Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) - Page 6 - The Punters Lounge

lunatism · 12-02-2008, 03:31

AVERAGE ODDS
OVER		2.45	UNDER		1.45

SIMPLE OVER/UNDER 2.5
OVERALL			TOP LEAGUES
	over	under		over	under
bets	372	3200	bets	130	1118
wins	223	1761	wins	76	595
losers	149	1439	losers	54	523
strike rate	60%	45%	strike rate	58%	53%
STAKED	372	3200	STAKED	130	1118
RETURN	546	2553	RETURN	186	863
P / L	174	-647	P / L	56	-255
YIELD	47%	-20%	YIELD	43%	-23%

UNDERS BASED ON PREDICTED CS 0-0/1-0/0-1
OVERALL			TOP LEAGUES
bets		1367	bets		403
wins		804	wins		234
losers		563	losers		169
strike rate		59%	strike rate		58%
STAKED		1367	STAKED		403
RETURN		1166	RETURN		339
P / L		-201	P / L		-64
YIELD		-15%	YIELD		-16%


OVERS BASED ON CS PREDICTIONS OF 4 GOALS OR MORE
OVERALL			TOP LEAGUES
bets		36	bets		10
wins		28	wins		8
losers		8	losers		2
strike rate		78%	strike rate		80%
STAKED		36	STAKED		10
RETURN		69	RETURN		20
P / L		33	P / L		10
YIELD		91%	YIELD		96%

In this instance, it appears that overs will be more profitable, and so it just depends on the odds as to how profitable.

that is why below, you can see the same stats for overs of 2.00....

AVERAGE ODDS
OVER		2	UNDER		1.45

SIMPLE OVER/UNDER 2.5
OVERALL			TOP LEAGUES
	over	under		over	under
bets	372	3200	bets	130	1118
wins	223	1761	wins	76	595
losers	149	1439	losers	54	523
strike rate	60%	45%	strike rate	58%	53%
STAKED	372	3200	STAKED	130	1118
RETURN	446	2553	RETURN	152	863
P / L	74	-647	P / L	22	-255
YIELD	20%	-20%	YIELD	17%	-23%

UNDERS BASED ON PREDICTED CS 0-0/1-0/0-1
OVERALL			TOP LEAGUES
bets		1367	bets		403
wins		804	wins		234
losers		563	losers		169
strike rate		59%	strike rate		58%
STAKED		1367	STAKED		403
RETURN		1166	RETURN		339
P / L		-201	P / L		-64
YIELD		-15%	YIELD		-16%


OVERS BASED ON CS PREDICTIONS OF 4 GOALS OR MORE
OVERALL			TOP LEAGUES
bets		36	bets		10
wins		28	wins		8
losers		8	losers		2
strike rate		78%	strike rate		80%
STAKED		36	STAKED		10
RETURN		56	RETURN		16
P / L		20	P / L		6
YIELD		56%	YIELD		60%

of course still making the profit....but just not as much. now i'll have to keep an eye on that market too

lunatism · 12-02-2008, 03:38

definitely know that the overs will need a lot more data before it could be classed as "good", but a 78% strike rate isn't half bad, plus it's always nice to know it passed the Chi Squard Test too (99.9999805830307%)......i guess something else to sit on!

i'm still toying with the idea of starting a new thread for the CS, but now i wonder whether i should just carry on colecting data for the next month or so, popping up every week with an updated sheet of stats - or should i start posting the selections on here?

what do you (anyone!) think?

Punto Banco · 12-02-2008, 06:31

Wow you guyz get alot done while I am asleep and at work!!!!

Anyway personally I would just continue along in this thread... while making a separate thread for paper trailing would not be a terrible idea it may be a lot easier to just keep it all confined hear.... one thread is easier to manage than two and truly you probably don't quite have enough proof on some of this to

it yet therefore posting up bets etc could lead to being a big waste for yourself in a few cases... a page of stats with updated "overall results" I would think would be the better course of action.

happygooner · 12-02-2008, 08:32

Am I right in thinking you have really averaged out odds for under 2.5 market to 1.45???

I would be incredibly suprised if this were the case

Your strike rate for unders looks plenty good enough to profit averagely while your strike rate for overs (admittedly based on small numbers) is mightily impressive.

A strike rate of anything around 60% should be golden in the long run.

My own feelings on this would be to actually start posting selections. Nobody has to follow but it's good to see this thing working in practice.

1x2 market, over/unders, CS?
Multitude of qualifying leagues....

