The OA draw challenge - reloaded.

What a wonderfully horrible weekend for the draw.

Bielefeld-Kaiserslautern: 3,30
Roma-Brescia: 3,40
Union B-Reutlingen: PP
Trier-Mannheim: 3,35
Torino-Modena: 3,15
Empoli-Perugia: 3,15
Milan-Lazio: 3,20

Going by my stats, look out for a blitz in the coming days...

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Played: 77
Profit: -12,65 units

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Accas:
This weekend: -100 (out), 15 (in) units
Played: 21
profit: 585 units

Frankfurt-FCK: 3,15
Leicester-Pompey: 3,35

Told ya'

Frankfurt-FCK: 3,15
Leicester-Pompey: 3,35

Played: 79
Profit: -8,15 units

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Accas:
-20 (out), 200 (in) units
Played: 22
profit: 765 units

Arsenal-Ajax: 3,80
Barca-Inter: 3,00
Bayer-New: 3,25
Roma-Valencia: 3,10
Gillingham-Wimbledon: 3,40
Cheltenham-Barnsley: 3,30

(by the way - 6 of the 8 CL corresponding CL fixtures last season - first game after winter break - were draws...)

Arsenal-Ajax: 3,80
Gillingham-Wimbledon: PP

Picks: 22/82
Profit: -9,35 units

(I've cleansed it of the PP games)

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Accas:
-60 (out), 0 (in) units
Played: 25
profit: 705 units

Real-Dortmund: 4,00
Gladbach-Wolfsburg: 3,30
Fulham-WB: 3,40
Troyes-Lille: 3,00

Almost forgot...

Draws in 6 of the 8 UEFA games tonight (minus Porto & Pana)

Will post the odds of the winning picks later - gotta run.

Lazio-Wisla: 3,80
Malaga-AEK: 3,30

Picks: 24/92
Profit: -12,25 units

NOTTINGHAM FOREST v STOKE CITY - 3.60
SHEFFIELD UNITED v NORWICH CITY - 3.40
CHELSEA v BLACKBURN ROVERS - 3.50
SCHALKE 04 v BORUSSIA DORTMUND - 3.30
KAISERSLAUTERN v HAMBURG - 3.30
HANNOVER v BAYER LEVERKUSEN - 3.40
GUINGAMP v PSG - 3.10
SEDAN v BORDEAUX - 3.10
COMO v JUVENTUS - 3.65
LENS v MONTPELLIER - 3.20
TORINO v AC MILAN - 3.25
LYON v RENNES - 3.35
UDINESE v ROMA - 3.15
BRESCIA v REGGINA - 3.10
BURGHAUSEN v FRANKFURT - 3.25
LAZIO v ATALANTA - 3.25
WEST BROMWICH ALBION v WEST HAM UNITED - 3.30
MODENA v CHIEVO - 3.15
HERTHA BERLIN v ARMINIA BIELEFELD - 3.75
SEVILLA v ESPANYOL - 3.20
VfB STUTTGART v BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH - 3.65
REAL SOCIEDAD v OSASUNA - 3.25
RECREATIVO DE HUELVA v ATLETICO MADRID - 3.10
MALAGA v CELTA DE VIGO - 3.15
KARLSRUHER v AACHEN - 3.20

Could be about to throw in the towel here.

In now over 100 picks here and more than 100 in the previous go, I have not been able to produce a profit from single betting the draws.

If I have learned anything with regard to single betting on draws, it is that less is more. Stick to the few really strong selections (this weekend for instance Schalke-Dortmund and a few Italian games). Not sure whether that would indeed produce a profit though.

My experience clearly is, though, that draws are better played in system - be it 3 from 4, 6 from 8 or whatever. It is the closest football betting comes to a lottery, so I find it wiser - and so far more profitable - to treat it as such.

The fact that I am in the plus on the system-bets is somewhat besides the point, although I doubt my bank-manager would agree It would take too much time for me to post the system-selections here (did 8 in this weekend alone), and I don't really have that time available right now.

Anyway - thanks for the attention

SCHALKE 04 v BORUSSIA DORTMUND - 3.30
TORINO v AC MILAN - PP
BURGHAUSEN v FRANKFURT - 3.25
LAZIO v ATALANTA - 3.25
HERTHA BERLIN v ARMINIA BIELEFELD - 3.75
MALAGA v CELTA DE VIGO - 3.15 (not finished)

Picks: 27/116
Profit: -24,35 units

Well at least you tried. You were the only one to do so. Thanks for your efforts. The challenge remains open.

Thanks OA

Looks like I cheated myself a bit on the math, though.

It should properly be:

Picks: 29/116
Profit: -19,55 units

Still not under -20 then - I'm gonna give it one last go...

+ I'll also try out a "strong selections" strategy, to see if that fares any better.

Since I do the picks anyway for my system, why not dump them in here?

Do not stop with this thread Da Hannanah. It can be still succesful. I personally do not bet on single draws but even this can be slightly profitable. I am using 2 of 7 or 2 of 9 which is giving slight profit so far and I hope it is possible to hold on.
wish you good luck with draws and be patient.
P.S. sorry for my English:

OA, I'm sorry if I'm missing the obvious, but what exactly is the challenge? Singlebetting draws to a profit in 100 bets?

I'm keen for a challenge and I like the draws...

It was actually posted in Britain quite some time ago. The challenge is to demonstrate that you can make a profit from single betting on draws. 100 would not be enough to prove conclusively that you had an edge although we have not decided what would be sufficient I would be looking at 500 at least, some (Joe) would say 1000. For my Home value system I will not be drawing (pun not intended) any conclusions until the end of the season at which time I may have reached around 700 bets.

Are you up for it? Same goes for correct scores, but at these odds we would definitely need around 1000 bets, perhaps more. (Joe?)

Right, 5 picks tonight then:

Stuutgart-Celtic: 3,20
AEK-Malaga: 3,10
Anderlecht-Pana: 3,50
Liverpool-Auxerre: 3,25
Boavista-Hertha: 3,30

I am also making AEK-Malaga the first bet in the "strong tips" selection.

I sort of gave up on updating this thread, but if you guys have no problem therewith, I have had 6 picks since last, which I might as well throw in the equation. For proving purposes, 2 of the 3 winning picks were actually posted in another forum before KO - just for the record.

Stoke-Walsall: lost
Inter-Barca: 3,25
Utrecht-Heerenveen: 3,50
Wolves-Watford: 3,50
Gills-Norwich: lost
Crewe-Wigan: lost

I'm up for it, sure thing. But I'm not starting yet because I want to research a bit more first. I'll start a Lardonio draw challenge when I'm ready to post the first picks, hopefully this weekend. I'm gonna stay in the Lounge for a while so I might as well do this project as I've always wanted to try it....

Picks: 32/126
Profit: -19,30 units

recently i have started to look at different ways of predicting results using stats rather than just going for gut instinct (which is rarely right :o )

might give this a go myself.... possibly have a shot at a scottish thread..... watch this space (well not this space, but another space which i will start somewhere else..... oh never mind)

Probably a little bit of chasing involved, but here's 6 for Friday.

ST TRUIDEN v STANDARD LIEGE - 3.50
ROTHERHAM v SHEFFIELD UNITED - 3.35
NICE v NANTES - 3.10
MAINZ v ST PAULI - 3.85
MANNHEIM v REUTLINGEN - 3.20
FRANKFURT v KARLSRUHER - 3.75

Strong pick - no surprise: Nice-Nantes.

Strong picks so far: -1 unit