The OA draw challenge - reloaded.

8 picks tonight - like a good TV-chef I always have something cooking in the oven...

Sedan-Auxerre - 3,10
Montpellier-Starssbourg - 3,10
Bastia-PSG - 3,10
Lens-Bordeaux - 3,10
Troyes-Nice - 3,10
Lazio-Roma - 3,10
Deportivo-Mallorca - 3,25
Sunderland-Blackburn - 3,40

Centrebet prices.

As this is the first round, I guess I'll throw in a little talk here

Sunderland-Blackburn have a 2-6-2 history from their past 10 encounters, and all 3 meetings between the two teams this season have been draws!

Deportivo-Mallorca have a 3-5-1 history in 10, and their previous meeting in Depo this season was a 2-2 draw.

Lazio-Roma haven't really drawn that much in recent seasons, but I just couln't leave it be...

The french picks are based on home and away statistics - for instance, Montpellier have drawn 46% of their home games so far this season, and Nice have drawn 50% away!

Lens-Bordeaux has been a draw for the past 3 seasons, and to boot, Lens is the most draw prone team in the league (42% H/A).

PSG tens to do well at Bastia (as one of few teams), but they have had a run of very low scoring games away recently (0-0, 0-0, 1-0), so this one could very well be a bore draw, and the same pretty much applies to Auxerre away at Sedan, where 2 of the previous 3 encounters in past seasons have been draws.

I forgot to add that besides from being very drawn prone at home, Montpellier-Strassbourg has been a draw in the past 3 outings, and both teams find it very hard to score goals in recent games (both clubs have scored 4 goals in the last 6).

In Troyes-Nice, Troyes haven't scored a goal in 5 games now, and Nice have only managed 1 in their last 3.

Good to see it back. I am curious though why you are starting from scratch. As you said 100 bets is not conclusive no matter the results. If you carry on from before you will soon have 200 bets. The more bets the more significant the results are and the closer you will be to proving me wrong.

The other one was getting a bit heavy, and I can always add the results together when I finish this one...

I kind'a finished up the first one anyway by going away for so long and doing stats on it when I came back.

It's a momentum thing - nothing else to it

Also thought I'd change the syle of it a bit. Times change, and so does fashion... :hat

So-so start.

Lens-Bordeaux - 3,10
Sunderland-Blackburn - 3,40

Played: 8
Profit: -1,5 units

Note, however, that the games that were not draws were won by 1 goal only. This is sort of my measuring-rod of how far off I am, and if the games are close, I'm satisfied I made the right choice.

De Hanannah,

have you considered using the supremacy, spreads, or Asian markets to take advantage of those games where you are only a goal out, e.g. back your game to have a margin of 1 goal or less either way?

Handicaps and stuff - that would mean supporting ONE of the teams, right?

When you do an asian, how can that win you money if either team wins by one or the game is a draw?????????

Otherwise I'd have to do both home and away in asians, and that would be a little silly, would it not?...

For example you believe Chelsea and Fulham will draw.

So you back Chelsea+0.5 AND Fulham+0.5. If it is a draw, then both bets come in. If one team wins then you only lose the difference in the overround. Same idea with backing +1 goal in each case.

I think the Americans refer to this as 'middling'

Is there a typo here? Both teams in a match cannot be +0.5.

If I could get + 0,5 on both teams, I'd lump out big...

Thats for sure...

In some instances, I have seen this, but then the odds are so crappy that you do not get your stake back in any way if either side wins.

Let's say the game is odds 2,5 - 3,3 - 2,5

...or something to that effect.

You get maybe 1,3 or 1,4 on the + 0,5, so if either side wins, you loose 0,6 or 0,7 units.

My banker would not advice that, I am sure...

take the spreads as an example

Lets say someone is offering -0.3 goals and someone else is offering +0.2 then you would back one team to lose by less than -0.3 and the other to lose by more than 0.2. A draw and you are quids in, any thing else and the bets cancel (minus any charges, commission, overround etc)

The above example would be rare obviously, but such opportunities can exist. It does however illustrate the principle - bets on either side of your chosen outcome can leave you with a small downside and a large upside.

Take the Newcastle - Chelsea game on Sunday. Asian handicaps are available on betfair on both sides of the draw, e.g. you could back Newcastle on the 0&-0.5 and lay Arsenal on the 0&-0.5

What I was getting at in the previous post was that you might try to look at combining bets to set up an effective bet that says 'neither team to win by more than a goal'.

Now my head hurts - I'm going to lie down!

Liverpool-Boro: 3,75
Blackburn-Southampton:3,40
Hertha-Schalke: 3,30
Brighton-Wolves: 3,40
Ipswich-Shef U: 3,40
Grimsby-Stoke: 3,40
Lille-Lens: 3,00
Rennes-Monaco: 3,10
PSG-Montpellier: 3,45
Ajaccio-Marseille: 3,15
Nottingham-CP: 3,50
Real-Betis: 3,75

Not too bright...

Liverpool-Boro: 3,75
Rennes-Monaco: 3,10

Played: 20
Profit: -6,65 units

Lazio-Torino: 4,10
Brescia-Chievo: 3,10
Como-Parma: 3,10
Perugia-Milan: 3,20
NEC-Breda: 3,40
Ajax-Feyenoord: 3,40
Auxerre-Nantes: 3,20
Seville-Atletico: 3,20
Rayo-Malaga: 3,20
Bologna-Atalanta: 3,10
Newcastle-Arsenal: 3,40
Dundee-Dundee: 3,40

The biggets disappointment of my betting career by lengths - and the on such a good day

That 94th minute goal in Bologna-Atalanta cost me a good 4000£ on the accas. Christ - what happened???????? Why so much added time???????

Well, still a good day profitwise and for the draws - 7 from 12.

Lazio-Torino: 4,10
Brescia-Chievo: 3,10
Como-Parma: 3,10
Ajax-Feyenoord: 3,40
Seville-Atletico: 3,20
Newcastle-Arsenal: 3,40
Dundee-Dundee: 3,40

Played: 32
Profit: 5,05 units

Anyone of you guys ever tried something like this???

I could really use some comforting words right now

Btw., OA, with regards to the records for most profitable system, my personal records for the draw system I play since I started doing excell on it last week is:

(I play the draws as accas 4/6 and 6/8 - not as singles)

Played: 32
Staked: 150 units
Returned: 880 units

Total Profit: 730 units
Yield: 487%

Thought I'd just mention it