Not Another 'unders' System

[TheStatDoctor]

Hello All,

I notice that people already have 'over' and 'under' strategies up here, but I would like to share something with you to a) see if it actually works, and b) make me more disciplined in my staking and match selections.

The system I will be posting in 14 national leagues is primarily based on a team's last 3 homes v last 3 aways, but also takes into consideration league standings, current form and overall goal scoring/conceding ability.

I figured that most people like to do under bets in leagues where historically there is a high percentage of under games (like 55% or more over a few seasons, nearer 60% in some cases) and tried to work out what sort of strike rate you would need to break even, or hopefully make at least 10% yield. 10% over a season I would be pleased with, 15% I would be very pleased with, and anything more would be cracking!

eg.

If I backed every game in France A league last year (58% finished under) at average odds of 1.57, my calculation would be (58 x 0.57) minus 42% losing bets which is a loss of 8.94 points.

So, what strike rate do I need to break even at odds of 0.57? Well it's roughly 64% to make a slight profit of 0.48 points. To cut a long story short, I worked out the edge factor I needed to make 10% profit in each league using the above handicapping factors and have come up with a strike rate of somewhere between 69-74% for the 14 leagues I will be posting from. I then used the bare miniumum average odds of 1.50 as a yard stick and used the minimum strike rate of 69% and saw that this alone would give me a yield of just over 3%. BUT, the odds are more likely to be higher than 1.50 on average (more like about 1.59 I believe), and my strike rate is more like about 72% in most leagues, so hopefully we are getting nearer to that 10-15% yield.

Right, "shut up and get on with it!" I hear you say...

I will be posting my first selections very soon, but can only post once each team has played 3 home/3 aways in each league as this is the starting point of my analysis. All odds posted will be from Betfair by the way, which will hopefully boost the yield as I have been working from high street bookies prices from last year so I didn't over estimate my figures.

Wish me luck.

TSD

[Hodgey]

to PL TSD.

Good luck with this. Be interesting to see how it pans out.

[Matthew]

Welcome.

I will keep an eye on this. Very interesting.

Would you mind sharing the exact variables you use and what makes a pick a selection?

Is it just personal opinion or something more strict?

[F.]

Wish you the best of lucks


F.