The OA draw challenge - reloaded.

hey bro de hannanah,how do u picks game tt draw and isn't it a big risk u are taking since games normally end in winorlose.

It's a risk for sure - after all, a 1/3 record equals a profit, so you gotta be prepared to loose most of your picks.

I've been doing this for quite some time now, so a lot of it is hunch and experience by now (I can remember a lot of the draw prone encounters by heart), but there are also a few perimeters to go by:

1. History. Some encounters have a big draw tradition = higher probability.

2. Local encounters. They normally are either very draw prone or never finish in draws. Check their history.

3. Recent games. Very important to check - a lot of recent draws means higher probability.

4. Season stats. Somewhat less important, but also check the stats for home and away on the season for either higher or lower probablities.

5. Top & bottom clashes. When there's much at stake, teams tend to play it safer = higher probability.

6. Don't be afraid of the big teams - they also draw some times (I had Lazio, Liverpool and Real at home this weekend, for instance). But only if the stats say its probable, of course.

7. It's a risk game, so play it that way. I don't do singles, cause I risk loosing them all on a bad day. Better to do accas, where the stake-risk is lower and the potential win on a good day far, far greater, since the odds very rarely go below 3.

It's a risk game, so play it that way. I don't do singles, cause I risk loosing them all on a bad day. Better to do accas, where the stake-risk is lower and the potential win on a good day far, far greater, since the odds very rarely go below 3

Is the risk of losing not higher with an acca?
I would have thought the best way for you would be to use singles in parallel with a small stake acca, that way you should make a profit a lot of the time and every now and then get a big bonus?

Nice yield by the way, hope it lasts for you!

Thanks for your tips,but wat is singles and accas?

5. Top & bottom clashes. When there's much at stake, teams tend to play it safer = higher probability.


won't top n bottom clashes normally end in top teams winnnig?

Federer:

Top v. Top
Bottom v. Bottom



Madmick - I've tried it a few times an I just don't have the nerve to do it. The risk is greater of loosing with the accas of course, but the stakes are smaller, and the potential gains are higher.

Although I do believe in the draws, it aint exactly rocket-science...

Also, I'm just not one of those guys, who'll appreciate a 5% increase in funds over a year. I need big swings

Federer-

singles = 1 game in a bet
accas = more games in a bet

Didn't have a single bet all Monday, so now I'm really trigger-happy

The following 2 on Tuesday do look good, although I don't know crap about the lower nationwides...

Darlington-Rochdale: 3,40
Torqui-Exeter: 3,50

I've also done a small stakes acca on draws in all 7 games on Tuesday. Call me a ******...

how do u have the time to anaylsis so many different leagues?

I make time

Today, there's only 7 games, so picking a few didn't take long.

In the weekend, I normally only do research on 12-13 leagues - Germany I & II, England Prem & I, Italy, Spain, France, Holland, Belgium, Portugal, Scotland, Denmark, Sweden & Norway (last 3 not active yet).

It does take some time, but with the right internet-sites, it goes a lot faster. Also, when you've been doing this a while, you can eliminate about half of the games at first glance, which also helps a lot.

I cannot recommend -

sunsite.tut.fi/rec/riku/soccer.html

... too much. Its excellent.

Hope this helps

Didn't have much success with this the last time I tried, but every time I looked at the fixtures, most of them screamed draw at me with such a force that I couldn't resist.

13 picks - no less - and that's only after cutting down hard

Georgia-Moldova: 3,75
Latvia-Lithuania: 3,00
Bulgaria-Hungary: 3,10
Croatia-Poland: 3,00
Tunesia-Sweden: 3,00
Algeria-Belgium: 3,10
Greece-Norway: 3,10
Romania-Slovakia: 3,10
Holland-Argentina: 3,00
Slovenia-Switzerland: 3,00
Italy-Portugal: 2,95
Nth. Ireland-Finland: 3,00
Scotland-Ireland: 3,10

I have also made a few accas. Here's to hoping

WHen u do accas,how u calculate your winnings?

Federer - are u for real

Anyway - when you fill out the bet with the bookie, it usually states how much you stand to win.

It's quite simple though - stake x odds = winnings 8o

On an acca, the odds are multiplied, so if you have 3 draws in an acca at 3 each, it 3 x 3 x 3 = 27 x stake = winnings.

oic,thanks for your explantion.

It seems I have now proven twice that friendlies DO NOT always result in draws

Georgia-Moldova: 3,75
Bulgaria-Hungary: VOID
Croatia-Poland: 3,00

Played: 47
Profit: -2,20 units

------

Accas - profit: 660 units, yield: 300%

Duisburg-Karlsruhe: 3,20

Man U-Arsenal: 3,40
Brugge-Standard: 3,85
HSV-Wolfsburg: 3,45
1860-Bayern: 3,50
Bielefeld-Kaiserslautern: 3,30
Schalke-Stuttgart: 3,30
Rotherham-Coventry: 3,35
Southampton-Norwich: 3,60
Swindon-Wycombe: 3,40
Willem II-Roda: 3,45
Breda-Excelsior: 3,50
Espanyol-Barca: 3,20
Roma-Brescia: 3,40

Crystal P-Leeds: 3,40
Twente-NEC: 3,40
Aachen-Burghausen: 3,35
Union B-Reutlingen: 3,15
Trier-Mannheim: 3,35
Torino-Modena: 3,15
Reggina-Como: 3,25
Piacenze-Bologna: 3,10
Parma-Juve: 3,15
Empoli-Perugia: 3,15
Bilbao-Sevilla: 3,25
Alaves-Villareal: 3,20
Santander-Rayo: 3,25
Atletico-Mallorca: 3,25
Milan-Lazio: 3,20

Poland-Macedonia: 3,30

Makes it an even 30...

Sorry but I noticed you had picked the Brugge game. Any reason behind this- its just Im due to lump on them to win if Rangers beat Hearts and had been wondering why there odds were longer than normal- especially after their 8-0 away win

No probs, bcracy

It is one of the more skinny selections this weekend, but looking at H2H, Brugge have not had the best of times with Standard at home over the past few seasons - last year they lost the fixture, and the year before that, it was a draw.

On top of that, Standards league form is quite good (4-2-0 in last 6 league fixtures), and they do have a tendency to nick draws v. the big two - Anderlecht and Brugge.

Brugges home stats are faultless, of course, but if they are to drop points at home, it will be against either Anderlecht or Standard (and they have already beaten Anderlecht at home this season). The odds are very good indeed for the draw, and although Brugge are favourites, I do see the draw chance as about or just above 30%, which is excellent at 3,85.

Dunno what the odds are for the 1, but Im not sure this is the one you would want to lump big on. Not worth it, me thinks, although it is the most probable result...

D H

have you seen my "bottom half system" which sometimes throws out a lot of draws. My system is following the higher price team to win but if I did Draw+win, I would have a much higher return.

you've got 30 this week! phew. How many draws you expecting - 8? Max. You need approx 9 to break even - sounds feasible.

good luck

On average, I'm about 1 from 3, but on any given saturday/sunday I can go as high as 60%-70%. Once or twice, I have even been close to 100%, but with fewer picks (6-8) . On the other hand, I have had a few 1 in 8 weekends or so. It's a bit topsy turvy

Needles to say, those are the ones I'm gunning for

So - I'm expecting around 10, hoping for 15 and dreaming of 20 or maybe a little more... With my acca-system, it then all depends on how they fall.

Will check out your system more later (think I have just glanced it a few times before) - promised my girlfriend to go on a field trip today