My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan

[ANDYMC10]

I am testing a system where as long as I have 1 draw in every 8 games I will recover my bank and make profit. Firstly I will consider the reasons for draws in football matches. Reasons for draws in football matches
Try and find a match where both teams will have a tough time breaking each other down.
One way of doing this is looking for matches between an in-form mid-table side playing at home against a top-table away side
Another quick and easy way to identify potential draws is to study the Asian Handicap odds. Look for games where the handicap is set to (0) or level ball
This implies both teams are relatively evenly matched and the bookies don't want to offer a head start to either team. Games like this tend to draw more often than you might think.
Look for matches where both teams are more afraid to lose than more anxious to win.
Look for matches where two evenly matched teams are playing each other and both are afraid to lose.
1st leg of European games where both are big teams and afraid to concede
International friendlies between two evenly matched teams.
Matches where a draw result will suit both teams.
Both teams are low scoring at the moment.
Teams on a long unbeaten run to defend against a good team
A team on a losing run looking to break the sequence of defeats.

Now the staking plan:

Assume you will get odds of 9/4 on the draw and stake on a loss recovery system. A winning bet will return the win on your intitial stake as well as the losses on the previous bets until you strike a draw.
For example on cycle 1 below the initial stake is €123.80 with an available bank of €5,000. When you hit the draw your initial bank will increase by €278.55 (€123.80 x 9/4) to €5,278.55. You then start a new cycle with a new stake on the loss recovery plan of €130.50. As long as you find a draw in at least one of every 8 bets you will be making money and your bank will grow.


Starting bank €5,000

Bank bal
CYCLE 1
Draw 1 €123.80 Lost €4,876.20
Draw 2 €178.82 Lost €4,697.38
Draw 3 €258.30 Lost €4,439.08
Draw 4 €373.10 Lost €4,065.98
Draw 5 €538.92 Lost €3,527.06
Draw 6 €778.44 Lost €2,748.62
Draw 7 €1,124.41 Lost €1,624.21
Draw 8 €1,624.15 Won €5,278.55


Then Start again with staking plan on new balance.


I will submit my first bets later today on this plan.

[ANDYMC10]

First bets using new staking plan and going live after testing

Bet 1

Borussia Dortmund v Hoffenheim Sat 2.30

12/5 with PP

Dortmund drawn 3 of last 4 and drawn 11 from 21

Hoffenheim drawn 3 of last 5

Bet 2

Nantes v Grenoble 6pm Sat 2/1 with PP Nantes drawn last 2 Grenoble drawn last 3 Bet 3 Hull v Blackburn, 12:30 Sun 9/4 PP Both teams happy to stop the rot and take a draw Bet 4 Almeria v Getafe 4.00 Sun 9/4 PP Getafe drawn 4 in a row and won 1 from 9 Almeria undeaten in 2 Bet 5 Real Betis v Villareal 8.00 Sun 9/4 PP Both team looking to consolidate and will be happy with the draw

[humblecooper]

Great strategy if you had an infinite bank balance.

This staking stategy has far too high a variance for me

[ANDYMC10]

I understand what you are saying humble but my paper testing since the start of the season has been good, as long as you are disciplined and go for matches that you really believe have a a good probability of the draw you will be able to find enough draws. My longest losing run without finding a draw to date is 6 matches once, average is about 3 and I have gone though 30 cycles. You need to be disciplined and follow the strategy of finding draws. We will see how the system goes now I am going live, I am using €5,000 of my own savings to implement the system as I really do believe in it. As long as I strike a draw in at least 1 in 8 matches the system cant lose and you will double your money in 13 cycles.
So we will see.

[humblecooper]

If you are getting at least 9/4 on the draw, then this implies not a draw has a probability of 1/3.25=0.7

Therefore, you will go bust if there are nine no draws in a row:
=0.7^9=0.037

So your 30 cycles in a row could just be luck. You'd be expected to bust out 1 in every 27 cycles.

I'd urge you to at least limit this to say a half or fifth of your bank before you plough in.

And see if you can get better odds on BF

[ANDYMC10]

Hi Humble,

Thanks for the advice, I understand your maths but going bust 1 in every 27 cycles is based on picking the draw selections with a pin rather than careful analysis and what matches might actually be draws. I understand there is a certain element of luck involved with draws but if you do your homework I think you can get a reasonably good strike rate on draws and more than enough to cover the 1 in 8 cycle. I agree with you about using Betfair and I do as 9/4 in PP equates to around 3.45 on Betfair usually but I will use the PP prices for this forum.

