Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by F.

hahaha... I think you did it right

hmmm, well, as you said before - we'll need to find more tests...other ways to poke the system......

i'm lost - generally (as far as testing has gone with me), i've always just looked at yield and strike rate and dashed any system/idea that wasn't showing profit - was aware of the Chi Squared Tests, but never applied it (forgot i guess), i have no idea what else i could do....(apart from getting hold of more past data)

but in the next few hours (or minutes), i'll get to work on some graphs that will show how each league performs....since i've nothing better to do

[lunatism]

right, as promised, the strike rate graphs to look over. All the leagues that HAVE fixtures involved are included, those that do not (such as Sweden ...etc) aren't, this to avoid clutter

here is the key:

AUS01	Australian A-League
AUT01	Austrian T-Mobile Bundesliga
AUT02	Austrian Red Zac 1.Liga
BLE01	Belgian Jupiler League
CRO01	Croatian 1. HNL Ozujsko
CZE01	Czech Gambrinus Liga
ENG01	English Premiership
ENG02	English Championship
ENG03	English League One
ENG04	English League Two
ENG05	English National Conference
ENG06	English National League Conference - North
ENG07	English National League Conference - South
ENG08	English Isthmian Premier Division (Ryman)
ENG09	English Northern Premier Division (UniBond)
ENG10	English Southern Premier Division (Southern)
FRA01	French Ligue 1
FRA02	French Ligue 2
FRA03	French National League
GER01	German 1.Bundesliga
GER02	German 2.Bundesliga
GRE01	Grecian Super League
IRE01	Irish Eircom League Premier League
ITA01	Italian Serie A
ITA02	Italian Serie B
NET1	Dutch Eredivisie
NET2	Dutch Jupiler League
POR01	Portuguese Liga bwin
POR02	Portuguese Liga Vitalis
RUS01	Russian Premier League
SCO01	Scottish Premier League
SCO02	Scottish Football League First Division
SCO03	Scottish Football League Second Division
SCO04	Scottish Football League Third Division
SPA01	Spanish Primera Division
SPA02	Spanish Liga BBVA
SWI01	Swiss Super League
SWI02	Swiss Challenge League
TUR01	Turkish Turkcell Süper Lig
TUR02	Turkish Lig A
WAL01	Welsh League Of Wales

(in case you wondered - those leagues that show nothing are 0% )

[leespam]

Originally Posted by lunatism

erm....well if ANYONE has any past form tables and league tables that can be looked at on a week by week basis for the leagues i listed above, that would be of great help......

Hi Luna, haven't read the whole thing but looks promising. I'd echo the previous posts in exercising caution though.

This link might be of interest to you. I don't think it'll cover all your leagues but it can give some tables after X amount of games:

http://www.stats.betradar.com/statistics/betway/

It's a bit drop-down heavy as well but hopefully it's of help in back-testing a bit further. Only right that I offer some input after all your help in my thread mate

[palaceman]

I'm not dismissing the data, but the danger of sub-dividing into leagues like that is that within each division, the number of matches involved in your research is greatly reduced (naturally) so it might be dangerous to draw conclusions based on much more limited numbers.

Just by way of example, those leagues that are showing 100% success at certain scores, could you let us know what number of matches that is based on in each one?

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by palaceman

I'm not dismissing the data, but the danger of sub-dividing into leagues like that is that within each division, the number of matches involved in your research is greatly reduced (naturally) so it might be dangerous to draw conclusions based on much more limited numbers.

Just by way of example, those leagues that are showing 100% success at certain scores, could you let us know what number of matches that is based on in each one?

you are 100% correct there palaceman, i thought so myself after posting those graphs - but i thought it would be the best way to show how each league is faring right now.....

the numbers are low (naturally, as you said), so what i propose is this - the overall stats are good, we know that - by delving deeper it can help identify leagues which aren't doing so well (as well as those that are), but to do this, i guess we'd need a sample size for each league too.........

what do you think would be sufficient? right now, the samples are WAY TOO small to draw any kind of conclusions (50/100/150 for each league?)

but ultimately, these individual league stats are a little irrelevent, as they ARE from smaller numbers of matches, and i don't believe I would EVER use this system to solely bet on one league.....just seems silly to me

biggest problem with the below tables is that it is trying to split 152 & 163 bets into around 31 leagues, on average only 4/6 selections per league. But these numbers should grow over the coming months anyhow


so here are the numbers:

1 - 0
COUNTRY	STRIKE	wins	losses
BLE01	20%	1	4
ENG01	14%	1	6
ENG02	17%	2	10
ENG03	0%	0	8
ENG04	38%	3	5
ENG05	20%	1	4
ENG06	0%	0	4
ENG07	0%	0	4
ENG08	33%	1	2
ENG09	0%	0	1
ENG10	0%	0	4
FRA01	56%	5	4
FRA02	57%	4	3
FRA03	0%	0	6
GER02	0%	0	1
GRE01	64%	7	4
ITA01	29%	2	5
ITA02	33%	2	4
NET1	0%	0	3
NET2	0%	0	5
POR01	25%	1	3
POR02	50%	1	1
SCO01	0%	0	3
SCO02	0%	0	1
SCO04	0%	0	1
SPA01	25%	2	6
SPA02	67%	4	2
SWI01	0%	0	2
TUR01	100%	2	0
TUR02	0%	0	1
WAL01	0%	0	6
sub total		39	113
total		152

1 - 1
COUNTRY	STRIKE RATE	wins	losses
AUS01	100%	1	0
BLE01	57%	4	3
ENG01	18%	2	9
ENG02	63%	5	3
ENG03	100%	11	0
ENG04	44%	4	5
ENG05	33%	1	2
ENG06	100%	5	0
ENG07	75%	3	1
ENG08	50%	1	1
ENG09	80%	4	1
ENG10	60%	3	2
FRA01	11%	1	8
FRA02	75%	6	2
FRA03	0%	0	2
GER01	100%	4	0
GER02	50%	2	2
GRE01	0%	0	3
ITA01	40%	2	3
ITA02	67%	6	3
NET1	63%	5	3
NET2	100%	11	0
POR01	50%	1	1
POR02	0%	0	3
SCO01	100%	2	0
SCO02	50%	1	1
SPA01	57%	4	3
SPA02	80%	4	1
TUR01	50%	1	1
TUR02	100%	2	0
WAL01	100%	4	0
sub total		100	63
total		163

...."perhaps" (???) it might be possible to suggest that the Netherlands 2nd and English League One are showing promise, but early days yet, and who knows for sure?!!

i really appreciate the input from you all over this particular strand of my system BTW