006, 19:38   #14 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

After what happened with Charlton and Watford when they scored in cup games but had consecutive 0-0's in the league I'm going to go against what I said at the start and include cup games as well, Bury v Wrexham is a league game the others are not, bets for tonight are as follows

TUESDAY


Bury v Wrexham layed 0-0 @ 16.50 !

Notts County v Wycombe backed 1 goal + @ 12.50

Kilmarnock v Motherwell layed 0-0 @ 15.00


Will post up result sfor the weekend soon, but thought I'd better get this up first.

Cheers,

GM

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Old 07-11-2006, 19:53   #15 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

FRIDAY

Darlington v Chester layed 0-0 @ 13.00


SATURDAY

Charlton v Man City layed 0-0 @ 10.50

Newcastle v Sheff Utd layed 0-0 @ 11.00

Watford v Spurs layed 0-0 @ 10.50

Grimsby v MK Dons layed 0-0 @ 14.50

Hartlepool v Barnet layed 0-0 @ 14.00

Shrewsbury v Wycombe layed 0-0 @ 12.00

Walsall v Torquay layed 0-0 @ 14.50, H2H so double stakes !!


SUNDAY

Spurs v Chelsea layed 0-0 @ 11.00



There's always one is there ! I should have maybe gone for it and tried to recover my losses with Charlton and Watford, will have to decide if I will before Shrewsbury's next game?

Anyway for the weekend ended down 12 points.

Bets 116
Winners \ Losers 13 \ 3
Starting Bank 1000
Days Profit \ Loss - 12
Current Bank 904

Cheers,

GM
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Old 11-11-2006, 11:16   #16 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

After what happened with Charlton and Watford when they scored in cup games but had consecutive 0-0's in the league I'm going to go against what I said at the start and include cup games as well, Bury v Wrexham is a league game the others are not, bets for tonight are as follows

TUESDAY


Bury v Wrexham layed 0-0 @ 16.50 !

Notts County v Wycombe backed 1 goal + @ 12.50

Kilmarnock v Motherwell layed 0-0 @ 15.00




That's more like it, all winners for a change !


Bets 19
Winners \ Losers 16 \ 3
Starting Bank 1000
Days Profit \ Loss +11
Current Bank 915

Cheers,

GM
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Last edited by Garman; 11-11-2006 at 11:29. Reason: update message
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Old 11-11-2006, 11:28   #17 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

Bets for the weekend are as follows, after the way things have gone i'm going to include cup games but not going to adapt the "sh*t or bust theory" to recover lost funds as part of the strategy, but I will keep a note of the figures anyway just to see how that works out.

SATURDAY

Hull v Wolves backed 1 goal or more @ 1.10

Sunderland v Southampton backed 1 goal or more @ 1.09

Brentford v Doncaster layed 0-0 @ 13.00

Orient v Notts County layed 0-0 @ 13.50

Shrewsbury v Hereford layed 0-0 @ 13.50


SUNDAY

St. Mirren v Celtic layed 0-0 @ 19.50 these odds are steep bit Celtic don't do 0-0's, don't they ??


Cheers,

GM

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Old 13-11-2006, 18:08   #18 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

Bet for tonight,

MONDAY

Macclesfield v Walsall layed 0-0 @ 12.50

Will post up results for the whole weekend later, but let down badly by Shrewsbury, that's 3 in a row for them.

Cheers,

GM

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Old 13-11-2006, 19:21   #19 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

I'll let you into a secret mate, I avoid any team that has drawn 0-0 recently. I did this for a very good reason!!!

(Backing still may be the way forwards you know mate)
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Old 14-11-2006, 21:57   #20 (permalink)
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Default Re: "One Goal or More Will Do" from another angle !

SATURDAY

Hull
v Wolves backed 1 goal or more @ 1.10

Sunderland v Southampton backed 1 goal or more @ 1.09

Brentford v Doncaster layed 0-0 @ 13.00

Orient v Notts County layed 0-0 @ 13.50

Shrewsbury v Hereford layed 0-0 @ 13.50


SUNDAY

St. Mirren v Celtic layed 0-0 @ 19.50 these odds are steep bit Celtic don't do 0-0's, don't they ??

Macclesfield v Walsall layed 0-0 @ 12.50


Results a bit disappointing to put it mildly after I'd thought I was starting to get some of the bank back, but not to worry, at least I'm only playing with points and not real money !

What now Shrewsbury making it 4 in a row, ho ! ho ! ho ! ( sorry is it too early to be in the xmas mood !!)


Bets 26
Winners \ Losers 21 \ 5
Starting Bank 1000
Weekends Profit \ Loss -80
Current Bank 834

As suggested by Danny Cash I should probably use this as a system for actually finding and not avoiding 0-0's, if I did I would be + 154 points, now I know how Christopher Colombus felt !!

But it's giving me a few ideas as to how best to tweak the system so as it actually works !!

Cheers,

GM
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-Fcuk like you're on camera
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