[Kanga]

Andy - Could you post the strike rate of the system, and how many bets you expect to place in a season - it's then possible to work out a likely losing run.

[ANDYMC10]

Well I haven't kept detailed records yet when paper testing but now I am going live I will keep detailed records, I suppose you would average 5/6 bets per week it depends on how many games you can find that you think may end in draws. So first live bets are tomorrow as already posted below, I will post the first results on Monday.

[ANDYMC10]

Starting bank €5,000

Bank bal
CYCLE 1
Bet 1

Borussia Dortmund v Hoffenheim Sat 2.30

€123.80 at 12/5 with PP
Result 0-0 WIN

New Bank €5,296.68

CYCLE 2
Bet 1
Nantes v Grenoble 6pm Sat 2/1 with PP
€131.15 at 2/1
Result 1-1 WIN

New Bank €5,559.18

CYCLE 3
Bet 1
Hull v Blackburn, 12:30 Sun 9/4 PP
€137.64 at 9/4
Result 1-2 LOST
Bet 2
Almeria v Getafe 4.00 Sun 9/4 PP

€198.81 at 9/4
Result 2-1 LOST
Bet 3
Real Betis v Villareal 8.00 Sun 9/4 PP
€287.17 at 9/4
Result 2-2 WON

NEW BANK €5,868.17

CYCLE 4
FIRST BET WILL BE €145.31


SUMMARY
Starting bank €5,000
Current Bank €5,868.17
Profit €868.17
Bets 5
Draws 3
Strike Rate 60%

Good start - my bank will double after 13 cycles as long as I get a draw in 1 in 8 games

[2good4u]

Originally Posted by ANDYMC10

I understand what you are saying humble but my paper testing since the start of the season has been good, as long as you are disciplined and go for matches that you really believe have a a good probability of the draw you will be able to find enough draws. My longest losing run without finding a draw to date is 6 matches once, average is about 3 and I have gone though 30 cycles. You need to be disciplined and follow the strategy of finding draws. We will see how the system goes now I am going live, I am using €5,000 of my own savings to implement the system as I really do believe in it. As long as I strike a draw in at least 1 in 8 matches the system cant lose and you will double your money in 13 cycles.
So we will see.

Hi Andy, great start with 3 draws out of 5. Do you know how many games you bet on during those 30 cycles?

I worked out the table of probabilities assuming the strike rate of 50% (I am sure you would be happy with that SR in the long run, even though you have 60% at the moment, or not? ) and the numbers are as follows:
TOTAL BETS PLACED

		100	200	300	400	500
4		99,84256	99,99975211	100	100	100
5		95,82005	99,82527981	99,9927	99,99969	99,99999
6		79,29584	95,71337893	99,11249	99,81625	99,96196
7		54,3569	79,16707446	90,49121	95,65989	98,01904
8		32,38835	54,28665256	69,09245	79,1029	85,87113
9		17,75795	32,36245564	44,3735	54,25163	62,3756
10		9,308266	17,75009321	25,40613	32,34953	38,64661

On the left side are numbers of W/L bets in a row out of 100, 200...500 bets placed. Probabilities in bold are for your system (8 W/L in a row). Now, I am sure that you can achieve 13 cycles in less than 100 games, because if not it would be like if each cycle had 7 losers in a row, yet you said the longest was 6 and average 3, so my guess is it won't take you more than 35-45 games to manage through 13 cycles. (I still give you pretty high strike rate based on your start but definitelly more than 26 games IMO (which would be 50% SR)

All of the above is in case that you have SR of 50%, which IMO is huge and quite unlikely in the long run, but who knows... The numbers are less and less favorable to you as your SR decreases but I am sure you already know that.

Anyway, my advice would be not to play this (nothing personal but I say it to any martingale I see ) since the chance of going broke even with 50% SR and even after only 50 bets would still be more than 17% (this is not in the table but I can put any additional numbers if you or someone else is interested) which is IMO still quite a big risk for the amounts you are dealing with.

But, since you have already decided to go with it and you are doing well for now, I wish you the best of luck and will follow this thread with interest.

Regards,

[ANDYMC10]

Hi 2good4u,

I understand and respect your calculations that you have made and I also know that the martingale is a loser and that is a mathematical fact.
There are a couple of things that are not considered however that I think can give me the edge and beat the maths with this system.

1. Value price on draws.
On Betfair and also at times with the bookmaker the draw is usually a good value price especially in games that have a good chance of a draw, the majority of punters are interested in a winner and back accordingly, draws are not sexy!