Have you struck gold in them there hills

lunatism · 12-02-2008, 09:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by happygooner

Am I right in thinking you have really averaged out odds for under 2.5 market to 1.45???

not at all - i didn't know what to use, so i just put that figure in (lower than the one that you gave me - so that at least it wouldn't be too high). Another reason i did this - when i was looking my data from the last time, not necessarily with the overa, but almost always with the unders, i would find that the bookies knew exactly which games were going to be low, and they would price the odds accordingly (not quite the same as they do with the CS). And so either the odds would be really low (not THAT low, but i was exaggerating), or they would only offer over/under 1.5 or 0.5 instead!

what i'm after is a reasonable average for the under - but i know that (based on past data....which for some reason did slip my mind before) the odds have never been so pretty for the unders when my system was involved

Quote:

Originally Posted by happygooner

My own feelings on this would be to actually start posting selections. Nobody has to follow but it's good to see this thing working in practice.

1x2 market, over/unders, CS?
Multitude of qualifying leagues....

what do you mean by "multitude of qualifying leagues"?

first, i'll get to seeing if there are any further ways to improve the strike rate by modifying the filters in place...and of course without reducing the sample sizes to nothing! and new ways of looking at the data, i'll immediately notify you guys

lunatism · 12-02-2008, 09:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaKDaddYSportsBET

Wow you guyz get alot done while I am asleep and at work!!!!

yep - i also get so much done while i should be at sleep and at work too!

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaKDaddYSportsBET

Anyway personally I would just continue along in this thread... while making a separate thread for paper trailing would not be a terrible idea it may be a lot easier to just keep it all confined hear.... one thread is easier to manage than two and truly you probably don't quite have enough proof on some of this to

it yet therefore posting up bets etc could lead to being a big waste for yourself in a few cases... a page of stats with updated "overall results" I would think would be the better course of action.

how about this for compromise (not like i even need one

)? I won't start a new thread (that will probably just fraction input i'm getting, plus i'll end up forgetting to post in one of the other), i'll post my selections in here, i'll start posting on saturday (but EVERYONE MUST understand, these are NOT to bet on, they aren't even selections in the sense of things, and are only being posted to show not only that i didn't make up any data, but also as sample size fodder!).

i'll split the posts into three tables - CS, 1X2 & Under/Over, the odds i post may not always be the best priced ones, but i'll be sticking to only one or two bookies for this, since in the long term there is no way i would (or recommend that you) open up 5/10 different account to up

12-02-2008, 03:38	#102 (permalink)
lunatism ...a little crazy Join Date: 21 Jul 2006 Location: Budapest, Hungary Age: 21 Posts: 709	Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) definitely know that the overs will need a lot more data before it could be classed as "good", but a 78% strike rate isn't half bad, plus it's always nice to know it passed the Chi Squard Test too (99.9999805830307%)......i guess something else to sit on! i'm still toying with the idea of starting a new thread for the CS, but now i wonder whether i should just carry on colecting data for the next month or so, popping up every week with an updated sheet of stats - or should i start posting the selections on here? what do you (anyone!) think? __________________ lunatism [loo-na-ti-zam]: common sense, local lore & statisticus

12-02-2008, 06:31	#103 (permalink)
Punto Banco aka "Big Mak" Join Date: 27 Nov 2006 Location: Dark Depths of the Jungle Posts: 1,071	Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Wow you guyz get alot done while I am asleep and at work!!!! Anyway personally I would just continue along in this thread... while making a separate thread for paper trailing would not be a terrible idea it may be a lot easier to just keep it all confined hear.... one thread is easier to manage than two and truly you probably don't quite have enough proof on some of this to it yet therefore posting up bets etc could lead to being a big waste for yourself in a few cases... a page of stats with updated "overall results" I would think would be the better course of action. __________________ MakDaddySportsBet RIP Top Fight Best Bets Visit my blogs (Only one)

12-02-2008, 08:32	#104 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,862	Re: Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss) Am I right in thinking you have really averaged out odds for under 2.5 market to 1.45??? I would be incredibly suprised if this were the case Your strike rate for unders looks plenty good enough to profit averagely while your strike rate for overs (admittedly based on small numbers) is mightily impressive. A strike rate of anything around 60% should be golden in the long run. My own feelings on this would be to actually start posting selections. Nobody has to follow but it's good to see this thing working in practice. 1x2 market, over/unders, CS? Multitude of qualifying leagues.... Have you struck gold in them there hills Last edited by happygooner; 12-02-2008 at 08:33.