Non-scientific AWAY Win System

I'd like to share my selections for Away wins (UK all leagues and Major European Leagues). I was told that this would be the best place to put it! The selection method is dead easy! The AWAY side is better and is going to win! (I mean it!)
I was going to post this week but put the UK bit in the wrong forum (Britain) and it got locked out. Anyway, it (the UK) had 5 winners from 8 but the whole lot, including Europe, produced 9 winners from 13.

Man City&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (LOST)
West Ham Utd&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (WON)
Sheffield Wednesday&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (WON)
Plymouth&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (LOST)
Hibernian&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (WON)
Falkirk&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (LOST)
Stranraer&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (WON)
Peterhead&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (WON)
B. Dortmund&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (WON)
Lyon&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (WON)
Monaco&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (WON)
Bordeaux&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (LOST)
Chelsea&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Away Win (WON)

I'll post the odds and all details in future. This weeked gives 69.2% strike rate, average odds = 2.19, turnover 13, Profit +6.78. (is it possible to cut and paste spreadsheets into a message?)

Hopefully this thread won't get blocked and we can see how it goes.

The reason I back away wins.....they're easier to find than draws and better value than homes. All very logical don't you think?

Cheers
€uro

It's up to Madmick and Odd-A whether your system actually qualifies as a system, but certainly this is the forum for this sort of thing

3 questions:

1. Is there a system or are they just played as singles?
2. I assume they are all 1 unit selections then?
3. What persuades you that these teams are better and going to win?

You say aways are better value than homes. How do you determine this? Do you compile your own odds for the games? If not how do you assess value?

The overround on away wins tends to be higher, so just blind backing them will lose more money than home wins.

On the other hand, my own studies do indicate that occasionally very good value can be found there.

Good luck with your system

Firstly, I have to say that I have been involved in soccer for many years and played professionally in my younger days. You need to know this in order to understand my reasoning.

There are two types of selections (nothwithstanding the fuzzy borderline cases): 1: the class act (ie Chelsea AWAY to Middlesboro and 2: Your HOME is no advantage (ie the lower Scottish leagues!)

The first one is obvious; invariably 'class' will come through and if there is an obvious supremacy for the away team then it has be considered. The second appraoch is, I believe, almost a well known fact; that when there is little crowd or atmosphere there is little home advantage (as in lower Scottish leagues). So when the away team has a slight edge in current form on the home team it too has to be considered. I have played at Anfield (granted it was a reserve team game), and, believe it or not, I have played at Cowdenbeath, and I can honestly say that there is a difference!

The value issue is a moot point - I think. There is no value at all in soccer these days unless you look really hard. Has there been a shift since we were allowed to bet singles everywhere?

I do not think that the odds really take into account the lack of home advantage in Scotland - but that is just my perception, not a fact. So that may be the only place of real value in this system.

I am currently betting in singles - I know that as soon as I perm them they will all lose - the great law of SOD dictates this! But I do have to say that trebles from the first 7 and trebles from the second 6 this week would've worked out nicely. And I had four from four in Scotland last weekend.

I am happy to record the performance of this on the basis of singles and trebles if you so wish - as long as a spreadsheet can be put in a message (can it?).

Anything else? Does this qualify as a system or is it just too woolly?

€uro

Carry on, we will be watching with interest. I think your are correct about the singles betting. When it was minimum multiples they could afford the odd mistake, knowing that you had to put it in an acca which would most likely go down. Now, you have all sorts of sharks pouncing on the slightest mistake. Does your heart not bleed for them?

Posting HTML is possible, but can't be explained in one sentence. I know Parahandy has a tutorial, he may arrange to send you a copy when he reads this. I'll let him know in case he misses it.

Don's worry about the format though, as long as it's readable. HTML takes time to do and not everyone has the time.

Good luck.

No decent Soccer around and hadn't considered Scandanavia....until now!

Sundsvall V Djurgarden AWAY WIN (Class selection) 1.64 on betfair
Jokerit V Allianssi AWAY WIN (Class selection - if a little woolly - Allianssi have a losing run at the moment - probability says a win is on the way ) 3.0 on betfair

(haven't looked for best odds, no time!)

Cheers

OK , I know, don't mess with the system. So the one of the Scandanvians let me down and the other is 2-1 up after 62 minutes.......I promise never to 'try something else' again! :o

The Spanish Cup throws up a number of CLASS AWAY selections. However, I have a new rule that says CUP matches are not included. Nothwithstanding this, all of these matches 'should' be AWAY wins - trouble is the prices reflect it too.....

Alicante ? - ? Villarreal
Compostela ? - ? Deportivo La Coruna
S.S.Reyes ? - ? Real Madrid
Atletico Gramanet ? - ? Barcelona
Gimnastic ? - ? Athletic Bilbao
Castellon ? - ? Valencia

€uroTips
Hi, did you not read Gordon's edit of your post in the racing forum? Check it out please.

Are these selections then or not. It is not clear from your post. Thanks.

Sorry - I'm just no good at this 'communication' lark. :o

As I said, CUP are not included. Therefore the games are not included. I merely raised the point that those games all fall into the CLASS team AWAY from home and therefore are worth "noting".

Trouble is CUP games seem to throw up more surprises than their fair share (is this true?) and also I have not really followed European Cups closely over the years.

So, sorry gain. NOT included in the system.

Ignoring the Internationals as they are 'cup' matches.
The domestic stuff in Europe is light. I would prefer to have at least 7 opportunities but can't see them for looking. Here are this weekends selections:

Hartlepool v Sheffield Wednesday (AWAY WIN)
Bradfored v Ipswich (AWAY WIN)
Derby v Wigan (AWAY WIN)

That's it :-(

System Stats:
10 wins, 5 losses, 6.42 points up.

It would be appreciated if you only included in your running total selections that you have posted on this thread before the event. That's the way it's done here. Thanks.

I will learn one day! It's just that I'm reading straight off my spread sheets. My wrists are bright red with all the slapping I'm getting.:o

No problem, have a look at the other guy's threads and the rules for the System's League and the pricing comp. Won't go far wrong if you do likewise.

How annoying: Hartlepool equalize in the 84th minute!

It's a beautiful game....

What a fantastic game football is.......
So Hartlepool came back in the 84th minute to foil my first selection and the Wigan threw away a two goal advantage to draw. At least Ipswich did the business but all in all I feel that the three selections were very valid and the results a little unlucky. What hurts even more is that more games that are AWAY wins at half time end up AWAY wins at full time - and Wigan decided to break the rules.

I have to recalculate the points because I'm not allowed to include the matches that I posted in the wrong thread previously.....

One last point, if the trend develops such that when the AWAY selection fails it results, more than likely, in a draw, then perhaps backing the AWAY team in a handicap and taking the draw out of the equation would be a better approach. Any comments or advice regarding this?

Cheers
Euro