2. The luck factor
Although I accept there is a lot of luck in acheiving a draw in a game, luck does even it self out over time and hopefully does over the 8 game cycle.

3. Experience in finding draws
I have 25 years experience in betting and also in player and managing soccer teams, as much as the stats are important, the most important factor for me in finding draws is getting into the mind of the teams that are playing and assessing what kind of result is acceptable for them from the game based on where they are and where they want to go.

4. Discipline
With this staking plan you will win as long as you find 1 draw in 8 games, in other words (you dont have 8 losers in a row). When I get to the stage whereby I have had 4/5 losers in a row I will get even more disciplined in order to find the draw to get back on track.
For example on the longest losing run to date on the paper testing of 6 I didn't have a bet for 2 weeks until Man Utd played away to Villareal and this was a banker draw if there ever is such a thing.

Anyway is summary, I think there is value in betting in draws and all I have done is implement a staking plan that doubles your money in 13 cycles to complement my picks.
So watch this space!

[Hodgey]

Originally Posted by ANDYMC10

I have 25 years experience in betting

Then you should know that this is Martingale and long term this will bust you!

If you are as good at finding draws as you say you are then back them to level stakes.

[Crouch Potato]

Andy, do you have an end game in mind for this? From what limited amount I've read, you do seem quite adept at identifying games that are conducive to a draw. Regarding your use of the Martingale, I do actually believe that you could make this profitable with certain parameters. Say, for instance, if you stopped when the bank reach 25000 etc, at which point you restarted at 5000, I can entertain that it might be possible to make this a winning staking strategy, but if you are just going to use the entirety of the funds from the last cycle into infinity, then eventually you will go bust.

In any event I will follow this with interest, as I do feel you have the ingredients for a successful system, even if you haven't yet perfected the recipe (IMO).

[ANDYMC10]

Hi Crounch,

In response to your query you are right if this was a pure martingale you will eventually go bust, it is a mathemathical fact. My plan will be to go back to the original bank of €5,000 after 13 cycles when I have doubled my bank and then use the following system.

Cycle 1-13 Turn bank from €5,000 to €10,000
Then Bank €5,000
Start again
Cycle 14-26 Turn bank from €5,000 to €10,000
Then bank €2,500 - Total banked €7,500
Cycle 27-39 Turn bank from €7,500 to €15,000
Then bank €5,000 - Total banked €12,500

and so on, this is a plan and obviously the crucial cycle is 1-13 when with a bad run of 8 wipeout is possible, so we will see!

[ANDYMC10]

Current Bank €5,868.17
CYCLE 4
Bet 1
€145.31 on Blackburn v Everton 8.00 9/4 with PP
Blackburn can consolidate with draw after beating a freefall Hull on Sunday, Everton will be happy with a draw ahead of cup QF

[Kanga]

Andy, Did you know that with a 50% strike rate system .... e.g flipping a coin, betting red/black or odds/evens at roulette ... the maths says that you will hit a losing run of 8 in only 250 bets.

50% would be an incredible strike rate to achieve picking draws (and I'm impressed by your results to date).

You could be turning a winning system into a losing one with this staking method - the advantage you are seeking is to maximise returns but you are risking going bankrupt in the process and that can't be right.

[ANDYMC10]

Hi Kanga,

I understand what you are saying and the maths but I am not picking the draws with a pin or at random, there is certain skill level, knowledge of football that will hopefully ensure that I never hit the 8 losers in a row. We will see over time!

[PERFECT]

Well done!

[rabs]

congratulations Andy, I totally admire your confidence in your own ability to identify a draw and so far you rock

but please listen to the guys regarding the stakng system, you are taking a big risk, it may work but it may not.. play the safe route with your obvious expertise

[ANDYMC10]

CYCLE 4

Bet 1
€145.31 on Blackburn v Everton 8.00 9/4 with PP
Result 0-0 WIN - not bad to pick the only midweek premier league game that ends in a draw!

CYCLE 5
FIRST BET WILL BE €153.40

SUMMARY
Starting bank €5,000
Current Bank €6,195.82
Profit €1,195.82
Bets 6
Draws 4
Strike Rate 67%


Thanks guys it is actually going better than I expected, I am sure the strike rate will reduce with more bets but as long as I dont hit 8 losers in a row I will win everytime.
Thanks for the advice guys but for me it is unthinkable not to hit a draw in at least 1 in every 8 the main thing is not to panic when you are on a losing run and be patient and wait for the right opportunity. So for now I will keep with the current staking plan until I have done 13 cycles and doubled my starting bank and then do a review.