MLB! Bad pitching = Runs

[El_Stuart]

Just paper testing something here since i have no real means of backtesting this. Will see how it rolls and probably tweak some things as i go along.

Basic stuff to start with, the 2 key components of how well a pitcher is doing is WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched), and ERA. Now ERA is such an over-rated stat as it doesnt allow for runners scored by relief pitchers etc, so im going to use a stat called FIP ERA (FIP), this is a stat developed to attempt to remove the "luck" factor in pitching, and removes things a pitcher is proven not to have a lot of control over (stats available if anyone wants proof, lol).

Simple stuff really but ive just done a crap job at explaining lol. Theory is to take the games where BOTH starting pitchers' FIP is 5.00 or over, and BOTH starters have a WHIP of 1.50 or higher and then back the OVERS in that game (thought behind this is using those 2 stats removes all luck and concentrates on those really pitching poorly).

Starting Bank 100pts and all bets to a 5pt level stake

1 selection for today:

Chicago Whitesox @ Chicago Cubs OVER 8.5 RUNS (5pts @ 2.03 with PINNACLE)

-Masset (CWS SP) has a 5.39 FIP and 1.78 WHIP
-Zambrano (CHC SP) has a 6.04 FIP and 1.53 WHIP


Remember, Just a paper trail for now

[El_Stuart]

Always nice to start on a winner, 10.15pts returned

[welshman 2005]

i like this system,its simple and it makes sense.

how exactly do you work out the fip , if you dont mind sharing with us.

[El_Stuart]

Originally Posted by welshman 2005

i like this system,its simple and it makes sense.

how exactly do you work out the fip , if you dont mind sharing with us.

Well, i have no idea lol, I read about it somewhere and talk to a few stat guys on the net who seem certain that it is a true reflection on how well a pitcher is doing. I get all my numbers from www.hardballtimes.com and search for the relevent pitcher

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

hmm this could be tricky to do but shouldnt you take into account the total. I mean that whitesox and cubs total looked a little bit low, but if it had been 11.5 or summin, would it still be a bet...?

just a thought

[RonStaples]

Originally Posted by welshman 2005

i like this system,its simple and it makes sense.

how exactly do you work out the fip , if you dont mind sharing with us.

FIP=(13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP

[El_Stuart]

Originally Posted by whycantistayawayfromdogs

hmm this could be tricky to do but shouldnt you take into account the total. I mean that whitesox and cubs total looked a little bit low, but if it had been 11.5 or summin, would it still be a bet...?

just a thought

Well, that might be tricky but since i have no means of backtesting i dont know. Im just doing it on the theory that because its 2 poor pitchers pitching that their should be runs, and even if one of them has an outstanding start the chances of both of them happening are pretty low. Will just roll and see what happens, not sure how many picks i will actually get using my numbers but its just a starting point.

[El_Stuart]

There was no picks for last night, will check out todays games in a little while.

Am noting and following all the stats/scores for a while to see if altering the numbers used is realistic/required etc etc

[El_Stuart]

Apologies for the lack of updates, there hasnt been any selections that meet the criteria for 3 days now because it seems most teams had the better part of their rotations going at some point.

Am gonna keep checking it whilst i monitor some other things, hopefully the fact its not throwing many picks out will mean when they do come up, they SHOULD be decent bets.

[Yomica]

Interesting idea! Why you stopped this?

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

there genuinely arent many selections, ive tried this with the figures set at 1.35 and 4.2 (WHIP and FIP) and its seems to work okay, still only 1 or 2 selections, I chose these figures because they are about half way down the list of overall pitcher stats on that hardballtimes website.
I think ive gone 3 out of 4 since using it 3 days ago...

[welshman 2005]

Baseball starts again in 20 hrs time. Going to hijack this thread as I had a lot of success with it last season. And to give me something to keep me occupied whilst the soccer season is over. I wont start looking for picks until at least 15 games have come and gone. So that there is a little bit of something to go on.

1.35 W.H.I.P
4.2 F.I.P
going to keep the whip and fip, the same as last year.

see ya in 20 days time

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

lol i was just searching around for this thread because of the impending season, couldnt remember what figures were being used. i might do the following;

after probly a couple of weeks i would get a list of the WHIP and a list of the ERAs and split them into thirds or quarters sorted decended. then take the figures from that and adjust weekly as the stats change.

[welshman 2005]

starting bank - £200
no pick if odds under 1.6
each pick £25

Monday 28th April
Rockies v Giants - over 7.5 @ 21/20 bet365

Tuesday 29th April
no selections

[Sawyer]

how you calculate fip? in this site it says FIP records for teams only.
check out sagarin's site too good for nepra records